House prices keep tumbling as buyers opt to wait and see


#11

Be it Dan McLoughlin, Pat McArdle or any other opinion maker one must read between the lines of any comments from employees of financial institutions.

From what I can see there are two markets out there for the new / nearly new (i.e. less than 5 years built) housing schemes.

  1. Outside of the cities, supply greatly exceeds demand and up to
    recently house prices were kept up by the combination of mortgage
    lenders vieing with each other to lend and this together with builders
    and estate agents spinning the line that the graph for house prices was
    going only one way and that was up.

    All has changed, and changed radically, buyers aware of the new and
    true realities have left the market, some for the short term but many
    for potentially a number of years for they will not now be under the
    pressure that ‘buy now or you will not be able to buy in 5 years time’

    Builders of many small schemes with units unsold are now
    bleeding to death, as the banks are cutting overdrafts to stem
    exposure, this combined with the dramatic fall in sales on the one
    hand and suppliers demaning payments the small town builders all
    over the county are also experiencing the new realities.

    The CSO figures last Summer calculated that 13% of the housing
    stock was lying idle, add to this that the majority of the units built
    since then remain unsold the senario is that wheither builders drop
    prices voluntary or are forced to by their bankers or alternatively the
    the liquidator is called in and does the necessary, prices are going
    to experience a steeper fall in many areas than what Pat McArdle
    says and this time next year the results for 2008 will bear this out.

    This is the reality unless Dan and Pat and those others who reside
    in the ivory towers of Bank headquarters have a new theory that
    disproves the iron law of supply and demand.


#12

Welcome aboard counciller.

For those of us who are curious can I ask a few questions?

are you a former member of Fianna Fail?

if you are what were the circumstances of your parting of the ways?

What’s your favourite colour

Manilla? brown? White? :wink:


#13

aw bugger off ewd :frowning:

The situation in Laois is replicated nationwide.

Dublin has a feasible commuter belt ( given its size) of 30 miles at most. This belt expanded into Northern Ireland at the top of the boom ( and into Laois) but has arguably contracted back stranding lots of speculative development in mid - outer Leinster and s Ulster with no buyers. Nor are there many on the horizon at present.

Michael is absolutely correct in what he says.

Its an awful pity all the same that Laois County Council in particular went on a mega rezoning frenzy (see here) a few years back given what was already built there. Laois was the architect of its own problems to a considerable degree.

Laois will have its ghost towns and ghost villages to manage for a long while yet. Unlike the N Shannon basin, however, Laois will not have to contemplate knocking a lot of this stock down over the next 5 years. It will eventually be brought into some use.

Any intelligent Councillor must prepare for all this .


#14

I’m sure counciller Moloney is well able to handle a little light hearted probing.

I am genuinely interested in the councillers former relationship with fianna fail and how it ended. I have no prior information on this other than what a quick google would bring up.


#15

I also believe that Councillor Moloney spotted the inevitable consequences of the speculative frenzy. For having some cop on before the fact…and becuase he is posting well argued opinion… I feel he deserves a fair hearing on this Forum just as you do ewd.

Now read this ewd willya :frowning: and give over!

archiseek.com/content/showthread.php?t=3733

Country Tom was conspicous by his absence from the debate and him a local TD at the time. Some surprise that eh !!! :frowning: The antics of the PDs in assisting the rezoning of every village in Laois may have helped lose him his seat !

also read this

politics.ie/viewtopic.php?t=7444


#16

ewd3 & 2Pack:
Backgound:
Grandfather and his brothers in Fianna Fail from the start in 1926. Grandfather, father and brother were Fianna Fail Councillors.

Oliver J. Flanagan ( who had been a member of the same Fianna Fail cumann) and who was the largest vote getter in the country from the 1940’s onwards was in the same local electoral area (Mountmellick area formely Tinnahinch area)

My brother John Moloney is a Fianna Fail TD since 1997.
I was elected at the last local elections on the Fianna Fail ticket having failed to win the nomination to take the seat vacated by
my brother at the ending of the duel mandate).

I had issues from our second council to do with rezoning and planning but also political differences with at least one of my former FF councillor’s making unattributed statements in the media vis-a-vis positions that I was taken on issues.

If you look at the website of the ‘Laois-Nationalist.ie’ you will be able to view my position regarding the County Dev Plan.
The most recent issue related to the Portarlington Local Area plan where the councillors rezoned a flood plain against all Gov
Agencies advise. I proposed a contary motion but there was no seconder.

I hope to have all relevent documentation and press cuttings pertaining to the fiasco that was the Laois County Development plan on a web site some time later in the year. Fianna Fail are actually in the minority on Laois CC and in fact it was a combination of FG (9)
PDs (1) SF (1) Lab (1) Indep ( 2) with the help of certain FF councillors that pushed through much of the rezoning.

As the saying goes ‘its an ill wind that blows no good’ and with the downturn much of what has been rezoned will not happen for
the forseeable future and by then hopefully changes will be implemented that makes much of the rezoning impossible or at least
make such developements financially imprudenent.

The record will show that I fought against what happened in Laois even though it would have been politically prudent to
keep quite.

