If a recession begins, job losses, companies no longer hiring, etc.
How long do people thing it takes for the start of a recession to start affecting residential house prices?
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I had a look at latest National Accounts figures for Personal Consumption of Goods and Services
Below we see 2 falls after a small increase. Obviously need more quarterly data but it may show a recession is on the way for real people, if when our GDP continues to be skewed by dominance of large enterprises
| Statistic | Quarter | Sector | UNIT | VALUE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modified Total Domestic Demand and Components of Modified Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation at Constant Market Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) | 2021Q2 | Personal Expenditure on Consumer Goods and Services | Euro Million | 27044 | |
| Modified Total Domestic Demand and Components of Modified Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation at Constant Market Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) | 2021Q3 | Personal Expenditure on Consumer Goods and Services | Euro Million | 27229 | 0.7% |
| Modified Total Domestic Demand and Components of Modified Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation at Constant Market Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) | 2021Q4 | Personal Expenditure on Consumer Goods and Services | Euro Million | 27082 | -0.5% |
| Modified Total Domestic Demand and Components of Modified Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation at Constant Market Prices (Seasonally Adjusted) | 2022Q1 | Personal Expenditure on Consumer Goods and Services | Euro Million | 26890 | -0.7% |
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I know that it says âConstant Market Prices (Seasonally Adjusted).â
Do you know if this accounts for price inflation?
This Robot Already Owns Everything (And itâs just getting started) : Blackrock Aladdin
You could also factor in here the Blackrockâs Aladdin machine (Asset Liability and Debt and Derivative Investment Network) & Efront a data harvesting private equity and real estate machine. These monopoly companies didnât invest in real esate for nothing & how will this affect house prices in the coming recession?
State no longer Bank of Irelandâs biggest shareholder
State no longer Bank of Ireland's biggest shareholder.
I had a look and canât see any mention of price inflation adjustment
Prepare
Hobbsâ warning about a recession comes as one of the worldâs wealthiest business leaders and potential Twitter owner, Elon Musk, also expressed concern about the economy. Meanwhile, the British Office for National Statistics (ONS) published new figures that reignited fears the UK is heading for a recession.
In an interview with The Irish Mirror, Hobbs said that Ireland will enter an economic downturn within a matter of months as he predicted imminent job losses and business closures. He said that there is a âcomplete suspension of realityâ in Irish public life at present, and accused Irish political leaders of failing to be honest with themselves or the Irish public on the prospects for the economy.
âWe will likely be in recession by early Autumn, but definitely by Winter. All the signs are there. Right now, we are in a vortex, on the way to recessionâ, Hobbs said.
âWeâre looking at the economy contracting, job losses, business closures. Itâs a f**king firestorm,â he added.
âŚHobbs believes that despite the financial hardship Ireland endured in the aftermath of the Celtic Tiger, the situation we are facing is worse than it has ever been before.
âŚWhile he predicted that a recession will follow, he insisted that house prices wonât crash as they did in the last recession of 2008.
Yep, a complete disconnect with public policy makers & reality
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Why wouldnât house prices decline during a massive recession?
Because of institutional investors using property as a hedge ?
Or something else?
Surely a significant element of current price inflation is expectation as to future values? As soon as prices go into reverse that disappears.
Recession and depression are TEMPORARY. What we are facing and whatâs being prepared will be permanent.