House prices ‘could drop 70% compared to peak’ → breakingnews.ie/ireland/hous … 66713.html
It should have said: However, he admits to being one of the more realistic analysts.
Link to the offensive article:
irisheconomy.ie/index.php/20 … lumps-end/
(the link to the VoxEU paper is also there).
A pessimistic view is for a 80%-90% drop.
Given where we are now, a 70% drop is a real possibility.
Now that’s just sensationalistism. I couldn’t possibly take a statement like that seriously, even if it is backed up by evidence from other booms and busts. Burgess is different, I tell you…
One by one the penny begins to drop.
When we finally get to 70% falls, I’ll be amazed if there are any economists left in this country who didn’t claim to predict it.
The sad thing is that the data has been there all along, not only for the ridiculous concept of the soft landing, but for the likely extent of the falls and the likelihood of a financial crisis. It would require Ireland to be very different for it not to happen, for there to be some exceptional circumstance or management of the economy. The only fundamentals in Ireland that are different to other countries are fundamental mistakes and even then, they are not that different…
Does he mention how much they’ve fallen so far?
House price fall could be worst in history: academic - Eamon Quinn → tribune.ie/business/news/art … y-academi/
The only way we will avoid > 70% falls is if the government:
- cuts the minimum wage to below US levels in US$ terms
- cuts welfare payments to below UK levels in £ terms
- issues 200k residence and work permits to non-EU nationals
Since at best one out of the three will happen, > 70% falls are a pretty safe bet.
Tell you what… lets wait oh about 15 years, see how it pans out.
I don’t think those measures would help. All they would do is make the affordability of homes for a large portion of the population impossible, causing the collapse to accelerate but probably to a similar depth than if the measures weren’t adopted.
My own observations in Galway as a whole are as follows:
Standard semi-detached houses have fallen by about 37% in Galway City areas.
In socially disadvantaged areas of the county, they have probably fallen by up to 60%.
Coles2, I never said that a 70pc fall was in itself a bad thing, just that the only policies that would avoid it would be a Thatcherite overhaul of the various ways the State intervenes in the labour market. All of the tinkering that is going on (moratorium on repossessions, PR attacks by Green Ministers on the banks, pretending that investing in the knowledge economy is going to help all the construction workers in their 30s or older who are out of a job or that FDI will save us) is just consuming productive resources that would otherwise bring about recovery sooner. It will probably end up making prices fall further as our overshoot will be worse than the 1980s.
We have 300k empty dwellings already and it looks like we are in 2-3 years of 50k+ annual emigration and additional falls in employment. That is house price Armageddon.
Do we really want to stop house prices from falling by > 70%? It seems to me like this has to happen to bring us back in line with hisorical averages.
I’ve been living in Australia for the last 3 years and won’t be moving home until we get to 70%; however long that takes. Think I will be home in 2010. Off topic but the property market in Sydney 2010 is very reminiscent of Ireland 2007.
So about 104% more to fall.
Believing the 50% stories is a mugs game, but it will be believed, property will be purchased even at current fuckwit levels.
Sadly, unfortunately also v true is…
“Tell you what… lets wait oh about 15 years, see how it pans out.
Both of ye speak the truth (as I see it)
My two cents.
Aint disagreein with you Barney, but tell me, where are they all really goin…and for how long?
From what I see/hear, its harder to ‘qualify’ getting into other countries now (US, Oz etc)
Lots of us have hit London/UK in the past. But can those places really take many more of us?
Getting away sounds like the next option, but is it really?..apart from a few months pickin tulips or bummin down the east coast of Oz?
…apart from the success stories we read on a Sunday, not every kid secures that internship/blue chip sponsor…
Into deep time territory there OW
So the real crash hasn’t even started yet ?