House Prices Back at 2014 Price Levels?


#21

if thats right they wont sell, 127sqm for a four bed isnt going to wash at 840k surely?

pretty uninspiring looking houses as well.


#22

Will be interesting all right. There was an interesting article in Forbes recently about a developer in New York dropping his luxury apartment prices by 50% and he said "we are taking a proactive approach by significantly reducing the prices on the remaining homes at The Getty Residences to reflect today’s environment.”. Will be interesting to see if the developers of the luxury homes and apartments in Dublin follow through here too.

The article is here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisachamoff/2020/08/03/manhattan-developer-deeply-discounts-unsold-units-in-ultra-luxury-peter-marino-building-on-the-high-line/#2969ddd61ec3


#23

we dont have developments analogous to that here really.


#24

Couple of ‘luxury’ developments in Blackrock all seem to be selling post lock-down. Time will tell whether or not the asking prices were achieved, or if there is a haircut being applied to asking prices.

All houses now sale agreed:

Looks like most of the houses sale agreed, apartments still available:


#25

You’re probably right. But Lansdowne Place in Ballsbridge would probably be our version of such a development, so I reckon that’s the one to watch from the high end perspective.


#26

134 sq m asking 840k.

Here are the sales from the first phase, you need to add VAT at 13.5% to these numbers. Number 13, 150 sq m, sold for €972k :flushed:


#27

Where did you get that data?


#28

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/


#29

From the dates, wouldn’t most of them have gone sale agreed last last year or very early this year? It’s a much different market now.


#30

Yes, sale agreed before crisis
That’s my point exactly - the second phase of this development, which is launching now, will be a good litmus test of the market in the 840k+ price range in South Dublin.
The guide prices released (840k for 134 sq m) would suggest an increase in asking from the first phase, which all went sale agreed in Q1 this year.
Also interestingly, there doesn’t seem to be any haircut on sale agreed prices (before Covid outbreak) to actual sale prices, indicating full asking prices were achieved.


#31

I think this article from February 2020 (pre-covid) gives the real situation in relation to the true selling situation at the high-end of the market. " Plan B for D4 boutique apartments as buyers become renters instead - Luxury schemes switch to rental units as Brexit blamed for sluggish sales market"

The Irish Times article is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644


#32

It been very confusing over the past 24-36 months. First Brexit was to increase prices. Then they blamed Brexit for nobody buying. I don’t believe there was such demand for all these high-end units during the Celtic Tiger era, when the banks were throwing out money. I don’t see how there’s demand now.


#33

Are you looking at the apartment market? Then yes, I believe there is evidence of price declines. I read on a separate thread that sale prices in Castleforbes Square in Dublin 1, for example, were down circa 10% from last year.
However, it is not clear that the new build ‘family homes’ market in South Dublin has been impacted at all. In fact, if the asking prices for phase 2 of The Nurseries are achieved, it would suggest a strong/rising market.


#34

I don’t know. Maybe. But I’ve seen a lot of new build houses also entering the rental market due to Brexit etc. over the past two years. And, in my area anyway, many still seem to be empty, so there doesn’t appear to be much demand from either buyers or renters, at the prices they’re seeking anyway, and that was pre-covid.


#35

prices on proby were dropped for sure, they had a hard time shifting all of them after the initial flurry.

its not that nice a development really.


#36

wow! i dont get those prices at all.


#37

There’s no way prices are going up…it might take a while for prices to fall…but south they are going!


#38

A lot of people are comparing now to 2007/2008. I’m thinking it’s more like 2010. There’s still a few buyers who believe the worst is behind us. I think it’s going to get much worse.

We don’t have many more Googles, investment funds, lower interest rates, Government’s ability to borrow more etc. to get the show back on the road. This may truly be the end of property market as we have known it for the past 30 years.


#39

There’s a few headwinds - domestic recession, credit tightening, shift to work from home, brexit & British record economic decline - I cannot see the south Dublin market rising in the near future.


#40

There is a good opinion piece in the Financial Times today. It’s behind a paywall but I’ll put the link below. Here is a summary of his main points:

"First, the mass move to working from home has shown that remote working is viable, leading to less demand for commercial space as businesses close or scale-back offices. Already, big companies are extending homeworking beyond the autumn, with Google telling most of its 200,000 staff to stay at home until July 2021.

Second, after coronavirus, governments will be looking for new sources of revenue. Stressed public coffers expose the real estate sector to higher taxes: the underlying asset (land) is immovable and politicians will favour taxing property over raising taxes on labour (income tax) at a time of high unemployment. That puts a drag on the value of real estate to the holder, again reducing returns.

Third, owning land and property has long been seen a good way of preserving wealth and protecting capital against inflation, because values and rents typically increase in times of inflation. However, investors today might question whether inflation will be a serious threat in the years ahead. After all, the US consumer price index has remained below 2.5 per cent from 2012 onwards, reaching a low of 0.1 per cent in 2015.

There is a final long-term question hanging over the market — that of demographic shifts. As populations continue to age, there will be fewer economically active, younger people relative to retirees. This will leave fewer buyers for property, adding to downward pressure on prices."

The article link is here: https://www.ft.com/content/e8d5f5ee-4d00-44fa-a2f5-716af1a8e24e