Here are paddypowers new odds for anyone interested.
The smart money went down on this along time ago.
It goes to show the change of public opinion, paddypower have basically ruled out a soft landing at this stage.
Would people trust paddypower more so than the banks and the VI’s , I know I would.
We could pop desperated dan an email telling him he can now get his softlading at 9-1
House Price Changes in 2007
**Singles Only. What will be the % increase/decrease of Irish National House Prices for the 12 months from 1st Jan to the end of December 2007. Settled in accordance with official house price index figures obtained from Permanent TSB.
Increase or no change (0% or more) 9 - 1
Decrease 0.01% - 1.50% 7 - 1
Decrease 1.51% -3.00% 9 - 2
Decrease 3.01% - 4.50% 5 - 2
Decrease 4.51% - 6.00% 5 - 4
Decrease 6.01% - 7.50% 7 - 2
Decrease Over 7.50% 8 - 1
I just put a few quid on -7.5 percent @ 1 , we are down 2 percent so for from the first 5 months , with the last 2 months being -0.8 % , 7 more months og -0.8 percent will be -5.6 % on top of the -2% will be -7.6%
I don’t think -7.5% is the most likely scenario, but I do think the odds are overly generous. Just put a (small) bit on myself, it’ll pay for the Turkey at xmas
Given that it’s based on the TSB/ESRI figures that will come out at the end of January, Valentine’s day may be your earliest opportunity to spend it.
I’m still sitting pretty on the 1 on anything less than a 10% INCREASE in 2007 that was offered this time last year. THAT’S how much the sentiment in the property market has changed in a year.
Interesting statement. That would be like saying in 1998, “the time to buy has passed”. I agree with what you said, but that’s because I have a very {optom,unreal}istic viewpoint of how much nominal prices will drop. I’m sure there are others out there who believe in a bigger drop, and would think that there’s still plenty of value to be had. I’m assuming nominal dops in the percentages given in the introductions thread, and that if they drop their current house value estimation by 10% then they would sell.
Iguana owns a house and expects a 20% drop in prices. The market has fallen 2% + (10% decrease) in order to sell still leaves an 8% gain in the year. Would it cover rent and other costs? ho hum.
El Stuntman bought in 2004 so shouln’t have negeq. He expects a drop of 40% in 3 years, so why wouldn’t he sell now to get 28%?
Arthur Daley would expect to get 38% over what timeframe I don’t know?
Schnackbox 18%
I think that for people who are quite bearish about the slowdown/crash it’s still early in the dowturn. If you feel it’s too late, then is that because you don’t expect it to fall much further or very slowly over a long time where it wouldn’t make financial sense?
As the EAs used to say, there’s still value to be had in the market!
I also believe that some of the reasoning behind your statement is that you absolutely nailed the top of the boom by selling in March 2006. So, what are this week’s winning lotto numbers going to be? what’s going to be #1 for Christmas?
A maxim in equity investing has long been “don’t try and time the markets”. An investor can certainly try and predict long term outperformance or underperformance, but trying to guess short to medium term falls and rises is beyond the ability of 99.99% of people.
It highlights to me the lack of financial experience amongst many property bulls that they throw this “why don’t you sell and rent” argument at those bearish on property. It’s repeating arguments that were discussed and dismissed by equity investors in the 80s and 90s.
I personally think sell to renters are taking a huge gamble, one I wouldn’t take.
I see what you mean about the reasoning: *if the time to sell has past then the end of the fall is near *etc but I suppose what I mean is the time to get an easy sale has past, it gets messy from now on for most. I got away by the skin of my teeth. I dropped the price. I think that had I acted quicker I would have gotten a little more. *It was more luck than anything else. *
True but a national property market is a little easier to predict for certain people. If you had access to all the sales volume figures right up to the minute. If you had access to who the buyers are (remember the figures on who (as a %)was buy property by wage groups) and could interpret the effects of interest rate rises on their affordability in their respective groupings. If you had all the information you could predict what way the market is going. Things like easier access to credit (100% mortgages and longer term mortgages) only postpone things.
Those who’ve sold to rent is what you refer to here?
Personally I think it a brave move and obviously only for those who can afford the risk but for those who have done it I think there is a ahuge payoff in the longterm. I’d do it if I was in the psition personally.
If you’re sitting on a lump of 100K, 200, 300K+ cash and you want to start a business, leave the country and go to a foreign land (ANyoen rememebr Lord Vader/Argentina) this is the thing to do IMHO.
I think people get confused over the issue of AVERAGE prices, that is why they are the VI’s favourite metric. Averages can be very misleading. I certainly don’t expect the average nominal prices to drop by even 5% this year, however I expect that if people actually want to seel their property, then in many instances they will have to drop their prices by 10 or 20%.
Back in January I was expecting a 2 or 3% drop in average prices because I understood that in a property bust it is the total number of transactions that fall off a cliff, and those transactions that do remain tend to be of higher quality properties, thus holding up the average. However it now seems I was optimistic, I really didn’t expect average prices to start dropping at a rate of close to 1% per month, though we have yet to see if that continues, if it does then PRICE CRASH is the appropriate phrase to use.
In reality, e.g. Lucan, there are properties for sale now that have dropped from an asking price of 430,000 at the peak in spring 2006, down to around 330,000 now. And they are still struggling to sell.
1 , we are down 2 percent so for from the first 5 months , with the last 2 months being -0.8 % , 7 more months og -0.8 percent will be -5.6 % on top of the -2% will be -7.6%
