There were also some other findings in the report:
“He said the reason for the Q3 rise in the annual figures lies in the fact that July to September is normally a weak period for pricing in the housing market, capturing the end of the summer season. With some pent-up demand caused by the constraints of lockdown and subsequent a “surge” in Q3 activity, the annual performance was flattered compared to last year’s normal weak period. Asking price inflation will likely fall back in Q4,” he said”
The finding that will most likely impact on future demand was on mortgage approvals:
“There was a quarterly rebound in mortgage approvals after lockdown in the third quarter to €670 million, but this was still down by roughly a third on the same period last year. Mr MacCoille estimated that transaction volumes in the period were down by about 37 per cent, which is only slightly better than the 40 per cent decline between April and June.”
He also commented: “The average mortgage approval in the quarter was €247,000 per application, which is up 4 per cent year-on-year. Mr MacCoille said this may have been because weaker and lower income applicants were weeded out of the system as many people among that cohort may have been excluded because they were on pandemic unemployment payments.”
So it looks like the figures are distorted by the Q2 sales just moving to Q3 and both the number of transactions and mortgage approvals in Q3 were still down by over a third in both cases. If both transactions and mortgage approvals were down over a third in Q3 on last years figures, I’m at a loss as to why I’ve being reading so much over the past three months about all this demand.
Cairn Homes also stated last month that they were already back to 85% of pre-covid construction levels, so it looks like new home building is holding up remarakably well despite the covid restrctions.
Link to article in Irish Times on the report here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/house-asking-prices-rebound-but-will-likely-fall-again-myhome-1.4368771