House prices to 'drop by 30pc as bubble bursts'

thepropertypin.com/forum/viewtop … =9633#9633

Well Folks - what do you think of the programme so far?

Dont think it’ll be winning the Brendan Burgess Balanced debate of the year award! :laughing:

“my holy fuck” is one of the texts i’ve gotten, from a friend who didn’t beleive what i’ve been trying to tell her…and shes an accountant in a bank…

i must admit, that it is very slick and well done, Aherne from UCG is certainly coming across as very credilbe.

think this will be the month that it starts to tip…esp with ecb in dublin in a few weeks and rate going up in june…

F**K me!!! - Jasus I thought we’re bad here - The VI’s must be going mental - I wouldn’t be surprised to see if there are complaints to RTE and we see a VI swat team blitzing the media tomorrow.

all pp will remember is those ppl at the end, and the size of the drops…

it shall be interesting to see what the vi’s say, loved mcardles comments on the “fundamentals”, but yet doesn’t tell us what these fundamentals are…

this will make for some interesting reading to watch them skirm out of this…

I think the Titanic just met its iceberg… Does this program qualify as a external shock?

As a footnote,

From todays news,

Euro moves towards all-time high against US dollar.

finfacts.com/irelandbusiness … 9780.shtml

I got texts from 2 mates, one said it was ‘grim viewing’. It was alot more hard hitting than I thought it would. Prof Fitzgerald was excellent, don’t think hos brother will be best pleased :laughing:

I was suprised by that as well, its no longer being treated as an if but a when. There was nothing there that you didnt know already but the general public may not be as familiar with the arguements.

But yes, i would agree with “holy fuck”, I didnt expect it to be so one sided

My goodness that was a stake through the heart of the bubble beast. The most chilling part (for the uninitiated) was the explanation of the domino effect on the economy, what will happen when we stop building houses we don’t need. Also of interest was the emphasis placed on the weakening dollar and its impact on the export sector. The look back at the UK bubble burst was very sobering as well. A pity this programme wasn’t made four years ago.

It’s quite amazing really. Nothing that hasn’t been posted here for the past 6 months or so, it’s just when you see it all pieced together it makes for some extremely disturbing viewing. An at times terrifying hour’s television.

This country truly is now 100% bitched, bolloxed and bewildered.

a falling dollar is going to have serious serious effects, its going to through the whole world balance out the window…

has anyone seen the s&p…see what it closed at…
falling dollar,
rising oil
peaking markets…

this is going to go one way only…ohh thank god for cold cash

Well said Folks - By the way everybody should check out the piece Green Bear posted in the Central Bank Forum over the weekend - the pieces of this particular puzzle are starting to fall into place way way too fast for me

Now where’s me passport…

A good point. Having the **facts ** presented with a explanation of the connections between the various variables and the risks associated with them has a hell of an impact. And the programme didn’t touch on the issue of overbuild and excess supply.

Thats exactly why I did the youtube videos, its one thing reading about price drops on a subversive website like the property pin :astonished:
lol

I got a text “you were right bout market crash was just watching prime time and they predicted what you predicted over 6 months ago”
:unamused:
well goddamn i predicted it over a year ago its why myself and the texter sold our house!

I for one was disappointed by the show - it failed to mention the hundreds of thousands of vacant unrented properties we have thus exposing just how speculative in nature this bubble is/was. And worst of all to top it all off - they never once mentioned the property pin :exclamation:

:open_mouth:

Four years ago it would have been dismissed out of hand as far fetched madness

Aye, I noticed that alright. McDowell made a side reference to “an overhang” but that was about it. THe whole domino analysis was excellent.

Fair play to you, Richard Curran, and fair play to RTE for having the magairlí to show something so brutally honest. This was true public service broadcasting tonight.

It is a real pity it wasn’t made 3/4 years ago - could have saved a lot of hardship. However, I don’t agree that it will take more than 2 years to achieve a 30% fall - we’ll have this before Xmas 2008 and further falls after this.

para-phrasing, but mcdowell stuck the boot in, placing blame with the government as “they just don’t do it well”…terrible, 4 bacon reports that might have stopped this before it went way over board…

ahhh…well,it’s got to be done one time or another…the crash has to come some time, might as well be now, get it over with…

s&p to bomb before the end of the month…badly down…

The fact that a programme like that; which questions a widely and deeply held belief about the fundamental soundness of our economy and hence our nation, can be broadcast is a good thing. Can you imagine the BBC producing a programme that examined their own bubble in a similar fashion ?

The wife just told me weren’t we lucky we didn’t buy. Jesus that was a tough few years fighting the rental battle.

Fuck RTE pushed the fear out tonight. They also perhaps subliminally pushed the notion of VI’s being full of shite. Pat M should have kept his head down like Dan and Austin.

S andP down? Thought it was up big on the day?

The Bacon reports was an interesting one as it is usually not mentioned. The fact this is no longer David Mcwilliams who is now laughed at because he warned of this years ago, but a range of economists shows the differnce in the space of a few months. The morketing guy from Irish Permanent and his 5% a year shite and the difference with the opnion of a professor straight after. I think the fact that this is on RTE1 with such a negative slant will be hard for people to ignore.

I agree that the point made on the effects to the economy of a fall in construction was well made. A lot of people I talk to just think oh well so what, I dont want to sell so it wont effect me. I dont think that is widely understood.

There is a road beside my house with three for sale, all very near to each other, it is becoming very obvious and it is getting to the point that people can no longer ignore what is happening.