House Prices Back at 2014 Price Levels?


#1

Not sure if this is in a good example, but asking prices in this estate are now back at the prices they sold for in 2014.

This is the house on MyHome.ie: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-glenbourne-grove-leopardstown-dublin-18/4447555

These are the selling prices in the estate according to the Property Price Register by year: https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=[address]=Glenbourne%20Grove%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Glenbourne%20Grove


#2

Copy and paste the link for the Property Price Register page to go to the page for that estate.


#3

I’m not surprised at all. Winter is coming. You ain’t seen nothing yet.

Time to sell up now if you can.


#4

The one that sold in 2014 (No. 3) was extended.


#5

And No. 7, 16 and 23? According to the CSO in July 2018, they stated that “From the trough in early 2013, prices nationally have increased by 81.3%”. If asking prices have some correlation to the end selling prices, does this mean prices will be down c. 40% come December?


#6

No. 7,16 & 23 didn’t sell in 2014. Who knows what will happen in December but your example here doesn’t indicate anything.


#7

Fixed link: Glenbourne Grove


#8

Is there any evidence of actual price declines in Dublin?

There seems to still be plenty of demand, surprisingly. Have heard anecdotally that banks are extremely busy with demand for mortgages, likewise solicitors with conveyancing.


#9

Someone pointed out to me a few weeks ago a good method of checking. She told me to check 3 bed semi-detached prices in estates near me and then compare the current asking prices on myhome.ie to the actual selling prices in that estate on the property price register over the past number of years.

The reason for semi-detached homes in an estate as they’re broadly similar and if it’s in an area you know, you can compare them better. For my area anyway in South Dublin, many asking prices are currently back at 2014 /2015 selling prices when using this method.


#10

It would be a good method if averaged out over lots of houses - we did this on the Pin with a large dataset (for this exact estate) when the market turned in 2012, but looking at the asking price of one house and selectively comparing it to the selling price of another house isn’t evidence of anything really.


#11

That’s the thing, large datasets don’t work as it would include many different types of houses. In a more local analysis based on the one house type, in the same estate, the asking prices today are the same as the selling prices in 2014/ 2015. And if the CSO states that house prices increased by 80% since 2013, to me that signals some significant house price declines over the next 6 months.


#12

Of course large datasets work, it’s the only way to spot a trend and if enough houses are included it averages out the variances of extensions/condition etc.

Maybe there will be significant declines / or maybe even small increases in the coming 6 months - but there’s no evidence of that yet. If anything the market appears quite resilient - I would have expected some weakness from covid, but it’s not showing up yet … in Dublin anyway.


#13

Not with the property price register as many of the prices listed today were agreed months ago, mostly pre-covid, given the delay between going from sale agreed to the price being recorded on the register.


#14

Yep, true - the delay in the register makes it hard to use it as a reference for what’s happening in the market right now. I’m seeing a lot of sale-agreeds though and low supply and that doesn’t point to a weak market.

If there’s a recession due to covid then I think we’ll see some price falls - but I think it could be well into next year before we see that.


#15

True. We basically have to rely on what the estate agents tell us until they’re proved right/ wrong in say three months time.

But in all honestly, and I’ve only been looking into this over the past few weeks, I’m genuinely shocked at some of the local asking prices being similar to actual selling prices back in 2014 /2015, even if it is a small dataset. It’s just seems contrary to everything I’ve been hearing over the past couple of years. But time will tell if it’s truly a blip or not.


#16

Or maybe if there’s anecdotal evidence from people in the market currently (either buying or selling), that could be really useful.
Interestingly - this one went sale agreed after the price was reduced to €480,000 on July 8th. Looks like it was nicely extended too, so you might expect it to have sold for higher … so yeah, maybe there are some signs of pricing weakness. Would love to hear from people actually in the market currently.


#17

Looks like it sold pretty quickly though. It was only on myhome.ie for the month of July, asking 497.5k. A bird in the hand being worth two in the bush – especially under present circumstances – I’d say they were pretty happy to get over 95% of asking for a quick sale. Previously it was on in October-November 2015 asking 415k and sold for 447k (PPR March 2016).


#18

Yeah, even that would show that asking prices are not at 2014/15 levels. This thread is interesting though, even if the title has a hint of click-bait about it!. Promped by this thread, I spent some on myhome this evening looking at other large estates that I know very well. From what I can see - recent asking prices do seem a little softer than I would have expected, based on selling prices over the past year or two.


#19

Have spoken to a couple of people currently in the market to buy in south Dublin (in the €700k+ price range), and both have said there is limited supply, and anything of interest that does come on market has a lot of interest with multiple parties bidding.
I note that The Nurseries in Dundrum have announced their final launch of new houses. This will be interesting, as the last launch was over subscribed, sales all happened just prior to the Covid outbreak. Sale prices (excluding VAT, as they are new builds) are now on the property price register. So look out for demand, and asking/sale prices for this estate - will be a real good benchmark for where the €750 - €900k market is at in SCD.


#20

Re: The Nurseries, actually, more like the €840 - €1m market, as I see “prices from 840k” for the 127 sq m 4 bed houses
Wow.
Wasn’t expecting them to be pitched at that level.
Be very interesting to see if these asking prices are achieved.