How long to wait until I buy a house in Cavan?

The Irish Property Bubble (2006) Sell, Buy or Rent?
#1

I moved to Cavan last month after selling my house in Dublin. Myself and my partner are renting a 4 bedroom detached house for half the price of what our mortgage payments were so we are very happy with that. House is lovely and in a great area. Its only 15 minutes on the bike from the house to my job in Cavan town.

Im not from Cavan but my partner is and every other day he has people (mainly relatives) telling him that such a house is only this price and such a house is only that price and why dont we put an offer in. Now granted the prices are very cheap when compared to Dublin (e.g 4 bedroom semi d for 198,000) but I keep saying that we should wait for a year at least before we even start looking at houses as I am very certain that prices will continue to fall.

Im very happy to let the money we got from the mortgage sale (45,000) sit in the bank for a year or so gaining interest and then in a year or so when we find a really nice house that we both like and plan to live in for a long long tme so if there anybody on here from Cavan that can give me a true picture of the sales market here. Im am talking mainly about houses in a 5-10 mile radius of Cavan Town.

Thanks

#2

As long as prices aren’t rising,then whats the hurry ?

#3

I would suggest that you rent in the area you intend to live for at 9- 12 months, if you are not from the area then you will need to get to know it better ( traffic, schools, shops, flood risk, Anti-social behaviour, rat-runs, etc) . This will give you somef time to wait for the market to settle down and will deflect the “now is a great time to buy” people with a legitimate excuse.

#4

There is a key message in this alone. Which is that renting is currently significantly cheaper than mortgage cost.
The other message here is that while house prices continue to fall then you save due to avoidance of likely negative equity impact on your house value.

What I see here is the VI speak coming from your partners relatives.
In Ireland about 70% of the population are part of the VI classes (i.e. either existing mortgage holders who would like that prices would keep going up, bankers, government politicians, government employees (who fed off the madness that has been the property binge in this country during the last 10 years), estate agents, etc.
When someone is giving you advice, it may be appropriate to ask yourself if they have a vested interest in the property game themselves.
I really like the “come join us” message which endeavours to call more and more of the yet unmarked into the fold.
youtube.com/watch?v=VREbKlzJ4eQ

Don’t be fooled.
There’s a massive and widespread addiction to this credit fuelled property mania that started back in 1995 and grew for 12 years on the trot (albeit with a temporary blip in 201).
Addicts are oftentimes the biggest pushers of the drug that they themselves are hooked on.
Now, I could be totally wrong here so no offence intended against any of you, your partner or your partners relatives but I’m simply wishing to caution against the widespread delusion that exists in Irish societ with property, ala “The Field”. “This is what we’d be without the land boy”, quotes Richard Harris/The Bull McCabe as he blows the parachutes from a dandelion head. i.e. you can’t be nothing in Ireland unless you’re a land owner…
youtube.com/watch?v=qF3kX38iKtw

That’s the way to do it.
Stick to your guns. Keep up the good fight. You’re winning already and gaining more and more value by the day.
Put it this way. If even following the official government propoganda on property prices, i.e. the ESRI Permanent TSB report, and if property values continue to fall at present rates then during the next year you will save approximately 20,000 Euros by not buying.
Your certainty that house prices will fall is currently entirely supported by all indicators.
Two great places to look are

treesdontgrowtothesky.com/

and

irishpropertywatch.com/sales … =Co.+Cavan

What an absolutely wonderful plan. During the coming year at 5% gross less 20% DIRT tax is a net gain of 4%, amounting to approximately 1800 Euros.

Total savings for the year of approixmately 22,000 Euros by not buying.

#5

In fact, it’s double that over the life of the mortgage. According to daltonr’s estimates, you pay €2 for every €1 you borrow over 25 years (more with a longer mortgage).

So, you are saving 42k by not buying for a year if house price declines in Cavan only match the ESRI’s estimate for average declines across the country.

In this situation you have to ask you OH: “does Cavan feel lucky. Well, does it punk*?”

*Maybe leave out the ‘punk’ bit in the interests of marital harmony.

#6

I’m assuming that the rent is 50% of what you were paying in Dublin. How does it compare to the cost of a mortgage in Cavan?

Secondly, the only reason I’d even consider discussing a possible purchase is if you had seen a house you particularly liked. Else, you’re in the realm of buying for the sake of buying.

I am not sure when prices in Cavan will make it worth your while because I don’t know what premium you put on ownership over lack of security of rental tenure. I do know that for a lot of people it is not a straightforward financial equation; but other practical considerations come into play. So I can’t strictly speaking, answer your question.

It also needs to be borne in mind that laddermania is less of an issue outside the cities, and outside Dublin in particular because it is entirely possible to buy a very decent house as your first home instead of the starter home nonsense which was peddled to compel people to buy dives of small ill designed apartments.

Buying because other people are pressuring you to do so is bad. If necessary, I’d look at a few houses, highlight some good reasons not to buy them and leave it another 6 months, rinse, repeat. People will eventually leave you alone.

