Healthy housing data disappoints merchants of doom

[Green_Bear]

The Irish housing market is experiencing “a roll back from the excesses of the last two years” rather than a full-blown recession according to official figures, which show a 16 per cent drop in house completions for January, compared with the same period last year.
The Sunday Independent has learned that over 4,858 houses and apartments were completed in the first month of this year.
Intriguingly, while house completions were down on a nationwide basis, output in the “critical high density” Dublin region was up by 6.1 per cent on 2007 figures, while it was up by 3.5 per cent in the equally important greater Dublin region.
Housing Minister Batt O’Keeffe claimed yesterday that the January figures “do not lend support to those who have been predicting the virtual collapse of new house output”.
Mr O’Keeffe noted that the figures, so far, were closer “to levels in 2003 and 2004, when 77,000 units were built rather than the catastrophic 40,000 units predicted by some of the doom and gloom brigade”.
The minister said indications were that up to 55,000 units would be built, and that all recent figures suggested that “the downward adjustment in supply [had] been more gradual than predicted”. >>>>

Healthy housing data disappoints merchants of doom
independent.ie/national-news … 91319.html

An output of 55,000 units brings us back to about 2001/2002 output levels.
40,000 units brings us back to 1998, 30,000 units brings us back to 1995, output under 25,000 units brings us back to the worst of the recession in the late 80s/early 90s.
There is a reasonably high probability that by 2011 we will see output around 25,000 units and around the same or lower in 2012, before output starts rising again.

[conor_mc]

I think it’s fair to say that Batt O’Keeffe is nothing short of a moron.

Apparently, everybody’s a Doom-and-Gloomer now, even the VI’s who told us that by slashing output, builders can maintain higher prices.

Newsflash Batt - high output is BAD, BAD, BAD for your “property market” because it WILL encourage a slump in prices.

This slashed output argument was the last crutch of the Property-Hypers, not the Doom-and-Gloomers…!!!

\rant off

[bugler]

Have we had “roll back” before? Add it to “soft-landing”, “healthy correction” etc.

[Dreaded_Estate]

I think the most important point is that 55k house completitions is far too many since we have over built significantly in the last few years.

[bugler]

Isn’t this the second time in the past month or so that Baffled Batt has pointed to a relatively high output rate as if it were a good thing?

[2Pack]

@bugler

Isn’t this the second time in the past month or so that Baffled Batt has pointed to a relatively high output rate as if it were a good thing?

Yep, its the equivalent of petrol on a fire in a country with 330k empties.

[kerrynorth]

@Green Bear

The Irish housing market is experiencing “a roll back from the excesses of the last two years” rather than a full-blown recession according to official figures, which show a 16 per cent drop in house completions for January, compared with the same period last year.
The Sunday Independent has learned that over 4,858 houses and apartments were completed in the first month of this year.
Intriguingly, while house completions were down on a nationwide basis, output in the “critical high density” Dublin region was up by 6.1 per cent on 2007 figures, while it was up by 3.5 per cent in the equally important greater Dublin region.
Housing Minister Batt O’Keeffe claimed yesterday that the January figures “do not lend support to those who have been predicting the virtual collapse of new house output”.
Mr O’Keeffe noted that the figures, so far, were closer “to levels in 2003 and 2004, when 77,000 units were built rather than the catastrophic 40,000 units predicted by some of the doom and gloom brigade”.
The minister said indications were that up to 55,000 units would be built, and that all recent figures suggested that “the downward adjustment in supply [had] been more gradual than predicted”. >>>>

Healthy housing data disappoints merchants of doom

independent.ie/national-news … 91319.html

An output of 55,000 units brings us back to about 2001/2002 output levels.
40,000 units brings us back to 1998, 30,000 units brings us back to 1995, output under 25,000 units brings us back to the worst of the recession in the late 80s/early 90s.
There is a reasonably high probability that by 2011 we will see output around 25,000 units and around the same or lower in 2012, before output starts rising again. This article is the biggest load of crap I have read in a long time. A 16% fall in January completions mirrors the 16% fall in starts last March. Pretty much on the money with the 9 month start to completion typical timelime. We also know that future monthly completions are going to be 30-40% down on 07. We know this from the 07 starts data. You cannot conjure completions out of thin air. The dye is already cast for 08 completions at no greater than 45k.

[Blindjustice]

@2Pack

@bugler

Isn’t this the second time in the past month or so that Baffled Batt has pointed to a relatively high output rate as if it were a good thing?

Yep, its the equivalent of petrol on a fire in a country with 330k empties.

@conor_mc

Newsflash Batt - high output is BAD, BAD, BAD for your “property market” because it WILL encourage a slump in prices.

Somewhere around halfway through the original AAM thread some came to the conclusion that this was irreversible, gone too far and that we were damned if we do and damned if we dont.

Its being illustrated now.

[jost]

Mr O’Keeffe noted that the figures, so far, were closer “to levels in 2003 and 2004, when 77,000 units were built rather than the catastrophic 40,000 units predicted by some of the doom and gloom brigade”.

Apparently Davy are now part of the doom and gloom brigade. Wasn’t 45k units given as part of their justification for the “3 stage recovery” that we’re going to see? It’s even repeated in today’s Tribune:

According to a recent report from Davy Stockbrokers, the Irish housing market is in the second stage of a three-part correction process, which will see sales eventually improve simply as a result of both price cuts and a reduction in new supply. Construction of new homes is expected to be around 45,000 by the end of this year, compared to over 88,000 last year.

[fishfoodie]

@conor_mc

I think it’s fair to say that Batt O’Keeffe is nothing short of a moron.

This is news to you ?

Do you seriously imagine any Politician with a IQ greater than the shoe size would touch his job with a twenty foot pole !

[Michael_Moloney]

@bugler

Isn’t this the second time in the past month or so that Baffled Batt has pointed to a relatively high output rate as if it were a good thing?

Minister Batt O’Keeffe and CIF Boss former Minister Tom Parlon should be allocated a site to keep a running log on their pronouncements on the
housing industry as by this time next year when the fall out is hammering all sectors a look back on their efforts to build a market on hot air will make for some reading.

[whizzbang]

I stopped listening to Batt after I heard him say “rents are going up, so that’s good news”

Minister for housing eh? Or should that be homeowners?

[daltonr]

Batt sees himself as the minister for House prices, not the minister for Housing.

It’s a bit like Mary Harney seeing herself as minister for illness.

-Rd

[Gatelodge]

@bugler

Isn’t this the second time in the past month or so that Baffled Batt has pointed to a relatively high output rate as if it were a good thing?

Baffling Baffled Batt