Hold off buying for 18 months?


#41

Most of the people with stable employment and access to mortgages are careful enough to avoid buying anything right now, unless they get at least 20-40% discount on the asking price. Many would just prefer to wait and see, as residential housing prices might go down even further than that.


#42

Wow!
Thanks for all your input, very informative.
My favorite place to buy a house would be a nice 2 bedroom redbrick in Portobello, but that area seems to be hipster central and prices are outrageous.
I viewed this house and loved it, but thought it was way over priced at 575k, but it actually sold for 675K, maybe two Googlers or two Facebook employees bidding against each other.


#43

Interesting you mention Google and Facebook.

Given the increasing likelihood of those types of jobs becoming ‘work from home’ gigs post-pandemic, will places like Portobello hold their value?

As late as the mid 90s that whole area was run down. In fact the city centre generally only became somewhere that non locals would consider living during the Tiger years. Will the existing pubs, coffee shops and restaurants survive if social distancing becomes the norm? Beyond that whats the attraction?

Its certainly something to consider as people maybe become more conscious of the benefits of gardens and increased personal space generally in the ‘new normal’.


#44

Yes, very good points to consider.
Its now a different world, will the techies work from home maybe in remote rural areas.


#45

Yeah who knows. If someone only has to be in Dublin once or twice a month why not get themselves a nice seafront place in Wexford or Waterford for the same price or less?


#46

Yes, Portobello has a lot going for it but prices are toppy. That Martin Street house was instantly appealing and move-in ready, but even at the height of the last property boom, the maximum asking price on the street (3 doors down) was €635k and the property lingered on the market for most of 2006, which equated to an asking price of about €9,200/sqm. It didn’t fly off the shelf.

42 is one of the bigger properties on the street because it includes an approx. 10sqm portion upstairs that held under a flying freehold within the structure of the neighbouring building and its sale worked out at €7,585/sqm. That’s basically 18% cheaper than the Celtic Tiger high on a per square metre basis, but in reality it’s probably cheaper again because it’s better upgraded (BER B2) but hard to compare like-for-like as we didn’t worry about those kind of things back then.

All in all, though, there is not a huge gap between that 2019 sale and 2006 prices on Martin Street in spite of the significant tightening on credit. Surmise what you will from that, right now it’s anyone’s guess what level of price correction is coming down the tracks and it won’t be truly apparent for some time to come. Anyone who needs to sell immediately have to take a hit.


#47

Thanks for the historical values, I have only been watching Portobello for a few years, so its very interesting to hear the Celtic Tiger values compared to recent sales.
Here is another one that I viewed, I think the buyers were flippers, if yes, they must be really worried, they paid €421K and it needs 100% modernisation,


#48

€421k needing everything done is akin to 2004/2005 levels, so not quite top of the boom but not a million miles off either. The house next door, No. 2, was up for €380k in 2003 in good condition. It’s the same size house, but the unusual roof pitch makes is more visually attractive (subjective), along with being end-of-terrace. The year prior, a mid-terrace sold for €360k.

Speaking generally, and not in relation to any particular buyer, you will find that a lot of buyers around there are 35+ y.o. and working in the city centre with high incomes. Many of them are single. If prices drop 10-20% in the short term, as much as people hate over-paying for things, it won’t necessarily change peoples’ lives if they’re happy to stay put and not crystallise a loss. People have different reasons for buying, and if they are planning to stay in a place long-term then market swings are less relevant… we very rarely have a stable market, it’s more often than not either rising swiftly or falling sharply.


#49

Its a buyers market and not many will be buying in the short term. Uncertainty only means prices will be in one direction.


#50

Agreed that the logical thing to do would probably be to hold off buying in the short term, but people are still buying for various reasons. Even looking at Dublin in the seven day period from 9th May to today, 16th May, my records suggest there were 100 properties sale agreed:

