House Prices Back at 2014 Price Levels?


#378

No actually, well I suppose a couple were turnkey including this Carrickbrennan one and yes all EAs say the same that they will almost certainly above asking. But the majority have actually been houses in need of a facelift or else substantial works - it would pain me to pay huge money for a renovated house done in a way I don’t like and I can’t abide the new build estates with a footpath for a front garden and an A3 page for a back. But all have been in traditionally good neighbourhoods around Stillorgan and from Booterstown out to Monkstown.


#379

Interesting to hear experiences of others. Sounds like you and I are looking at houses in similar areas and in a similar price range. I have kept an eye on c.60 properties since March scattered from Sandymount to Dalkey in the €900k - €1.2m range. So far 16 have hit the PPR: 2 sold above asking, 14 below. Average sale price vs initial asking on those 16 sales is 5.9% lower.

Not followed the housing market for long enough to know if this is normal (and sample size is small), but based on what I have seen, houses in the traditionally most expensive areas of Dublin are struggling to make asking price.


#380

There is evidence of asking price declines in this market segment:


#381

Interesting. I am more so looking in the 650 - 900 range, depending on condition and how much work it’ll need. Based on what you and the other poster mentioned, and my own observations, it is the houses from 950 up that are struggling to meet asking. Basically anything above 920-950 eradicates most middle class working couples from a 3.5x salary cap standpoint (including me unfortunately!) unless they have an extremely chunky deposit from either working abroad or from parents assistance, so it’s a much shallower pool of buyers above that meaning less competition, drops in prices etc. I tend to find once a house is above a mill the odd 10k here or there becomes less relevant also. Good houses bewteen the 700-825 bracket have, in my personal experience, all tended to go above asking.


#382

Fair observations. I haven’t kept a close eye on that market but I’m suprised that the drying exemptions for the past number of months hasn’t hit the 650-900 market harder thus far as I expect this is prime middle class 4.5x range.
Personally, I stopped my active search the moment Paschal mentioned the Commission on Taxation being formed with its remit to include of “ensuring that there are sufficient resources available to meet the costs of the public services and supports in the medium and longer term”. Not locking in to a 3k mortgage only to have a USC 2.0 slapped on next October.
The market seemed to have broadly stalled pre-COVID, and generally think the plethora of reasons of why prices could fall in Dublin generally outweigh the reduced supply factor. The distribution of potential outcomes over the next 18-36 months is skewed heavily to the downside in my opinion…but i’ve been wrong before…


#383

Thay are year on year decline.

There have been a lot more significant asking price declines since March.

I would suggest that the true state of the market is more reflected in the collapse in volumes than in prices at this point.


#384

I would agree that surely the 4.5x exemptions will have dried up but haven’t seen the evidence, anecdotal or otherwise, for that other than the banks becoming a little more cagey. I would certainly like to see my competition dry up! Again if salaries of typical middle class professionals have remained unimpacted by Covid with savings helped from WFH, new mortgages shouldn’t be that much of an issue for this cohort, although perhaps capped at 3.5x - let’s take a solid professional couple earning 200k between them, so tapped out at 700k mortgage including any works they need to do to the property. This then comes down to your deposit - not many sitting on more than 250k deposit so again, unless they have a 4.5x examption, the >950k buyer pool remains very shallow - so you could get yourself a decent ‘bargain’ and why they will likley continue to go less than asking.

I unfortunately do not have the luxury of sitting on the sideline gallery for the next 12-24 months so hoping there is a big uptick in pent up housing supply to come online in Q1 next year and that the downward price trend continues. I’m buying with a 10year minimum horizon so just want the right house in the right area, not going to torture myself on what may or may not happen to prices thereafter!


#385

I think people may be overestimating the future level of demand from and the price that people working in multinationals etc. can pay in Ireland.

According to the IDA “IDA Ireland’s clients create high value jobs; with average salaries at €66,000 in 2017”

Many of the employees of multinational companies have been employed since the 1980’s onwards and would already be homeowners since the 1990’s, 2000’s or would have purchased one of the c. 100,000 new homes built in the last ten years.


#386

Just for one anecdotal story, I approached a broker earlier in 2020 and despite having a household income of >€200k, I was told all exemptions were completely gone with no discretion allowed (there was one crowd offering them but their rates were crazy). That said, I wasn’t seriously interested at the time so did not pursue any further and I believe the stance may have softened in recent weeks.

Regarding the €950k+ market, I may be wrong but I have always got the impression this is primarily the domain of cash buyers - i.e. those with significant inheritances, trading up/down from previous purchases which appreciated massively or mortgage coming from bank of mum and dad…but perhaps that is jealousy talking.

Best of luck with your search!


#387

I second your opinion - what you’ve said is in line with what I’ve seen - and once the economy comes off the morphine in 2021 it will only get worse…prob in the region of 10-15% falls.


#388

10-15% drops from what levels ?
Because prices are up circa 5% since you originally said this was “guaranteed” to happen.
So we should expect 20% price drops from here?


#389

SCD is down 5%…it will fall another 5-10%…guaranteed

Trust me, anyone with a big pile in D2/4/6 are wishing they’d sold back when I called this…it’s a long cold shitty winter hanging on to the pipe dream some real estate agent in a cheap suit sold you…


#390

I’m hoping for actual (not asking) price drops too - just not seeing it in SCD (yet!). Zero supply.
Let’s hope this “long cold shitty winter” will bring out some desperate sellers in the Spring, cause they ain’t selling yet.


#391

Lol. I’ve a ‘big pile’ in 1 of those areas and it’s nice and warm where I am and where I intend to be for the next 40 years!

You really do seem to have a massive chip on your shoulders


#392

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.


#393

Bitterness is a shocking thing. Just cause I live in a warm sunny country full of skinny hot bikini-clad girls earning a pile of cash while my properties ride the wave of yet another property boom whilst paying sweet FA tax, that’s not a reason to be jealous lads.


#394

#395

Not SCD but plenty of evidence of significant asking price drops in the commuter zones. Many such properties have been sitting on the market for a long time.

As an example this bungalow in Portarlington was at 275k back in March/April. Its asking 225k since June. Thats roughly 20% drop and still no sign of it selling. Will probably need to deceease to sub 200k to sell.

As has been suggested elsewhere its likely that the collapse in transaction volumes paints the most accurate picture of the current state of the market.


#396

Agreed that much lower transaction volumes does not paint a healthy picture of any market, in general.
But how much of this is due to collapse of supply? And how much is due to a collapse in demand (if any?).
Seems to me - in SCD at least - there is plenty of demand, but just nothing for sale!
While I agree the risks are skewed to the downside, if any price decreases do materialise next year, I cannot see them being of the scale we saw in the financial crisis.


#397

Yes I think there is only a slight chance that any price drops will be of a significant magnitude. Banks seem to be extending credit still and that is the key part (for me at least).