Phoenix editorial says there’ll be a heave before the end of the summer and Lenihan’s health will decide the new leader. If Lenihan gets a decent prognosis, he’ll be the new leader. If he doesn’t, he’ll be the kingmaker instead.
It would make sense for FF to dump Cowen now. They are still going to take a pasting in the next election but using Cowen (and Bert) as scapegoats will allow them to minimise the damage and let them retain more seats than they would under Cowen.
FF will be crucified at the next election, so I don’t believe any *decent *contender will want the role prior to the next GE.
4 Scenarios :
Backbench TD in safe seat will keep their head down and try and ride out the storm.
TD, who is also leadership material, in safe seat will keep their head down and try and ride out the storm.
Backbench TD in unsafe seat will be trying anything to get re-elected.
TD, who is also leadership material, in unsafe seat will be trying anything to get re-elected.
Consequently, I see Cowen being threatened by unsafe seat holders.
Priority will be given to anyone from this batch who is in anyway leadership material.
Backbench TDs from unsafe seats will support anyone to try and change their predicament.
TDs, who are also leadership material, will be egged on and supported by all unsafe seat holders to try and oust Cowen.
Don’t know which FFers fall into the ‘TD who is also leadership material in unsafe seat’ catagory, but my bet is they are the ones to watch.
Cowen won’t be going anywhere… he is going to hang onto his chance for as long as he can coz post the next election he’ll be jacking in politics I reckon. Unless he elects to do a Bertie on it and sit around doing nothing and charging us for it… that and the bar in the Dail is subsidized
All we are seeing from the back benches is guff… trying to appease the folks at home whom they will now have to put up with for over 2 months hols. FF still have a very strong core vote and with the publics apathy to politics only increasing, there is a good chance they won’t get the hammering people suspect at the next elections.
I don’t know about that.
FF are looking at a potential ELE if they stick with Cowen.
Dumping him and heaping all the blame on him (and Bert) would probably allow them to skip some of the blame, especially if key indicators like unemployment don’t get any worse in the meantime.
Much safer to change after the GE, that way Cowen can absorb all the nastiness of the years that went before and New Zanu FF can move on with a clean slate to heckle egregiously at the Government whilst standing over none of the policies that they introduced…
There’s no extinction event, they still have 25% of the electorate no matter what happens… Especially outside the Pale…
Brian Lenihan will not be taking over as Taoiseach. Apart from saying that, I’ve given up trying to second guess the time, place or precise reason for the end of this Government. I wouldn’t be suprised if it was next week, or if it lasted to the end of the full term.
If Lenihan recovers he will succeed whoever is FF leader at that time.
I disagree with your point that ‘nobody is going to make a move until Lenihan is out of the picture’, as many FF TDs in unsafe seats do not have the luxury of waiting.
Tis less than 2 years to an election and BL is in no state at all to take over. Pessimistic rumours abound for him. The media will not let go of this bone all summer long, there’s now no FG own goals to take the attention away, suggesting a good proper heave ho by October.
Mind you I can’t believe Clowen survived last autumn.