No. Address Beds Baths Type Size Asking Price
1 The Beach, Loughshinny, K34 R580 2 1 Detached 36 €199,000
2 33 Raheen Road, Tallaght, Dublin 24 3 0 Semi-detached 110.7 €250,000
3 35 Meadow Grove, Churchtown, Dublin 14 2 2 Semi-detached 135 €449,000
4 100 Milltown Hall, Mount St Annes, Milltown, Dublin 6 1 1 Apartment 60 €380,000
5 29 Leinster Street East, North Strand, Dublin 3 3 2 End-of-terrace 90 €355,000
6 Apartment 3, The Willows, Monkstown 1 1 Apartment 45 €295,000
7 27 Willbrook House, Northbrook Ave, Ranelagh 1 1 Apartment 37 €285,000
8 26 Deerpark Place, Kiltipper, Dublin 24 2 1 Apartment 65 €175,000
9 133 Kiltipper Gate, Tallaght, Dublin 24 2 2 Apartment 69.7 €215,000
10 6 Owenstown Park, Foster Avenue, Mount Merrion 4 2 Detached 163.7 €845,000
11 26 Greygates, Mount Merrion 4 3 Semi-detached 145 €950,000
12 39 Shackleton House, Archerswood, Clonee, Dublin 15 2 ? Apartment ? €220,000
13 68 The Mill, Cross Guns Quay, Phibsborough, Dublin 7 1 1 Apartment 40 €215,000
14 21 The Paddocks Way, Adamstown, Co. Dublin 2 1 Duplex 84 €239,950
15 21 Russell’s Terrace, Kettles Lane, Kinsealy 2 1 Apartment ? €225,000
16 Apartment 76, Clifden Court, Dublin 7 3 2 Apartment 87 €400,000
17 11 McAuley Road, Artane, Dublin 5 3 2 End-of-terrace ? €325,000
18 420 Collins Avenue, Whitehall, Dublin 9 4 1 Terraced 118 €350,000
19 14 Iveleary Road, Whitehall, Dublin 9 3 1 Semi-detached 113.5 €495,000
20 57 Metropolitan Apartments, Inchicore Road, Dublin 8 2 2 Penthouse 90.1 €425,000
21 17 Saint Joseph’s Avenue, Drumcondra 1 1 Terraced 60 €200,000
22 240 Harold’s Cross Road, Dublin 6W 12 12 6 Apartments 354 €POA
23 Apartment 12, Broadfield Hall, Tallaght, Dublin 24 2 2 Apartment 70 €235,000
24 40 Aikenhead Terrace, Stella Gardens, Ringsend 2 1 End-of-terrace 60 €445,000
25 4 Coppinger Glade, Blackrock 4 2 Semi-detached 133 €595,000
26 145 Oliver Plunkett Avenue, Stella Gardens, Ringsend 2 1 Terraced 61 €385,000
27 Beechwood, 66 Foster’s Avenue, Mount Merrion 4 1 Semi-detached 130 €825,000
28 47 Mount Drummond Ave, Harold’s Cross, Dublin 6W 2 1 Semi-detached 74 €380,000
29 48 Knocknarea Avenue, Drimnagh, Dublin 12 2 1 Semi-detached 70 €250,000
30 40 Stannaway Road, Kimmage, Dublin 12 3 1 Semi-detached 80 €265,000
31 Church Street, Finglas, Dublin 11, D11 E8W2 N/A N/A 0.3 Acre Site N/A €400,000
32 Cheers, Grove Road, Glasnevin, Dublin 11, D11 N8PC 2 2 Mixed-use 120 €350,000
33 25 Hampton Wood Avenue, Finglas, Dublin 11 1 1 Apartment 42.9 €160,000
34 1 Valley Park Road, Finglas, Dublin 11 N/A N/A Site N/A €40,000
35 6 St Judes Court, Firhouse, Dublin 24 4 3 End-of-terrace ? €335,000
36 6 Grotto Place, Booterstown, Dublin 2 2 Terraced 84 €650,000
37 97 Ashcroft, Raheny, Dublin 5 3 2 Terraced 92 €399,000
38 77 Chancery Street, Smithfield, Dublin 7 2 1 Terraced 71.8 €355,000
39 10 Larkfield Square, Lucan, Dublin 2 2 Apartment 68 €239,000
40 Apartment 109, Block 5C, The Casino, Malahide, Dublin 2 2 Apartment 65 €415,000
41 4 Coill Dubh Court, Broomfield, Malahide 4 2 End-of-terrace 150 €650,000
42 36 Saint Andrews Park, Swords, Dublin 5 2 Detached 142 €550,000
43 24 The Lodge, Seabrook Manor, Portmarnock 2 2 Apartment 83.6 €340,000
44 108 Castleheath, Swords Road, Malahide, Dublin 4 2 Duplex 115 €440,000
45 11 Johnsbridge Park, Lucan, Dublin 4 3 Semi-detached ? €365,000
46 7 Deerhaven Close, Clonee, Dublin 15 4 3 Semi-detached 122 €369,000
47 38 Millwood Park, Raheny, Dublin 5 3 2 Detached 78.4 €325,000
48 33 Greenville Place, Dublin 8 1 1 Apartment ? €240,000
49 22 Ticknock Grove, Ticknock Hill, Sandyford, Dublin 18 4 2 Terraced 115.3 €495,000
50 11 Grianan Fidh, Aiken’s Village, Sandyford, Dublin 18 3 2 Apartment 85 €325,000
51 120 Malahide Road, Clontarf, Dublin 3, D03 R640 N/A N/A 0.1 Acre Site N/A €125,000
