House Prices Back at 2014 Price Levels?


#122

First entry for Prospect House in the price register, it sold for 935k, which is 1.5% below listed price of 950k. This is actual evidence of resilience in the new build “family home” market in South Dublin.
Of the 7 houses in this development, I understand 5 are sold with two remaining on the market. These would all have gone sale agreed since lockdown ended, and are in the 900k+ price bracket. Let’s wait for the next entries in the price register for actual evidence of what prices transactions are taking place at.
3 Prospect Hill, Blackrock, Co. Dublin, Ireland

Sold for €935,000 on 2020-07-17. First appeared on 2020-08-05


#123

Thanks for the examples. While there may be good reasons (as others have pointed out), they are still good potential examples and keep them coming if you do find anymore.

The CSO stated in July that “Dublin residential property prices have risen 91.4% from their February 2012 low”, and it’s good to see potential examples to see if the signals are pointing in any particular direction, up or down, and to cut through the noise.


#124

I have no information about arms-length transactions but I do have historical asking prices from myhome.ie. For the two properties mentioned:

13 Princeton Ardilea Dublin 14 (sold 2014 for 1,075k, 2020 for 900k)
Advertised Apr 2014 asking 1,175k; Dec 2019 -Jan 2020 asking 795k.

95 Mount Merrion Avenue, Blackrock (sold 2013 for 610k, 2020 for 640k)
Advertised Oct 2012- Jan 2013 asking 595k; Dec 2019 - Jan 2020 asking 595k.

(I don’t know if the fact they were marketed in the depths of winter says anything about whether they were “normal”).


#125

Next entry for Prospect House development, sold for €875k which was equal to the asking price. Again, this should have went sale agreed post lock-down ending. Surprising there wasn’t some haircut on these prices!

2 Prospect Lodge, Blackrock, Co. Dublin, Ireland

Sold for €875,000 on 2020-06-15. First appeared on 2020-06-24


#126

Maybe.

But I would assume even the most eager buyers would spend at least a couple of months looking around before jumping in. In this case and given the date it was entered into the property price register, I would suspect this was agreed or the buyers had made their decision before lockdown.


#127

Possibly.
So you are expecting to see (significant?) reduction in sale prices for all the other houses in this development that go sale agreed post lock-down? Same for The Nurseries, and all other new developments?


#128

Maybe not in such a short time-frame.

You will probably disagree, but I believe all standard three/ four bedroom house in Dublin will see significant falls in prices over the next ten years.

From looking over everything in the past couple of months, economy wise etc. and then looking back at everything that has happened over the past 10 years, I do believe that any three-bed semi in Dublin that would have an asking price today of c. €500k, will have an asking price of c.€150k (at most) in 2030.

Call me insane, but it’s just my assumption at the moment, which may change.


#129

Well that is certainly not the case in the immediate future! As someone actively looking to buy a 3/4 family home in SCD, i can tell you prices are not dropping. For example this house that we viewed https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/75-stillorgan-heath-stillorgan-county-dublin/4362563
Listed seeking 775 and as of this morning is under offer at €800k with 3 bidding, so likley to go a touch higher.

As someone looking I can tell you any good SCD family home that is close to turnkey is going for asking or above right now.


#130

You’re predicting a 70% price drop in the next 9 years?
Yes, it’s fair to say I disagree.


#131

Maybe.

But mortgages are over 20 - 30 years. If someone needs to buy now, I guess they have to buy at today’s asking prices.

But, if they believe they will have any equity in ten years times, I believe they will be mistaken. If they have no intention of selling in the next 60 years, then it’s not a problem. But it may become a problem if they see new buyers in 2030 buying mansions for what they paid for their semi in 2020.


#132

Thanks for sharing your buying experience.
This is broadly in-line with other active buyers I know looking to buy ‘turn-key’ family homes in SCD at the moment. Very limited supply, and anything of interest that comes to market has multiple bidders.
Very frustrating for you no doubt. Hang in there!


#133

Thanks. It’s a balancing act of really wanting to buy our own place mixed with trepidation of what might happen the market i.e. should we just be patient and wait until 2021. But all the first hand evidence I have from looking is that the 3/4 bed SCD house price is absolutely not going to collapse, good ones will meet asking price while real fixer uppers may well go below but not by a lot.

Other properties however - I wouldn’t like to be trying to sell a 2 bed apartment in the Beacon for example!

Also Prop Queries, I really do not see how you a predicting a 500k - 150k collapse!!


#134

I suppose my assumption is based on that the majority of semis in South Dublin were purchased by civil servants and other workers on similar salaries etc. many, many years ago.

I just don’t see what jobs will be in Dublin in 2030 that will pay salaries that will be able to purchase these same properties at c. €500k as they enter probate.

I believe salaries will actually start falling very quickly and taxes will start rising over the next ten years in both nominal and real terms. Many younger workers will also have to start contributing more and more into their pensions and if they do buy a home now, there will probably be very little equity left when they retire to pay for nursing home costs etc.

I also believe inheritance taxes etc. will also increase significantly over the next few years and there will be very little in lump sum terms to pass onto the younger generation to help them pay for or offset against such prices.


#135

I’d be bearish too because of the economic fundamentals- rising unemployment, negative sentiment, lack of speculative demand, tightening credit, drop in mortgage drawdowns, increase in rental supply, drop in rent prices. Also I don’t understand how the EU and US and others can keep printing money without inflation becoming an issue? Would this lead to a rise in interest rates? These fundamentals cld change of course for the better or worse, but there is a lot of unknowns.


#136

That’s all true, especially inflation eventually feeding through.

In relation to the money printing, my main concern would be the eastern european members of the eurozone.

Some have very little debt and how long before they start asking serious questions about when the western european members are going to start paying back this debt.

Otherwise it was just free money and if I was an eastern european, fiscally responsible eurozone member, I’d be fairly…


#137

Also I don’t understand how the EU and US and others can keep printing money without inflation becoming an issue? Would this lead to a rise in interest rates?

This is where it is at for me. There is a huge amount of groupthink out there that money can be printed indefinitely without consequence. Listening to a recent David McWilliams podcast it was littered with this idea.

Some guys he had on had written a book and were advocating massive money printing by the Central Banks on the basis that: (I’m paraphrasing) ‘well it hasn’t caused inflation to date’
Ireland should borrow like a whore with this ‘cheap money’, even advocating ‘dual interest rates’ - savers get paid, and borrowers are charged a negative interest rate to encourage more borrowing.

What planet are you living on? We have seen massive asset price inflation this last decade due to previous Central Bank interventions. It is naïve to suggest that this asset price inflation does not find it’s way into the high street economy. Massive rent increases in Ireland being the best example of this close to home.


#138

The cheap money for Ireland and the rest is not without costs.

Many elderly German savers had intended to survive on the interest off their savings.


#139

yes, I agree. cash through REITs/ foreign investment pushed up prices for the regular homebuyer and AIRBnB pushed up prices and rents. Also stock speculation - Robinhood springs to mind! That all seems very 2000 ish.

And yes @snaps - how is this all going to work if people can’t live off their savings in retirement, thanks for sharing this article.


#140

Business Post:

One in ten property transactions were renegotiated due to the impact of Covid-19 according to a survey carried out by the Society of Chartered Surveyors of Ireland. More than 260 estate agents responded to the survey which showed that 73 per cent reported inquiries from prospective buyers at the same or increased levels since the reopening of the sector. Additionally, the level of viewings has increased since early June with 63 per cent of agents reporting an increase or similar trend in viewing levels when compared to pre-Covid-19 times.


#141

Another one that has now gone sale agreed above asking. 2014 it is not!