Hold off buying for 18 months?


#21

Very difficult to say and anybody who tells you they know is talking shite. A fall is a given but how much - can easily see 10% being exceeded. I am not giving advice, do not rely on what I say to make a decision.

It would be interesting to get 2pack’s view. 2pack?


#22

Ita worth noting that the rental market is in free fall already.

Residential lilely to be stickier but if theres less people at work, less people migrating into the State, less money all round its hard to see how residential prices will not be impacted down the line.

Ultimately however nobody knows. Its possible that we’re entering a new paradigm as opposed to a correction. Too many unknowns to make solid predictions


#23

Would agree with all of that Poacher

I would add that the residential market over the longer term is a reflection of people wages - with people using their wages to pay rent or pay a mortgage. With many people out of work, prices look like they are going one way.


#24

Any sign of @2pack around here recently? Also interested in what he thinks.


#25

Ya know what, I have given the matter no thought at all. And as the sun is out and me garden has hit 22c…I won’t. :smiley:


#26

Many residential property markets, including ours, have been overvalued for some time, so taking into consideration the sharp contraction in our economy (more severe than the previous Global Recession) and our current hidden unemployment of around 40% I’m expecting our residential property prices to go back to the 2012-14 levels within the next 1-3 years. Rents would drop substantially as well, but slightly faster than the prices.


#27

I think that would be an average of roughly 50% decrease in values across the board.

Its certainly possible but theres still a lot of uncertainty as to how this will play out.


#28

We’re back in the market for a Dublin house. We were the underbidders on a place in February that went 20% over asking. Disappointed at the time, delighted now. We’re inclined to wait now until at least autumn to see if better value presents itself. (Estate agents had, generally, become very uppity again, insisting on all sorts of nonsense just to view a place, not feeling the least bit sorry for them now).


#29

I did think (some) of this matter in the last while but while I expect prices for properties and rents to drop I cannot for the life of me predict how much or by when. That is how uncertain these times are.

If you are one of the many Dubliners involved in Aviation, or in Airbnb activities ultimately linked to aviation, then you should not buy at all. I reckon Irish Aviation is ground zero for this crash and not only the flying bit but also the leasing bit which is pretty substantial in Dublin and of course the AirBnB tarts who do short term rentals to transients.

I am also minded to the theory that the biggest drops in rents in this quarter will be found between Santry and Swords and that this will then cascade outwards from the vicinity of the airport. Areas favoured by ‘rich’ international students doing medicine in the RCOS and the like will get a slap too.

On the other hand there is a bit of a biotech cluster around SCD/NCW which may not be affected at all, perhaps the opposite even. Sorry to @neverbeenaworsetimet for my curates egg of an opinion but I think the fallout from the virus will be localised as much as national. :smiley:


#30

Ugly house, price low for the area?

If that size house was on the other side of Clanbrassil street it would be twice that price?


#31

KBC sees Irish house prices falling 12% amid Covid-19

House prices are expected to rally by 8 per cent next year, according to KBC Group slides. However, a pessimistic scenario could see home valuations plunging by 20 per cent this year and a further 5 per cent in 2021, it said.


#32

It’s a decent house alright and at the right price the exterior wouldn’t bother me at all. Checked and last one to sell there went for 400K in 2018 so I think they’re trying to take Covid into account somewhat. But, if data coming in is even close to accurate then it’s still way over priced.


#33

As it is behind paywall I can’t read the article but is this from Comical Austin :slight_smile:


#34

Joe Brennan.

Am I allowed post the article content here for you to read?


#35

Posting relevant parts with a link to full article is common practice across the net, but generally not 100% (there is the odd exception) and as an alternative people can always try pasting an article into outline.com to get a cleaner usually non-ad view read, case in point https://outline.com/y3MBus

Also, it is good practice these days to archive webpages, using the various online archiving sites by simply pasting again the link to an the archive site and it does the rest, in this case; http://archive.is/SOvX8

For those that use chrome there is I think an extension to make it even easier to archive information and sources for accurate retrieval for future reference to the information of the day.


