House Prices Back at 2014 Price Levels?


#81

*off


#82

Here’s one in Donnybrook, which seems to have an asking price that’s similar to the 2012 selling prices.


#83

That was peak prices (Feb 2007) for Dublin all residential to trough (Feb 2012).
The 95% figure was when they used a base year of 2005.
The base year was since revised from 2005 to 2015, so using the new base year the fall from peak to trough was 91.4%


#84

I think the report states “…from their February 2012 low”.


#85

this is my last effort at trying to help you on this,

a quick google of 6 bushfield terrace which i presume you are basing your post off shows a much more desirable redbrick terrace v the 1960s house listed here, it was renovated and sold for 1.27m a few years later.


#86

No, I was basing it off this one which seems to be a similar terraced house:

22/05/2012 €620,000.00 21 Bushfield Terrace, Donnybrook, Dublin 4, Dublin


#87

but 695k is 12% more than 620k?

and the 620k one was renovated and a lot bigger.


#88

Very true. But the CSO has stated house prices in Dublin had increased by 95% between 2013 and August 2019. Shouldn’t the asking prices for these terraced homes now be at least €1,000,000?


#89

you are comparing apples and oranges, if you want to compare two renovated houses on bushfield terrace one sold for 620k in 2012 and one sold for 1.27m in 2015 and one for 1.4m in 2018.


#90

That’s the exact point I’m making. The asking prices in Dublin appear to be showing that the falls coming over the next 6 months are going to be very significant.

As the CSO data shows, prices did increase significantly between 2013 and 2019. If the current asking prices are any indication of the end selling price, the data should, in theory I guess, report significant falls over the next 6 months.


#91

you arent understanding me, the house you have listed is nothing like:

a) the renovated house sold in 2012 for 620k as it was 600 sq feet bigger and freshly renovated
b) the unrenovated house sold in 2012 for 695k which was subsequently renovated and sold for 1.27 m as it was bigger and a different style house

so your ‘data’ is telling you nothing as once you scratch the surface you realise you are comparing completely different houses.

the CSO data has shown no drop in prices the past few months, there may be some to come, but not at the level you are perceiving with the analysis you are trying to do.


#92

Maybe you’re right. But number 18 doesn’t look like it’s falling down. They also don’t seem to be so big that someone could spend an extra €600k on them to double the price.


#93

Lads - the best comparison is to look at the exact same property over time - heaps of examples on here…


#94

Good point. I can’t argue with that I guess.


#95

I don’t think your point about supposedly lower current asking prices translating into future lower selling prices is actually reality. I’m not saying that as a criticism of you, similar to you I have also noticed things being priced well or priced perhaps lower than they might have been previously, but more often than not upon making enquiries about those properties they are over asking – sometimes significantly so.

Another user above mentioned a property 10% over asking after 2 days. I know of a south city house last week in the €500 - €750k range that was at c. 15% over asking after 3 or 4 days, and I know of countless other properties with bidding over asking price across the property spectrum, from inner-city 1 bed buy-to-lets to SCD family homes. There seems to be a ferocious appetite for every property type at the moment.

Personally, I perceive the reasons for the current appetite as being a mix of a number of things; pent up demand from lockdown, people in fear of losing jobs or mortgage approval (but never worrying whatsoever about paying a future mortgage if they buy and then lose their job), general consumer confidence bolstered by the soft landing everyone seems to have had from Covid thanks to Government supports, and some other factors such as being sick of their current homes after being locked down in them.

While they are all interesting reasons to buy, on the flip side I can’t see where growth can possibly come from aside from printing money. The world seems to be falling apart, the working from home movement seems likely to endure in some shape or form (which could reduce pressure on the Dublin housing market) but as many others have said, the financial markets seem to be operating in their own world and in spite of all of the underlying economic factors being bad, the markets are rallying. The Dublin housing market appears to be the same for the time being.

If the market is left without Government / central bank interference, I think price drops are inevitable but who’s to say to what extent and how long they will take. As matters stand, there seems to be little or no evidence of price drops, I think at the peak of coronavirus fear c. March/April some investor vendors were willing to take 5-10% reductions to close sales as a knee jerk reaction to the complete lockdown of markets but my impression is that there is no longer any such appetite given the way the market has rebounded. Just my two cents - as I said, it doesn’t make sense to me and logically speaking prices should drop given what is happening in the world.


#96

All good points. I just think some of the asking prices at 2012 - 2015 actual selling prices appear to be a bit of the canary in the coalmine.

I don’t think money printing will factor into semi-detached homes in the suburbs as its really only investment/ pension funds etc. than can take advantage of that and they’re not really that interested in that market in Ireland, especially at today’s prices and I think they have enough current problems meeting redemption requests etc.

I think money printing only mattered last time as the investment funds were able to convince investors to hand over their money due to the low interest rate environment and the fact they could bulk buy thousands of properties at significant discounts. I don’t think those kind of opportunities are there at the moment.


#97

im not sure if you missed it but 18 is 90 sqm and 21 was 150 sq/m


#98

I know of one couple who have gone sale agreed on a townhouse in Dublin 8 on this basis ie worried about whether, once current mortgage approval runs out, it will be possible to be approved again later. Anecdotally, there are reports of the banks tightening up somewhat…which of course will impact on the abilities of sellers to achieve prices


#99

I think you’re right Poacher - it’s a combination of the buyer dynamic you just described combined with sellers who are keen to get out before the market falls…,


#100

Yes banks have tightened up and it is also commonly said that they are not lending to Covid-impacted people (even those whose net incomes were unaffected but whose employer required Govt supports) so those people are currently knocked out of the market, along with those who actually lost their jobs and are now in probationary periods in new jobs where they won’t be eligible to borrow for 6+ months depending on the terms of employment. That’s quite a lot of people presumably currently out of the market, not participating, yet even in their absence there is still a huge level of activity and these people will presumably start participating in the market once again once eligible, thus further driving up demand. It’s a strange market.