52 48 Castlegate Dene, Adamstown, Dublin 1 1 Apartment 45 €169,950
53 Apartment 59, Block C3, Geraldstown Woods, Santry 3 2 Apartment ? €219,999
54 3 Swift House, Ardilaun Court, Christchurch, Dublin 8 1 1 Apartment 35 €220,000
55 17 Obelisk Grove, St Augustine Park, Blackrock 4 2 Semi-detached 117 €635,000
56 8 Rathlawns, Rathcoole, Co. Dublin 3 3 Semi-detached 111.5 €270,000
57 157 Pace Crescent, Littlepace, Clonee, Dublin 15 4 3 Semi-detached 147 €375,000
58 108 Quinn’s Road, Shankill, Dublin 18 3 1 Semi-detached 110 €395,000
59 13 Meridian Court, Royal Canal Park, Ashtown, Dublin 4 2 Apartment 107.3 €320,000
60 Apartment 82, Block A, Smithfield, Dublin 7 2 1 Apartment 70 €342,000
61 78 The Clayton, The Gasworks, Barrow Street, Dublin 4 2 2 Apartment 71 €525,000
62 21 Beach Road, Sandymount, Dublin 4 N/A N/A 0.1 Acre Site N/A €725,000
63 20 Tramway Court, Tallaght, Dublin 24 2 2 Apartment 61 €155,000
64 61 Beaumont Court, Beaumont, Dublin 9 2 1 Apartment 61 €225,000
65 67 Meadowbank, Bushy Park Road, Rathgar, Dublin 6 2 2 End-of-terrace 72 €500,000
66 10 Rosebank Hall, Clondalkin, Dublin 22 2 2 Apartment 62.7 €169,000
67 68 The Willow, Trimbleston, Goatstown, Dublin 14 2 2 Apartment 76.4 €425,000
68 82 St Alban’s Park, Sandymount, Dublin 4 3 2 Semi-detached 145 €1,050,000
69 37 Virginia Hall, Belgard Square, Tallaght, Dublin 24 1 1 Apartment ? €175,000
70 51 Ellenfield Road, Whitehall, Dublin 9 2 2 End-of-terrace 72 €325,000
71 292 Landen Road, Ballyfermot, Dublin 10 3 2 End-of-terrace ? €229,950
72 220 Kilworth Road, Drimnagh, Dublin 12 3 2 Terraced ? €249,950
73 68 Woodview, Lucan, Dublin 3 1 Semi-detached 84 €285,000
74 14 Millpark, Clondalkin, Dublin 22 2 1 Duplex 52 €189,950
75 25 Hansted Drive, Lucan, Dublin 3 2 Duplex 101 €269,000
76 26 Frankfort Park, Dundrum, Dublin 14 4 3 Semi-detached 145 €750,000
77 106 The Lighthouse, Church Road, East Wall, Dublin 3 1 1 Apartment 37 €230,000
78 23 Bloomfield Park, Donnybrook, Dublin 4 3 3 Penthouse 232 €1,500,000
79 38 St Cathryn’s Court, Newgrove Ave, Sandymount, D4 3 2 Penthouse 106 €795,000
80 21 Ely Close, Ely Manor, Firehouse, Dublin 24 3 3 Semi-detached 117 €325,000
81 7 Old Market Green, Balbriggan, Dublin, K32 R993 4 1 Terraced ? €245,000
82 6 Woodstown Heights, Knocklyon, Dublin 16 3 3 Semi-detached 102 €400,000
83 Apartment 9, Bellview, Tallaght, Dublin 24 2 1 Apartment 56 €170,000
84 Apartment 20, Tailors Court, Christchurch, Dublin 8 1 1 Apartment 40 €220,000
85 Apartment 16, Baroma, Kimmage, Dublin 6W 1 1 Apartment 35.2 €195,000
86 13 Clairville Lodge, Streamstown Lane, Malahide 4 4 Detached 195 €925,000
87 18 Waterloo Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4 8 8 Pre-63 386 €1,400,000
88 43 Fancourt Heights, Ballbriggan, Dublin 3 1 Terraced 94 €225,000
89 20 Kelly’s Bay Strand, Skerries, Dublin 3 2 Semi-detached 108 €360,000
90 14 Lapwing, Barnageeragh Cove, Skerries, Dublin 4 3 Detached 168 €550,000
91 119 Shanganagh Cliffs, Shankhill, Dublin 3 1 Terraced ? €335,000
92 129 Castleland Court, Balbriggan, Dublin 1 1 Apartment 50 €125,000
93 73 Richmond Road, Drumcondra, Dublin 9 3 2 Terraced 95.6 €425,000
94 90 Trees Road, Mount Merrion, Dublin 5 1 Semi-detached 166 €925,000
95 6 The Court, Dalcassian Downs, Glasnevin, Dublin 11 0 1 Studio 33 €150,000
96 12 Larchwood, Woodlawn Avenue, Santry, Dublin 9 1 1 Apartment ? €190,000
97 11 Beechfield Avenue, Walkinstown, Dublin 12 4 1 Semi-detached 131 €445,000
98 11 Templeroan Drive, Knocklyon, Dublin 16 3 3 Semi-detached 120 €480,000
99 12 Mount Prospect Drive, Clontarf, Dublin 3 3 1 Terraced 97.2 €535,000
100 14 Harlech Crescent, Ardilea, Clonskeagh, Dublin 14 3 2 Detached 132 €695,000