#36

Pertinent section of article:

"KBC Group sees house prices in the Republic falling by 12 per cent this year, as the economy deals with the coronavirus crisis, the Belgian banking giant signalled on Thursday as it reported that its Irish managed to remain profitable in the first quarter. The figure is described as a “base case” in a presentation prepared by KBC Group for analysts as it seeks to map out potential bad loan losses across its markets. It would mark the first decline in Irish residential values since 2012.

House prices are expected to rally by 8 per cent next year, according to KBC Group slides. However, a pessimistic scenario could see home valuations plunging by 20 per cent this year and a further 5 per cent in 2021, it said."


#37

Given economic activity contracted by 20% in the space of last month alone you’d have to suspect theyre under egging it.

Unless theres another black swan event in the opposite direction to Covid 19, youd have to suspect that 20% drops are a given by next Spring.

Rents are already there in some cases.

How much beyond that it goes is anyones guess


#38

2020 is not done by a long shot, more to come and a lot of do do.


#39

I wonder could this see the return of mortgages being benchmarked to single salaries ?

Anything is possible at this stage


#40

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, etc., but yes a lot of people will not find that exterior attractive. That wouldn’t stop people from buying it.

It’s competitively priced based on the general area, but as another poster referenced, the last house that sold was 16 Clanbrassil Close for €400,000 in 2018. That had a 2-storey rear extension and west-facing garden that was not severely overlooked (unlike this garden/yard, which is very overlooked and east-facing). This is in much better condition from a decorative perspective, with a modern kitchen and bathroom.

Overall, there is a reason why they are generally cheaper (and much cheaper) than the surrounding streets and areas. It’s a council estate where the majority of houses (about 60%) are still council-owned and some people consider that off-putting. The houses both left and right of this house are privately-owned, which is generally considered to be positive.

Inner-city former council houses have multiple positive attributes, not least their locations, and generally offer “bang for your buck” in terms of decent square footage for the money. A safer bet than the Clanbrassil Close property would probably be a former council house on the main road on Clanbrassil Street, where you don’t have to worry about the potential pitfalls that could arise within a council estate.

An example is 2 New Row South beside the Maldron Hotel Kevin Street:

That’s a similar sized ex-council house on the main road, but the asking price and it requires redecoration/modernisation. It came up for sale mid-March but hasn’t been sale agreed, albeit rather unsurprisingly given Covid. Given lockdown had barely set in at that stage, nor the reality of the new normal, the asking price doesn’t reflect a Covid discount.

A property in the cul-de-sac behind it was on the market for a considerable amount of time and was sale agreed in February with an asking price of €370,000 - the actual sale price has yet to hit the property price register:

Even from an investor perspective, rents have slumped massively and the long-term impact is unknown. In the immediate vicinity of Clanbrassil Close, there are far superior properties on the market such as a 3-bed, 3-bath modern mews as Wesley Place seeking €2,416pm and generally landlords are facing considerable void periods and, in many cases, negotiating on the actual rents or terms of the leases now that it’s a renters market:

That house is probably rent-capped given the odd asking price, but even if it wasn’t that is probably as much as full market rent at the moment. I have seen 3-bed houses in Ballsbridge are renting for €2,500pm. By that measure, a 3 bed (2 double, 1 single), 1 full bath house in Clanbrassil Close would rent for somewhere in the region of €2,100 per month. That represents a 6.33% net initial yield based on a €385,000 purchase price, allowing for standard purchaser costs of 3.46%, and ignoring void periods. I would not consider that an overly attractive proposition given the uncertainty in the market at the moment.

So, yes, the Clanbrassil Court property would have been competitively priced pre-Covid given it’s in good decorative order, but I would venture that €385,000 isn’t ‘cheap’ for it if the expected price decreases of 10%+ (or up to 20% based on KBC’s ‘pessimistic’ scenario) feed through the market in the short term.

It’s difficult to see how Covid won’t have a material (negative) impact on the market, aside from the lucky cohort who are unaffected, sitting at home saving money and chomping at the bit to buy once restrictions are removed. I expect that cohort are grossly outweighed by those who have been affected. That includes those with good jobs who can no longer access mortgage exemptions as banks refuse to offer them now, or even haven’t even taken a hit in salary but aren’t considered eligible for a mortgage because their employer is availing of Government Covid supports.