House completions "ease" by one third to hit seven-year low

The frightening thing here is that the figure was still up at 51,000.

Scotland which has a population larger than Ireland has averaged 15,000 a year since the second world war.

15,000 a year is what we need maybe 20,000 with strong immigration
Given the volume of empties every house built is further depressing the market.

Dublin will probably need some high quality larger family three and four bed units in about 10 years, but we have built around 15 years worth of housing in the last 4-5 years…

For those of you in construction…

I’m sorry but the game is over…

I agree ewd3. Despite the disaster, this is only the lowest point in seven years! Those who have lost their jobs in construction have well and truly lost them. So another 60% fall in output to go…

I am stunned that it exceeded 50k units having predicted about 45k units and then just under 40k at various stages in late 2007 and early 2008 .

It just goes to show that all that guff about developers working quickly to turn off the supply tap really was nonsense. What the residential sector really needs is a moratorium on ALL new residential construction throughout Ireland (maybe allow only high rise within a 5km radius of O’Connell bridge in Dublin).

Employment-wise, things look brutal. At least last year, there was some degree of commercial construction to take up the slack of the residential collapse. Now residential is still in collapse and commercial is rapidly following it. With infrastructural spending set to take a hit, there is going to be no safe haven in this country for construction.

Dublin could high quality housing at all levels in the market. Decently sized (actually large enough to live in), well insulated both for heat and sound, some storage space, proper ventilation. Someone putting that kind of stuff on the market in 2 years time would clean up and leave every other developer in the dust.

One million empty homes causes serious concern in the UK with a population of 61 million. So a very conservative 250,000 empties in Ireland is about 15 times more serious. It would be astonishing if we average more than 10,000 new homes a year over the next decade.

telegraph.co.uk/property/4580382/Recession-means-one-million-empty-homes-for-first-time.html

Does anyone know what these DOE completion figures are based on? I cannot believe 50K and if so it just further increases the toxic debts in the country.

ESB Networks connection stats are the metric used to determine a completion .

A lot of the 2008 stats are coming from very early 2008 when construction was still taking place at a more rapid pace.

Very surprising level of output given what we had anticipated last year viewtopic.php?f=4&t=7210

DoE statistics
environ.ie/en/Publications/S … tatistics/

No surprise to me,builders wouldn’t be building that amount of houses if they couldn’t sell them would they?

Davy did a report on how many houses need to be built in Ireland and came up with a figure of around 50,000 a year,given the current climate and the oversupply I think building will drop to around 15-20,000 pa until the market picks up.

Don’t forget that increasing future immigration is a trick card the government hasn’t played yet,there is an unlimited supply of immigrants and a fixed number of empties

davydirect.ie/other/pubarticles/wmc20050926.pdf

“Green Bear” posted this in another thread but it has an immigration slant that might be of interest Prof:
cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1032383825&play=1

Thanks What Goes Up,Becky Quick certainly mentioned the word that dare not speak its name in many quarters,but it was not picked up by the others.

England has benefited hugely from the enrichement of mass immigration,the banks via the governments open door policies were guaranteed an unlimited supply of new mortgages.

Every country in europe has benefited in the same way,Irelands immigrant population went from virtually zero to 15% in as many years,I can see a solution to those empties and repossesed houses with my extremely powerfull binoculars,the ordinary Joe or Paddy will end up paying not only for the house via social housing or housing benefit but also welfare and social security payments to the immigrants brought to occupy the house,not to mention all the social problems on top.

And after all that has happened,the banks are still in control.

Professori, you really remind me of the knight in the Monthy Python film who if I recall has no arms or legs and proclaims “tis just a scratch”. We haven’t enough money to pay the current welfare bill, illness benefit has been cut to a 2 year maximum. Immigration as a way to solve the canny problem will not happen. Wake up.

Isn’t allowing in a large number of immigrants a bit arseways way of solving the problem…

It’s a bit like running out of cat food and inviting mice into your house to feed the cat!

You are assuming(incorrectly in my opinion,that tax rates will remain at current levels),the banksters will advise govt ministers that there is no alternative to the problem of empties and repossesion other than to import new tenants,the welfare and rent coming from your taxes,it really is that simple.Affordability doesn’t come into it.

You certainly got that right.
But even when we did have enough (false) money in the economy we continued to pay welfare to 150,000 or thereabouts unemployed persons right through the boom years while importing some 400,000 immigrants.
These issues are related. The government knows all about this but and it’s actions during the past decade has supported the importation of immigrants verus getting the unemployed do the work or cutting them off the benefits.

Only partially true but presented as a fait acommpli.
Actually provided that you’re on illness benefit before 2009 then you can continue to benefit from the illness benefit.
It’s only the new joiners that are going to be affected from January 2009.

citizensinformation.ie/categ … ty_benefit

Really? Basis? I wouldn’t be so surprised if this and next year we had announcements of citizenship for massive numbers of “Assylum Seekers”, further relaxation of our immigration policies and SW policies in regard to non-natives, and further assistance to aid and abbett this through all manner of international “incentives”.
Essentially the power stroke of the FF governments of the present and the past appears to me to have two crowds of wasters helping to row the FF boat, i.e. the scum at the bottom (those too lazy to work who draw dole), and, the scum at the top (those too lazy to do work and get paid salary to do nothing, e.g. IFSC regulators, Central Bank employees, various other multiple quangos, etc.), and then assisted by a gullible middle ground who vote for them blindly, out of greed or cause they can only vote for FF because it’s in the blood etc.
Effectively, 1/3 of the population does the work in this country and feeds the other 2/3 who don’t do very much at all.

Lot’s of us are wide awake here Jimmy after being messed around with during the last 15 years by these damned FF governments, their political appointees and the shister and shiller classes of Irish society. Fuck the lot of them.

How many of those were long term unemployed? You are aware that people lose their jobs even in boom times right?

Did Bertie sail the seven seas rounding up people and shackle them like the slave ships of old or something?

Your idea does not stack up against the actual experience of 1950s or 80’s Ireland.

Migrants will follow the money, simple as that. Unless substantial deposits of oil and gas are discovered off the coast (a remote possibility) there is nothing to attract people here or incentive for existing people to stay. The economic history in Ireland since the 1840’s has seen waves of emigration and we are in that cycle again for the next few years at least.
Few people emigrate to a country for welfare and rent payments, otherwise we’d all be going to Sweden.

*could be anywhere that offers same.

Also a paradigm shift is taking place, the tide is shifting against the “banksters”. I don’t know yet what the outcome will be, but life as we know it will change. In September 2008, the entire western banking system collapsed, and the locus of the banksters power went with it.