House prices to 'drop by 30pc as bubble bursts'

We shall await with interest the inevitable chorus of “unduly pessimistic” and accusations of “talking down the market” over the coming days.

Wonder who’ll stick their head above the trenches first …

Blue Horseshoe

Cue rapid competing price drops and a race to the exit

wonder will ppl actually notice things like the various commenteres titles.

mcmuppet…not docorate and works for a vi
o’grady…marketing and works for vi

mcdowell…dr…economist and lecturer, no vi.
ahearne, dr…“”"
fitzgearld…professor…
kelly…professor…

the list is quite impartial and vaslty more qualified on the bear side, the factualy based side.

Could that programme be described as negative?, didn’t it present the facts? The facts might reflect badly on the reality before us, but them’s the facts folks.

The facts are in themselves negative. It would be impossible to portray the current debacle in a positive light without being totally dishonest.

Japan?-60%
NL?-50%
Fin?-46%
UK?-35%
ROI?-ah just the 30% will do us thanks :unamused:

I think there is another dimension that has not really been considered, If the Irish crash plays out its worst case scenario then Ireland may lead the disintegration of the €, since it will be impossible to stay within the monetary guidelines without significant sacrifices. We are not likely to be alone as Spain and Italy join us.

Like someone already said, people here and elsewhere have being saying this since last year.

The first signs of things going amiss came during the Summer of last year. People on the infamous AAM thread noticed the definite slow down in house prices, properties not selling, auctions not getting reserves met, etc.

I thought their predictions were awful too. Places like Roscommon, Leitrim, Cavan and Mayo are going to get absolutely gubbed. I could see 50% wiped off the value of housing there.

Yer bog standard, 3 bedroomed semi-d inside the M50 should be fairly well insulated from huge losses. There’s always going to be a big demand for them.

The music was gas… Real dramatic foreboding stuff…

I thought it pulled it’s punches in places but it’s an amazing turnabout from the situation we were in 12 months ago, hell six months ago in terms of acceptable spin.

The weird one was in there suggested timeline of a crash, they neglected to point out that the massive build up of inventory has already occurred but that one was only one of a few omissions…

Thought it pulled a few of it’s punches, and was arguably 3-4 months behind the debate here for instance.

Public sentiment played a huge part on the way up and is very fickle. The very fact that the public have to accept that bricks and mortar doesn’t ‘always only go up’ will come as a genuine shock to public sentiment and cause a downward spiral way in it’s own right well before the US dollar situation in the program plays out.

Richard Curran and Prof. Aherne were on newstalk this morning previewing the program. Of course Geoff ‘friar’? Tucker of HOK or someone like that, actually emailed the show at the end to say this was all negative pessimistic stuff and there’s never been a better time to buy, these guys have been proved wrong in the past etc etc.

Expect a raft of VIs to be out and about early tommorow to counter the program, in case it gathers it’s own legs along the lines of Mr. Hobbs Rip off Republic a few years ago.

The sentimement over on www.theoildrum.com has got very bearish recently regarding peak oil and world oil prices.There is growing evidence that world oil production peaked in may 2005 :frowning: and if this is the case the consequences will be truly catostrophic not only for ireland but the world in general.An Irish property crash could be the least of our worries.The fact that Brent crude prices have surpassed US light sweet is indeed very worrying.What this basically means is that world oil production is in decline at a time when world oil demand is racing ahead leading to higher oil prices especially if the supply is disrupted for any slight reason at all e.g. hurricane season etc.
Ireland of course is a complete sitting duck at the moment and all the planned road building will not be needed if we cannot afford the expensive oil.We should be investing in public transport not roads.Vancouver recently scrapped the building of a major motorway because of this and i also suspect this is the real reason why Bush called for a major cut back in oil usage and has nothing to do with global warming.

en.rian.ru/business/20070416/63717518.html
Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006
Bleak Energy Outlook: Decline and Fall of Major Reserve Energy Sources
The model of Walter Youngquist and Richard Duncan continues to suggest that 2007 will be the peak for oil production.8 Their model marks this date as the peak of all oil production. In this model, peak is determined by conventional oil, nonconventional sources only serve to help broaden the downward slope somewhat
Prices will continue to fluctuate for the time being; always trending upward, however. Every rumor of a disruption will likely send shockwaves through the market. We expect that when gasoline prices in the US reach $5/gallon and stay there for more than a month, the economy will unravel. At that price, people in the US will not be able to go to work or do their grocery shopping.
In the latest issue of The Mountain Sentinel, we look at the decline of Mexico Cantarell field, once the second most productive field in the world. We also look at Saudi Arabia’s declining production.9 The collapse of Cantarell will have enormous consequences for Mexico and the US. The Decline of Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar will have consequences for the entire world. As we have stated before, the world’s oil production hangs on the fate of a handful of aging super-giant fields. And those fields are showing signs of their age.
Scary stuff! :cry:

I think the dollar angle is over-played. The property market here is already crashing and therefore it will not need the dollar to plumet to 1.50 to achieve this. Sure, a falling dollar will assist - but make no mistake about it this ‘ponzi’ scheme needs no massive greenback slide!

His voice was quivering when he mentioned “fundamentals”.

The most elastic component of the touted “fundamentals” is demand. Richard Curran eluded to this at the “what if” scenario. Confidence, confidence and confidence.

On Newstalk now, Prof Fitzgerald pulling back a bitI would have thought.but love this line
“10 or 15% down turn would help our competitiveness”
Also the tragedy in Vriginia wiped this off the front page has the story legs

i thought the show was over cooked a bit on production (i.e. music et) but maybe that was what was needed…i also think it pulled a few punches on supply and that 30% is wholly optomistic. I do however find it made a strong impact…from my experience i have been telling people over the last year (to not much avail) but suddenly after it was presented in a show like that its a whole different ball game…this is just another step on the descent…

I thought one of the most interesting - and telling - aspect was the fact that some EAs have actually sold their businesses: I think HOK to Saville is one I remember? That surprised me as I never heard of this exodus of EAs from the market - must have been kept very hush hush. Also banks have sold-and-leaseback their own properties, effectively getting out of the market also.

Listening to Tubridy this morning - He had George Lee on commenting on last nights programme - very interesting to hear that all the banks had warned off their employees from participating in the programme - one would suspect that many EAs did the same - they may rue that decision in the future.

A few reflections on last nights programme after the initial shock of seeing RTE take on the most sacred cow in existence in the country at the moment.

It was good to see a programme that showed how we have placed all our eggs in very few baskets - basically Property and the US economy. As I have noted on this site the world economy is changing and we are waking up quite late to the impact of Asia - unfortunately mostly to negative - ie job losses - not to the positive - imagine if we had diverted even a small percentage of the billions we have squandered on bricks and mortar in our own backyard to investing in the Asian economies and societies ( not that we have neglected it completely).

the Euro , unfortunately , will become the scapegoat when the blame game finally gets going - which is unfortunate , the stable currency and low interest rates that arrived with the adoption of the euro should have been a springboard to ramping up the Celtic tiger - however we decided we’d done the hard work and went apeshit spending on property and consumer goods. The Gov can always decide to influence how we spend our money and influence where we invest our money - just that the Gov of the time was in tune with the people and decided to party and to hell with tomorrow - the euro is here to stay - it would make absolutely no sense to leave now - we are not powerless in regard to this - its just we’ll have to plan better in a strategic sense and make our taxation and incentive system work better - interest rates will not fluctuate massively (I seriously cannot see it go above 8% ever - Europe will just be too stable and too sensible - the Us on the other hand…) - it just means we will no longer have the easy option of devaluation to get out of mistakes and complacency.