Charlie is a good guy. A bit subtle for the drones but there if you look.
House prices fall 19pc from peak? ( ESRI/Permo TSB Index )
I heard this on a news report last night when I was driving. They had on some guy (can’t remember who) who said that house prices would rise again soon and that anyone who was waiting around for them to drop further was more or less fooling themselves.
I guess he didn’t real the bould Niall of PTSB saying that the drops seem to be getting droppier…
That would be Country Tom or an Auctioneer who between them have predicted a whopping 24 out of 0 bottoming outs since February 2007
Interesting tidbit on the PTSB website:
A hint of sales collapsing?
Same sampling Problem in March and Feb . The last time they released semis was in the end Jan numbers which were over a week late coming out eventally in early Feb. I suppose the sample size bothered them a tad
There they said
assume same again …2.6% a month each month since . Semis were dropping way faster than the overall index
Semis are therefore falling 3x faster than the overall market if we extrapolate !!! I shudder to think of what that will do to the shoebox market in Ballivor !
What does that mean?
Does it mean the market didn’t peak in February 2007, it actually peaked in November 2006. And if it means that why don’t they just say it.
Does it mean that prices are not currently down 19pc, they were down 19pc in January and there’s 3 months worth of drops since then that aren’t included?
The most significant financial event in the history of the state and NOBODY knows the score. EVERYBODY is left guessing and imagining and extrapolating from opinion and wishful thinking.
It’s like 4 drunks speeding in a car at night, trying to reach consensus on where the turns in the road are, because they refuse to use the headlights.
How could there be a low sample size in the 3 bed semi sector and not in other categories? 3 bed’s are by far the largest category of semi-detached properties on the market.
Of the 1.5m occupied homes in the state on census day some 400k were semis of whatever size . 27% of the population/
cso.ie/census/census2006resu … 202006.pdf
Table 1 page 11
1.15m people lived in them out of 4.12m in the state .
Table 4 page 18
Of the 51’200 houses for sale on Daft.ie, 28% are semi-detached, and of these 60% are 3 beds.
3 bed semis make up 17% of the total number of houses for sale on Daft.ie.
57500 Houses for sale of which 57330 are in the Republic of Ireland The rest of Daft is Sites and BUNGALOWS ( 6000) and Duplexes ( 600) and Apartments ( 5500 )
Using This search .
The sum of all properties ( not sites) is 57330+6000+5500+600 = 69430
14100 of these RoI Houses are Semi Detached = 24.5% of all houses for sales other than bungalows and duplexes and 20% of all Properties for sale
Of the 14100 Semi Detached Houses for sale 8,500 Have 3 Bedrooms .
We are a bit underweight on semis for sale
The March 09 ESRI report summary included a editors note saying:
Given an average settlement period of about 3 months on Irish house contracts, they are saying that their data is about 3 months out of date. Some here might argue that it is closer to 3 years but it’s anyones guess really.
Yeah right, Irish house prices show no signs of dropping further…
And speaking of people fooling themselves, here’s a graph I made earlier:
Very nicely put.
I think all this points to suspended animation. It’s a stand-off with denial and fear battling each other within sellers. People still simply do not believe their €400k property is now struggling to attract €200k. It is so massive a perceived “loss” that people become paralysed by it.
I can envisage a bizarre situation lasting for 10 years whereby there is very little market activity, with almost all sales being by stressed sellers selling at realistic market-clearing prices, say the €200k above. Simultaneously, there will be a massive number of houses that *could *be on the market - that might normally go on and off a property market - but aren’t, because the owner still believes the house is worth €400k. Basically, I can see the Irish mentality testing the fundamental economic concept of the marginal price. Houses worth €200k and €400k at the same time.
That I would agree with, and in 20 years when inflation has brought house prices back to somewhere near peak levels, these same people will feel justified in waiting
I see where my maths went wrong. Duplexes and bungalows! It could drive you mad with the way people classify their properties… Why is a bungalow not a detached house? Is an ‘end of terrace’ not a semi-d? Are semi-d’s not ‘end of terrace’, albeit a short terrace? When’s a townhouse not just a, eh… town house? Anyway, thanks for the correct figures, 2pack.
Bungalow is a Connacht thing for detached , a bungalow is a bungalow and is generally detached . Having said that I can show you semi detached bungalows if you are down the wesht …but it is not nice .
Over 25% of Dafts ‘Bungalows’ are in the wesht even though only 10% of the population is .
Poncy EAs try to peddle Ordinary Decent Bungalows as 'Detached Residences ’ or some such but we normally don’t let them th’oul bastards
Banjobaters graph looks like Croagh Patrick from the east too , are you a Mayoman Banjobater ??
What the hell happened to Croagh Patrick between sepr 01 and March 02 ,seems somebody cut a dip in it.Fucking board of works again making more roads ill bet ya.
Gold ye says,ok that’s it were taking the sucker down to dead cat bounce level.Build intepretative center for the Catholic Church or drop in center for the bewildered.Jobs oxo.