How housing slumps end


A very interesting piece & comments over on the site about housing bubbles. … lumps-end/


Thanks Kev!


I could be wrong but I expect it will overshoot i.e. drop rapidly and then recover rapidly although to a lower base rather than continue dropping and then stabilize at their long term value.


Isn’t it funny how the inverse of a boom is called a slump? Even though the curve for a slump is usually much more dramatic than that of a boom.


Does anyone want to translate that research report? It is appallingly and unnecessarily incomprehensible. I always get suspicious when an article’s main point and conclusions are hidden behind statistics - it often means that the writers aren’t confident in their conclusions so they try to protect themselves using complication and numbers.


To be honest, when I got to their list of variables and saw that they think level or housing stock, immigration / emigration / migration, tax incentives or pre-boom price levels can be ignored I didn’t read any further.