In terms of how to read this data, this doesn’t mean buyers were out in force last week viewing and buying properties. They could even have been formally sale agreed in previous weeks, but the agents were satisfied that the sales have progressed sufficiently to now warrant marking them as sale agreed to avoid unnecessary enquiries about the properties as they have relative confidence the sales will proceed. That is not to say all of the sales will conclude successfully in the end.

Anecdotally, talking to some agents, there were indications that a good deal of people were proceeding with deals agreed pre-Covid (maybe 50%). Also anecdotally, there are even people going sale agreed without having physically viewed properties in some cases.


#51

Off topic but from that list 21 Beach Road really demonstrates the value of selling a plot with planning permission. Originally it was on for €500K/no planning. Then planning for two dwellings (4 bed + 2 bed) and it went back to market for €725/with planning.


#52

it looks like you study this data closely on an ongoing basis, if so what you normally expect to see in a 7 day period. i.e I presume sale agreeds are down, but by how much?


#53

Some of the Sale Agreed” are fake (the agents just want to show some activity), while many others get cancelled at later stage. Significant number of “Sale Agreed” already goes with 10-20% discount on the asking price.

It’s very bad that our property market has been almost fully dominated by the agents, they want to pretend that nothing has happened in the world (and in Ireland) and would try to keep the asking prices at the current levels at least for another few months, but at the end they would be forced to drop the prices anyway.


#54

Are you an Estate agent, your user name says you are a “Buyers Agent”,

Do you have a website?


#55

Yes the name buyers’ agent is accurate, I will PM you. :slightly_smiling_face:


#56

Do you only operate in Dublin or further afield? If further please PM me too!


#57

We have gone sale agreed during lockdown on a property we viewed a number of months ago.

The house was sale agreed close to asking, but the purchaser has disappeared since.

We’ve managed to get over 10% off the asking. Delighted, as it needs a good bit of cosmetic work.

Also have a good friend has negotiated a similar % amount off their sale agreed price in D6. So the drops are happening already.


#58

Can you PM me.

Struggling with estate agents.
I find them to be the most dishonest people on the planet.


#59

What’s your experience with Estate agents,
I hate the bidding process, you never know if there is an actual person bidding against you.
It could be a friend of the seller bidding up the price, agents never ask you for proof of funds or mortgage approval when you bid, so anybody can bid up the price.
The sales process is not transparent at all.
Another thing is the list price, last year I called an estate agent and asked if there was any bids yet, he said no, so I bid the asking price and he said they would not accept the asking price and my bid had to 15k more or he would not accept it, how messed up is that, the estate agent said the list price was only a guide!


#60

In 2009 I bought an apt of savills
I quote.
“You can’t afford this, so don’t waste my time”

I bought it two weeks later.

I have a severe hatred for estate agents.