My initial comments re the housing market were about the whole of the country outside of the cities.

mm


#17

Not all politicians are bad! :open_mouth:


#18

I have long expected things to pan out roughly so . Note my 2Band theory again.

askaboutmoney.com/showpost.p … stcount=16

The commuter belts were to shrink massively and leave the extended commuter belt up the creek, some of it for our lifetimes.

That would be Laois and Westmeath and Carlow and East Cavan around Dublin and around a smaller City like Galway that would be Loughrea and Tuam 20 miles out.

As for non commutable propositions like Longford and Leitrim and Roscommon and West Cavan, widescale demolition is the only way to deal with the overhang .


#19

Fair play to the good Councillor for sharing his opinions with us.

I find it very refreshing to find that there are still some Irish politicians out there that don’t seem to have their head firmly shoved up a builders backside.


#20

Is he a big fan of Eddie Hobbs? :wink:


#21

And if you want to plan anything you must …in my opinion…accept that 20% of Irish homes will be empty at the bottom of this downcycle …c 2011 when emigration has reduced the population to 4m again .

We will have about 1.9m homes by 2011. Of those 380k will be empty for most of the year. This is fucking insane of course :frowning: We will then start to demolish.

The current position, today, is that 330-350k are empty ( including holiday homes )

The government already knows this.

They asked and the ESB has told them and a Cabinet minister has confirmed to me that the government has asked for and gotten the figures…but the same cabinet minister would not tell me exactly or approximately what they were , bugger :frowning:

We all tipped around this issue a few months back , read this thread again

thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?t=1938

Has anyone asked the ESB for the number of homes with €10 a month or less in usage ( not standing charges) on average ???

Has anyone , more importantly , been REFUSED ???

Why would the ESB refuse to divulge the information, sure their only shareholder is Eamonn Ryan the Green !

I feel that maybe a councillor should ask for these figures , just about Laois though 8)


#22

This was a bit below the belt ewd, appreciate the fact that someone is sticking their head above the parapet here…

Civility should be extended to all members of the 'pin until they abuse that privilege…


#23

I’ll try again with a registered letter this time. I got no reply to my letter earlier this year.
esb.ie/main/contact_us/index.jsp

If anyone has any good information on who to contact to get this information maybe they might PM me. As 2pack says they may be more receptive to a councilor.


#24

I can ask a councillor too…


#25

The ESB has a PR Office, ask them.

Laois, actually 8) , is perfect. It has about the national average of empties.

See here , Laois 15.7% and State 15% in Census 2006

beyond2020.cso.ie/Census/TableVi … ortId=7308
**
I would think that the Laois housing stock (as in habitable homes connected to mains electricity) is now 29k units and that about 6k are empty because the electricity usage is too low for anyone to live there much .**

Thats below €20 a month usage, say. Near enough 20% empty by that measure.

I am sure that a councillor is entitled to ask for and receive such information from the ESB, I expect to be proven correct as well and **thats **the scary bit.

A bloke called Conor Mc Cabe (in his blog) has shown clearly that far too many of the new homes built since 2002 are empty AND THEY ARE IN AREAS OF HIGH DEMAND , he did not bother himself with Leitrim or Cavan or Roscommon where we tend to build tax sheltered ghost towns although he mentions Longford on the fringe of the Ghost Town belt.

This graph below is an analysis of homes constructed 2002 - 2006 ONLY .

I am not absolutely sure where Conor gets the figures so I cannot link them despite my wanting to but I feel he is right based on observation in my area.

The same carry on continued in the 20 months since that census .

Just imagine how much worse it is in areas of lesser demand :unamused:

Laois is somewhere 'in the middle ’ whatever that ‘middle’ is.

Only the ESB can tell us!


#26

Thanks to the councillor for coming on and giving his opinion and for answering a straight question without any fuss.

I Do entirely appreciate the post and the fact that as a politician he has publicly identified himself.

as for the joke … it was not below the belt…

Personally i thought my colour question was a bit of light hearted ribbing that anyone involved in a pub discussion would be able to handle. let alone a man used to the cut and thrust of local politics… someone would want to have a very thin skin to allow a joke like that bother them. It doesn’t seem to have bothered the councillor in the slightest…

far harsher jokes have been made about other posters with no comment

It is not my or councillor moloney’s fault that we have to be deeply suspiscous of the relationship between our politicians (particularly Fianna Fail) and the Developers. The history of such unsavoury relationships is on record and there is no harm in letting people know we aren’t blind or forgetting it.


#27

A politician that has left Fianna Fail automatically earns a little bit of my respect, although I suspect the good Cllr will agree that much like Hotel California, you can check out any time you want, but you can never leave.

I’m still on the mailing lists and I still get junk mail from my FF MEP in Oireactas envelopes (postage paid by you and me, thanks very much). Surely to goodness the Europeans have franking machines by now.

I once read that punching a Bishop gets you automatic excomunication, I wonder if punching Bertie has the same effect. Or perhaps punching a bishop was a euphemism.

-Rd


#28

You’re going straight to hell for that one!!! :smiling_imp:


#29

The ahem “economist” from from Sherry Fitz was on Radio 1 but I was busy so didn’t bother listening. I’m sure it will be on the website at some stage.
Bishop Punchers the lot of them.


#30

she was on Matt Cooper today as well to sum her up in one word was capitulation :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

though she didnt do so without a fight. i particularly liked her complete misreading of census statistics regarding the empties :slight_smile: