House Prices Back at 2014 Price Levels?


#101

I guess I can’t argue with you as I can only go by streetview. But I do get what you’re saying, and you do seem to know the property.

But if you were putting number 21 up for sale, what asking price do you think they should ask for? And, remember, the CSO says prices increased by 95% between 2013 and 2019.


#102

there is very little similar for sale at the moment but going on how D4/6 pricing tends to go, a relatively recently refurbed circa 1650 sq foot house would probably go on at circa 1.1 / 1.15m id expect.

or if you take the 695k asking of your one and extrapolate based on size that gives 1.15m as a minimum as it doesnt factor in renovation / upgrade costs.


#103

Maybe. €450k seems like a lot of money that could be spent on renovations on a terraced house that looks fairly solid already.

For example, the latest SCSI Real Cost of New Housing Delivery Report 2020, stated it costs c. €140k to build a 114 sq.m. home.

I know renovation costs are completely different cost-wise. But maybe.you’re right.


#104

its 90 sq/m, it doesnt matter how solid it is, you need to add another 60 sq/m to it to make it comparable, so there will be a cost to that and the rest will need to be renovated when you are at it, and thats assuming it has the same space available to do it as the other one did, i dont know.

the general consensus is say 2k per sq/m to build / renovate so thats 150*2k = 300k + 695k total of 1m.

and generally people pay a premium for houses where its already done.

what would you expect no 21 to list for and why?


#105

Ok, one more for asking prices vs selling prices in 2014.

65 Weston Meadows, Lucan, Asking €345k: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/65-weston-meadows-lucan-co-dublin/4444558

63 Weston Meadows, Lucan, Sold €322,000 in August 2014.

The CSO states that Dublin prices increased by 95% between 2013 and 2019.


#106

Thanks for the figures and you’re definitely right on the premium for already renovated homes.

In relation to what I believe in relation to asking prices. That’s kinda what I’m trying to figure out. I have no real idea, which is why i’m going for the, and I’ll readily admit, the most simplistic approach I have at the moment.


#107

FYI. For anyone who may be interested.

This is a report by the building industry lobby group, Irish Institutional Property, in August 2020, where they state Dublin “has a surplus of c.100,000 family homes, given its population structure.”

The report is here: https://irp-cdn.multiscreensite.com/4065c16c/files/uploaded/Identify%20Consulting%20Full%20Report%20FINAL.pdf


#108

Asking Prices 2020 vs Selling Prices in 2014.

6 Killeen Avenue, Malahide, Dublin - Asking €475,000: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/6-killeen-avenue-malahide-dublin/4448824

6 Killeen Avenue, Malahide, Dublin - Sold €440,000 in May 2014.

The CSO states that Dublin prices increased by 95% between 2013 and 2019.


#109

In the category at the bottom of that page labelled ‘price changes in Malahide’ there are a number of drops recorded and no rises. One drop is 15%.

In the category underneath it labelled ‘market trends in Malahide’ , it states that there have been 23 decreases and 1 increase ovwr the past 3 months.

Market average within Malahide is stated as a 5% decrease over the period.

This tallies with my observation of outer Dublin (non SCD) areas including Wicklow over the same period.


#110

Comparing online price drops with increases as a way to prove market weakness is a fallacy, sellers don’t need to increase prices online … the house simply sells above asking. Asking price decreases will always outnumber increases by a huge margin - even in a strong market.


#111

Goodbodys Stockbrokers stated this time last year in an article by the Irish TImes titled " Despite shortage, houses being left unsold", that houses weren’t selling in Dublin in the numbers that most people think, where Goodbody stated:

“There have been plenty of reports from the industry of developments not selling out… Goodbody crunched the numbers and found that in the four quarters to the first three months of this year, there were 2,500 more units built than sold nationwide. Most of this occurred in Dublin, where new supply was 6,905 and purchases were 5,093.”.

The link to the Irish Times article is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/despite-shortage-houses-being-left-unsold-1.3928592


#112

A comparison I came across 2014 vs 2020

13 Princeton Ardilea Dublin 14
2014 - sold 1,075,000.00
2020 - sold 900,000


#113

This indeed does look like actual evidence of a price drop - 16% lower than sale price in 2014.
What was the property asking price in 2020? Can’t find any link to advert…
I see number 6 is currently on the market asking 895k, having sold for 950k in 2014.


#114

Good spot, but sorry to burst your bubble on this one; an entry in the property price register does not mean a sale. There has been no change of ownership of that house since it sold in 2014, nor any application to the land registry to change the registered owner. Given the property price register entry was in May 2020, even as slow as the PRAI are, there’s no way they would not have received the transfer application now. It would appear the transaction in the property price register is not a sale and is something else.

As @live_wire rightly points out, if there was no recent sales advert for a house in the property price register then unfortunately it more often than not isn’t worth taking into consideration as a bona fide sale comparable. Even there is a sale in the register, at a price significantly less than 2014, there’s no guarantee it would at arm’s length because it was never marketed for sale - it could be between related parties. The “Not Full Market Price” category in the register doesn’t mean what it says, it’s more related to selling a share in a property.


#115

The asking in price in Autumn 2019 was €795, with the same agent as No. 6. That’s interesting re the register but it was definitely marketed - I was at one of the open viewings, it was busy!


#116

A buyers agent isn’t exactly an independent voice…


#117

Here is another interesting one:

13/05/2020 - €640,000.00 - 95 MOUNT MERRION AVE, BLACKROCK, DUBLIN
27/03/2013 - €610,000.00 - 95 Mount Merrion Avenue, Blackrock


#118

I am here to contribute, not insult and I would suggest you endeavour to do the same and for the record I won’t acknowledge any further unwarranted insults from you. I made an independent contribution based on facts. If you would like to challenge anything I said based on facts available to you, by all means go ahead.

I’m not going to name any names or say anything more about it after this post, because it’s none of my business or indeed anyone else’s, but to avoid being called a liar again it is a fact that both this house and the previously referenced 13 Princeton house are owned by the same estate of a deceased person, who was one of the wealthiest people in the country. Again, the Land Registry does not show any change in ownership here and there is no pending application to transfer it in spite of the transaction having appeared in the register over 3 months ago.

It does not appear to be a coincidence that neither have transferred ownership to third parties, and that both had the same owner, and that both have sold for less than the owner paid at the bottom of the market. It is a good spot on your part yet again, but unfortunately it does not appear to tell us anything about the current state of the market given the facts at hand.


#119

95 Mount Merrion Avenue, Blackrock


#121

That’s fair enough, thanks for your info. Re 13 Princeton I was just making the point that it had been marketed on the open market. As had 95 Mount Merrion Avenue https://www.lisney.com/sale/bungalow-for-sale-in-mount-merrion-avenue-blackrock/25307