Good points. But I believe that Cairn Homes put down the gauntlet during his interview on RTE yesterday when he admitted that the average cost of their 17,000 sites (mostly in Dublin) was €32k. If you take out the cost of the expensive sites e.g. the €175k per site in Donnybrook, the majority of their sites cost a lot less.
Since they build their 3 bed semis for less than €140k, I think the prices of many of their future 3 bed semis in Dublin are likely to be selling for well under the €300k mark as they compete with both Glenveagh and the second hand market for buyers. Cairn Homes can still make significant profits at these ‘low’ prices.
I believe the first casualties will be ex-corporation homes within the M50 and all other second hand homes within a certain distance of where they will be building before the impact starts spreading out into all other areas.
17,000 units is a lot to get rid of as they will be competing with future executor sales, people selling due to WFH, the so-called vulture funds getting out, Glenveagh, other small developers and many other sources of supply that will be entering the market e.g. student accommodation units converted to residential which brings the ex-rental properties people were previously renting back into the market etc. etc.