Hold off buying for 18 months?


#1

So it looks like a recession is inevitable. How long depends on how long this emergency lasts I guess.

Should anyone thinking of buying in 2020 hold off to 2021 or 2022? I would say Yes!


#2

More like who still has a job/work:ninja:


#3

Or could it be a cunning strategy to nip in ahead of those putting off the decision and grab a bargain. :icon_twisted:

Btw, just ran a quick check on myhome.ie as of today, March 20th. Asking prices in Dublin are slightly up on the start of the month. So even though I can’t imagine lots of people traipsing around to viewings, it certainly isn’t bargain hour yet.


#4

Don’t see this as a sustained depression. Deep V shaped recession for the year (as with all Countries) with a very quick rebound. Banks are healthy relative to 2018. Oil at rock bottom prices are actually a stimulus. All the debt Countries will take on will find its way into the economy. Key is to keep cash in the pockets of those hit hardest. Get them over this and their jobs will return.

In the long term some positives may come from this. Shines a much need light on the incredible work hospital staff do. I don’t see many people talking about the “trolley crisis” now.

Those is jobs which are actually important to the economy (incl. teachers) will become the focus.
Pent up demand will be very high for most consumer products / lifestyle discretionary spend.
If I could take an option on a pub licence for Sept 2020 I would.


#5

I don’t see pent up demand for discretionary spend - especially for those that have lost jobs.

I can only drink so many pints per night - and I won’t be making up for the lost number of pints over the last week.

It will take some time for vendors to realise the market has changed. Only those that need to sell will put their houses up for sale. It will then take some time for those transactions to close and then be disclosed to the price register. It will then filter into the expectations of some potential venders. Meanwhile those estates that need to sell houses will continue to sell. So I would wait for the 18 months if you can - but keep an eye out as something could pop up.

Someone looking at buying a house now will have to really think about their own job situation. I know a good few people already who have lost jobs as a result of the pandemic. While government related jobs will be rock solid, many other jobs will not be so safe.

And while the banks may be ok for the moment, imagine how the balance sheets of the Italian banks will look like when they don’t have interest and principle in on their residential mortgages. They won’t be keen on lending on new transactions, either business or residential.


#6

It seems heartless to speculate on property prices when people are dying but the social, economic and financial consequences of what the world is going through are fascinating.

At the level of the property market I’ve been looking to buy a retirement pad in Dublin for some time but I live outside Ireland so people like me are now unable to participate in the market, so there goes one potential buyer. I suspect that the whole property market will basically seize up. Only people who have to sell will do so but will people be willing to turn up at viewings? Moreover, are banks lending at the moment? Before all this kicked off I spoke to one estate agent about a new development in South Dublin that was of interest to me and five of the nine properties that met my criteria already had deposits from Chinese buyers. I wonder if these buyers have now pulled out (if indeed they were real in the first place!).

Also, I have heard that former AirBnB properties are now finding their way onto the rental market which is, in my opinion, a good thing. Will this create enough additional supple to impact rents? If so you that should hit yields (if you can find someone willing to sign a new rental lease).

There are so many competing forces at work I don’t really know what to think. My gut tells me that the economic hit will be severe (but hopefully relatively short-lived) and so property prices everywhere should come under pressure. Furthermore, look how the stock market and pretty much any quoted asset or commodity has suffered since the Covid panic began, it is difficult to see how property could be insulated from this.

I reckon that if the lock down persists for more than a month or two developers will soon be open to discounted offers if only to generate some cash flow. For people who want to sell their PPR I suspect that they will stay put until this period passes. However ,it is not difficult to imagine that individuals who are in the eye of this economic storm may soon be forced to sell whatever they can.


#7

My feeling is this virus will also cull many weak or zombie companies with poor products or service. New hungry startups and stronger companies will survive and flourish with less competition for a while.
My expectation is that prices will drop from here for about a year, maybe a bit more, before rocketing again (as usual here after a dip).