House affordability at record 25-yr best


#1

businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=2540537


#2

She’s fucking broken my bullshit-o-meter! :imp:


#3

Basically: Property prices will continue to fall, therefore now is a good time to buy. Do these ape’s read what they write.

Left out the fact that they will be raising rates in the near future


#4

so perhaps rather than writing one-liners can someone disprove what was written in the OP? The reason why I ask is that we hear and read of small signs of recovery and all we get is bashing so some substance to the bashing would be useful. Saying that prices will continue to fall is like saying it may rain here, or over there but there will be some rain. Over the past few months there have been good signs, exports growing, job losses slowing down so perhaps its time to acknowledge that our country may be getting a little better or perhaps some people who write these articles - as in the OP - are in cloud cuckoo land… confused :neutral_face:


#5

Holy crapola!

Their affordability figures are bunk because they are based on wage levels that do not exist anymore and do not take account of any of the effects of the budget last year or the likely fiscal restraint into the future. They are also predicated off unrealistic mortgage rates and terms, this stuff has been bunk since the start of the Tiger so there’s no point expecting performance to improve right now.

I’d love for them to publish their examples but they only talk in ridiculous percentages viz. the final paragraph there, first time buyer segment has grown… IN AN OVERALL DECLINING MARKET THAT IS A TINY PERCENTAGE OF THE BUSINESS IN 2007!!!

This is utter shit but read into it what you will… Without transparency in sales prices and transaction volumes, there can be very little clarity shed but that suits their agenda perfectly, which is to call a bottom and improved activity every fucking year…


#6

God what a rotten little woman that Dara Deering is. House prices are nowher near as affordable as 25 years ago, people were paying 60% tax back then but could often afford to buy a semi in Galway while in their 20s. Impossible now.


#7

Shes right.
FTBs should ***consider ***buying.
But then after careful consideration decide not to buy due to the reasons she outlined above i.e. prices are still falling !


#8

The biggest exaggeration in there is the mention of low-interest rates. The level of interest rates we are currently at, and were at for the past decade were artificially low, and low in the long-term average sense also. When these numbers go up, so does your repayment.

Also, as other posters have said, house prices will most likely keep falling, and IMHO we will see continued salary reductions too. All of these push affordability in the wrong direction (arguably house price falls don’t affect affordability if you’ve already bought, but they do affect your ability to sell and move).


#9

With interest rates about to be jacked up by the banks there isn’t too much time left to spout this affordability nonsense… so we can expect plenty more of this in the short term.


#10

mrgaa1 Read the OP again

In addition to falling prices there are a number of other environmental factors which are helping to ensure that affordability levels continue to improve.""

This is saying that affordability will continue to improve. i.e. prices will continue to drop.

It however neglects to mention that interest rates will rise regardless of what the ECB does, therefore now is certainly not a good time for first time buyers. it is a very dangerous time


#11

So job losses slowing is a sign of improvement. Are you sure about that? Are you an EA by any chance, quite clearly you have some of the necessary attributes to be one.


#12

See the spin folks ?

25 years ago, the chances are there would only have been one single income.
13.4% of a dual income, is a hell of a lot more than 17% of a single income.


#13

FTB’S Not buying a home but investing in the property market.
I have the same gut feeling as most on the pin as to where we are
going + it now appears to be a mathematical certainty, but I have a fear
that this type of spin and the huge amount of it to come from vested interests
when the traditional spring/summer buying season starts will give even longer
false bottoms than we anticipate year after year and drag this train wreck out for a decade.


#14

And you can bet your ass that the mortgage term, the principal involved and the interest rate all differ incredibly also… And not due to any normalisation or valid data adjustment, just to make the shit fit…


#15

Good spot. It is also not the “average first time buyer”, it is the “average first time buyer working couple”.

Of course, this is not a measure of affordability but rather a measure how restricted credit is. The only people getting loans are on big incomes and have a lump of cash to put towards the purchase price.


#16

That’s exactly what jumped out to me straight away.25 years ago one income could buy,now it takes two.
Mrgaa,if you can’t see through the bullshit and analyse things for yourself then I suggest you try to sharpen your critical faculties.Believing these shills and hoping for the best is burying your head in the sand.Most people should know that by now after all the bullshit dished out over the years. Most people are tired of spelling it out.


#17

It would also be illuminating to know (i) what the average income of the “average first time buyer working couple” is and (ii) what is the average age of the “average first time buyer working couple”.


#18

Do they really think we’re stupid? You don’t even need official stats. 25 years ago isn’t a long time ago, all you have to do is ask older people. My in-laws (on very average salaries) bought exactly 25 years ago; a huge old somewhat rackety 5-bedroom redbrick house in Dublin 8 for 1.5 times their combined salary. Sure, it was the 80s - interest rates were crippling and they each had some spells of unemployment but they were able to pay off this (20 year) mortgage and bring up four kids. Can you imagine that being anywhere near possible now?


#19

There was a small increase in the numbers of FTBs in Q3 2009 over the small number of FTBs in Q2 (approx. 55% down on 2007). The reason that FTBs are taking up a large percentage of the mortgage market is because the overall mortgage market has collapsed in size and investors have almost entirely dissappeared. The mortage drawdown details for the last few years are here if you want to look at them.

(PDF) ibf.ie/pdfs/IBFPwC_%20MMP32009.pdf


#20

/quote]

I haven’t checked the under 100k thread in a while, but from a few cursory searches on daft all you’d get for 137k in the greater dublin area is a burnt out former council house in Tallaght, a one bed apartment in mulhuddard, or to be fair, a 3 bed in Finglas

First time buyer couple, if such a concept should even exist, would presumably have a nipper or two and wouldn’t want to worry about the house being condemned. So there’s value in Finglas, but the rest of the city is a long way off. 137k at 3% over 25 years is €649.67. To represent 13.4% of net income they would be earning 29,089 each, or maybe 35k-ish gross. Where to begin?