House prices down 40% since 2007 peak CSO

A few nuggets from the CSO the link is below for those who want to read in full

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The monthly rate of decline increased to 1.7% in both February and March of this year, the largest monthly decrease since July 2009.

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This measures average prices for homes around the country and is based on information provided by a number of financial institutions.

The CSO index will be published monthly.

‘We believe that it does not make sense to continue to produce our own index when the CSO will be producing a similar index based on a more comprehensive set of information,’ a statement from Permanent TSB said today.

rte.ie/news/2011/0513/house-business.html

Sean Whelan on RTÉ’s One O’Clock News citing “most analysts”, confidently claimed the bottom will be a 50% fall from the peak and that’s expected at the end of this summers selling season.

Bring back George.

Blue Horseshoe

How’re they “confidently claiming” the bottom will be -50% when we’re nearly there already and the current rate of decline (as well as ICB predictions) indicates a c. 20% fall for 2011 and more beyond that?!

As far as I can gather, in South Dublin house prices are down c55%, apartments over 60%.

the 45% fall in Dublin is BS, where I live in Carpenterstown, a three bed semi two doors down sold for 610K in 2007, an Identical house one door up cannot sell at an asking price of 305K today.

the index lacks credibility & people will see through the lies quickly.

Most analysts like S&P? With their confident “31% so far”…

People need to stop measuring from the top down. The peak is meaningless.

Didin’t Morgan Kelly say 80% falls (or was it Constantine) anyway given the level of excrement we are sinking in is getting deeper by the day I think their estimates are more realistic and I agree with Jake76 the peak is meaningless, (but the fall could kill you) :-GC

The1bed apartments in the Gasworks which went on receivers sale recently at 155k (ground floor) INCLUDING a car parking space were 355k EX parking space at peak. Parking was an extra 40K, if you could even get it with a 1 bed.

That would agree nicely with your apartment estimate.

And yep spqr64, it was Morgan Kelly who said up to 80% falls.

It’s important to note that Kelly said you lose 80% of the price gains caused by the bubble - not 80% of the price.

Although the latter is looking more likely at this stage.

We must be really near to that 80% loss of gains…?

While that is true, however, many will use the metric, especially those “with an interest” in the property market.

IMHO, residential property in Ireland will ultimately stabilise at a level roughly where the price of the average house is 3 to 3.5 times the average wage. I believe that price level will represent somewhere between 70 and 80% from the peak. However, before we get to a market that can support such a level of pricing for property, we will need to see the following;

a) a stabilisation followed by growth in employment numbers
b) a stabilisation in net incomes
c) a stabilisation followed by growth in population
d) lenders in Ireland establishing a level of solvency, liquidity and apatite to support mortgage lending

Until then, declines will continue and if the economy remains moribund for a number of years then expect to hear news reports on this new index showing 60, 70, 80 and even 90% falls from the peak as emigration continues to draw significant numbers of the below 30 year old age bracket out of the country and its property market while those that remain face increased tax burdens to fund the rump of the banks.

Blue Horseshoe

+1

Down 50% form an insane stupid price, so does that make it a insane price with the stupid still to go?

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It’s very welcome to have an index based on real selling prices. For far too long vested interests have claimed that there has been huge falls in average house prices, that the bubble has already burst, and that now is a good time to buy. The typical strategy is to pick one or two extreme cases, and claim that if we can find one or two houses that have fallen a lot in price then it must follow that all houses have fallen by the same amount.

What this index shows is that it is total nonsense that average prices have fallen by 60% or more. In fact, the data shows that average house prices have fallen by a modest 40% nationwide. Even in Dublin, where the price rises have been particularly high, the falls to date have been only 45%. We’re still clearly in the midst of a house price bubble, now is not a good time to buy, and we can expect significant further falls.

BG.

M’lord, I enter into evidence, exhibit A - Co Kildare, where the living is easy - and it’s a quick commute to the capital

The accused had the temerity to publish this “article” only yesterday.

8DD

:sick:

XX

Without reading it, I wonder if they have taken into account people buying from plans in 07 actually drawing down later to pay the contracted price when markets had fallen.

Anyway, a mushed up glob of an index is feck all use where the site value bobs up and down from street to street.

Hey TUG, how’s the hunting going :smiley:

viewtopic.php?p=418520#p418520

The daft email alert is set and I maintain a crouching prepared to pounce position day long…

That said, the old dream home hasn’t shown up yet…

It’s difficult to get adequate cueing space for a full size pool table in living rooms at my price bracket… BD

Ideal solution

I am finding similar issues with space for grand pianos I must confess.