House Prices Back at 2014 Price Levels?


#61

where do we end up with all this central banking financial involvement?

personally the amount of debt being built up is a scary prospect. do we have 1 or both of these?

  1. Large scale inflation of all assets, seems to be going strong in stock markets
  2. Debt Jubilees - the sheer scale of debt CB’s are carrying I believe can never be paid back.

interesting times but not a time of holding cash it seems.


#62

I agree re the logic but I know of one place on the Southside which last week was 10% over AP after two days. I happened to pass it as well and there was a queue to see it (I know with Covid you have to…).


#63

Good point about a potential debt jubilee. But are we looking at it from our side of the equation i.e. we’re highly indebted.

If there is a debt jubilee, wouldn’t the low debt countries block it. If there was a central bank debt write off, that would mean we all basically got free cash. If I was an eastern european country, I wouldn’t be too happy with that :slight_smile:


#64

But then again, logic probably couldn’t have foreseen in 2010 the Googles, Facebooks, investment funds, negative interest rates etc. impact on the property market, so there are many unknowns.

However, this time, I think all our potential get out of free cards may have been played.

We now have significantly more debt, there aren’t many more Googles etc., interest rates can’t go much further into negative territory without annoying our low debt eastern european euro members, not much bulk buying of properties at significant discounts left for the investment funds to get interested in etc.

If anything, with the international tax rules changing, we may lose some of the Googles, the investment funds may be looking to get out rather than get in, can we really keep borrowing at these levels etc.

Maybe there are queues for houses, but if they were real and not rent-a-queue, I’m sure the media would be all over it. P.S. I don’t know if there are rent a queue companies, so my last point is partly in jest.


#65

I know a couple of people looking to buy ‘family home’ in SCD at the moment, and echoing what has already been said by others on this thread - anything that comes on market of interest, there is strong demand and multiple bidders.
Again, until we see the data for what houses are actually selling for we can find any number of logical reasons for why prices ‘must’ drop - but the evidence will be in the data. Until the data becomes available, we can get some information from people currently in the market to buy.
In general I do think we will have price drops, but in the ‘family’ home market in SCD, I think any drops will be in the single digit percentage.
To answer the question posed on the name of this thread, we will have to wait to see the data!


#66

True about the needing to wait for the data.

However, does anyone have any idea about whats going on with all those ex-AirBnB properties and houses in South Dublin that used to be rented to students. Are the owners going to leave them vacant for the next 12 months or will they re-enter the market as family homes.

For example, if a house near UCD was previously rented to students, wouldn’t that house now need to be rented out or sold off as a family home?

Just to add to my last point. If, for example, there’s an outbreak in UCD a few days before the mid-term or Christmas break, those students would then be stuck in Dublin for the holidays, so I don’t see how the universities can come back in any meaningful way, so those ex-student rentals may most likely be re-entering the market in the next month or so as family homes.


#67

Another example of asking prices back at 2014/ 2015 selling prices. This one is on Clonkeen Road, Deansgrange, Blackrock, Dublin.

MyHome link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/137-clonkeen-road-deansgrange-blackrock-dublin/4448371

When searching the Property Price Register, use the search term “Clonkeen Rd” as it appears most of the entries were abbreviated from ‘Road’ to ‘Rd’ on the register.


#68

Did this house sell back then? Or do you just mean other houses on the same road?


#69

I copied and pasted the sold properties addresses into google maps with streetview. They all look fairly similar from what I could see. A good amount sold so it’s relatively easy to compare (I think).

Maybe my method is wrong, but it’s the only method I have at the moment to check if there are signals in the market going one way or the other.


#70

24 Clonkeen Road just sold for €640k in May 2020.
If number 137 achieves the asking of 595k, then that would be evidence of a price increase IMO, given

  • 24 is much bigger than 137 (146 sq m versus 123 sq m)
  • 24 is in much much better condition, 137 needs a huge amount of work (150k renovation job)
    Based on a selling price of 640k for number 24, then 137 is over-priced at 595k.

#71

Maybe. But there are 12 very similar properties on the same road that sold for very similar prices to the current asking price in 2014 and 2015.


#72

In August 2019, the CSO stated “Dublin residential property prices have risen 95.0% from their February 2012 low”.

The CSO must have been right but if these are now the asking prices, shouldn’t the data over the next 12 months start to show a similar type of fall (obviously not 95%) as these asking prices start entering the property price register that the CSO uses to compile their data?.


#73

It is the actual sale price - not asking price - that enters the property price register.
For example, 24 Clonkeen Rd was asking €595k. It sold for €640k - this is what appears in the price register.


#74

live_wires post has highlighted the fallacy of what you are trying to do, even on the same road, seemingly similar houses can have wildly different prices because of plot size, extensions, renovations etc etc.

to bring it one step further, i live on a road with 19 totally identical houses, all built 3 years ago give or take. The cheapest house was x and the most expensive was x+175k.

Cheapest house was a mid terrace with an easterly facing garden and most expensive was an end of terrace with a westerly facing garden in the second phase of the development.

so even where the houses are identical with the same ber and build quality factors like garden size, aspect etc all come into play.


#75

I would have to agree with you 100%. But, if there is any correlation between asking prices and the end selling price, the signals seem to point in a particular direction.

In relation to the home that sold in May, I assume that may have been sale agreed back in January/ February (pre-covid) for it to enter the property price register in May.


#76

For info

CSO June 2020 property prices are out

Mortgage lending Q2 2020 is also out


#77

Property Prices = History

Mortgage Lending = Future

Down she goes…


#78

So according to those figures:

In June 2020, the CSO stated, “Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low”

In August 2019, the CSO stated “Dublin residential property prices have risen 95.0% from their February 2012 low"

Is that a c. 3% drop in Dublin between the two dates?

Current asking prices, if translated into actual sold prices, would seem to indicate much bigger falls being reported in the upcoming November/ December Residential Property Price Index.


#79

Good spot!


#80

I think 3-5% is prob right - but I think there’s another 5% fall at least.

I’m discounting 10% of properties in the €1m range…