It worked for me and thanks to that I am not now 50KE in negeq on a small apartment in noCoDub

#7

In regard to the “If necessary” part, I wouldn’t even bother with looking at houses here or there, unless you find it particularly enjoyable and some of an entertainment (which I do especially when I offer typically 40% below the current crazy asking prices down here and then with pen and paper write down the response of the auctioneer/estate agent while they watch"), or an educational value of how to learn to control your own mind while not being affected by the VI speak.
Instead I highly recommend the “Nod and Smile” response.
VI says “You should buy now, prices of such and such a house is low”
VI says “Blah, blah, blah, blah” which when loosely tranlated means that you should buy now at these rediculously high prices.
You, say nothing, but Nod and Smile
Takes a bit of practice but after a while it becomes sort of relaxing and calming, like some yoga on the move.

In regard to the “People will leave you alone”. I certainly don’t advise or think that this is what you are looking for.
I’ve been personally affected on a number of occasions by not having friends or relatives in an area and I didn’t enjoy it. The people have their own notions about the meaning of the value of property. It’s not necessary for you to change that notion. If they wish to debate with you then by all means but if they speak so as to advise or direct you without reason, then I’d simply adopt the Node and Smile response. It doesn’t hurt them or you, and it keeps you in good neighourbly and familiy association with your new community.

#8

Dude

There are no more that 20000 houses in Cavan of which 3000 are for sale

daftwatch.atspace.com/daftcounty_25.html

#9

I meant “people will eventually leave you alone about buying property when you are not ready in yourself to do so”.

#10

There are parts of West Cavan , packed with Ghost Estates , where you will be able to buy a modern semi for €45k in a few years time.

Draw a line from Gowna to Belturbet

Qualifying rural areas of Cavan

The District Electoral Divisions of Arvagh, Springfield, Killashandra, Milltown,
Carrafin, Grilly, Kilconny, Belturbet Urban, Ardue, Carn, Bilberry, Diamond,
Doogary, Lissanover, Ballymagauran, Ballyconnell, Bawnboy, Templeport,
Benbrack, Pedara Vohers, Tircahan, Swanlinbar, Kinawley, Derrynananta,
Dunmakeever, Dowra, Derrylahan, Tuam, Killinagh, Eskey, Teebane, Scrabby,
Loughdawan, Bruce Hall, Drumcarban, Corr, Crossdoney, and Killykeen.

#11

Are you really suggesting that it’s a valuable use of time to view and make bogus offers for your personal enjoyment? If that is really the case, it seems like a pretty distasteful pastime you have. There are plenty of genuinely distressed sellers out there in bad situations, not every one of them is an evil VI. No need to revel in that distress.

#12

Candidates to host the next Shithole Olympics? Some stiff competition there.

#13

I agree with Jost about bogus offer, just wait and watch and wait !!!

#14

FFS, I said nothing about making offers. You can go and look at a house if it appeals to you on any level but if you really don’t want to buy you will always find a reason not to do so. Even when I’ve been interested in buying property three and four years ago, just because I went and looked at something that looked palatable on myhome.ie doesn’t automatically imply that I also made an offer. i do not condone making empty offers, but if you are in the market for a house you can go look. You are not then compelled to offer.

OP is interested in buying, he’s just also interested at buying at the point of maximum financial opportunity. He is looking for ways to identify this in his local market. As his local market is not Dublin, different rules are going to apply there. This tends to be forgotten by Dublin centric posters.

There’s a difference between spending 250K on a 3 bedroomed dormer bungalow down the country that you may never want to move out of if you have a reasonably secure job like teaching, and spending 345K on a two bedroomed apartment somewhere an hour from Dublin when you work in Dublin, will have to trade up if you want a garden. In Cavan, they will get far more for their money. Far more. But at a time of their choosing.

If the OP sees house he likes I’d go and see them. He doens’t then HAVE to make an offer or HAVE to buy them just because he want and looked at them. He might want to but he doesn’t have to. And I guarantee that a few conversations along the lines of “I went and looked at such and such a house today, it’s nice but apparently there are issues with the group water supply there/access to recycling facilities/it needs a new kitchen/bathroom” will see people gradually saying things like “if it isnot the right one, it’s not the right one”.

#15

No, I am not.
But to explain further. In my personal experience during the last 5 months I have placed genuine real offers on multiple properties down here in Tralee. Here are a few examples, 2 of which were enjoyable to me.

  1. The first property was guided at 200,000. I made an early enquiry and was told that there was an offer of 170,000. I offered 175,000. This was a private treaty sale. I eventually pulled out at a price in the region of 225,000. I really liked the place but just couldn’t justify the cost versus my personal income.

  2. The second property was guided at 395,000. I examined the property in detail, which I was informed by the auctioneer had “development potential”. I checked the planning history on the property and found that a site on that property had previously been refused permission, which had not been declared to me by the auctioneer. I put in a serious offer of 230,000. This remained the only offer on the place for about 6 weeks. I was told a couple of weeks after that than an offer of 400,000 had been received by the auctioneer. I informed the auctioneer that I was not interested in that price and that he should go ahead with the sale. About 3 weeks passed and then I was called back by the auctioneer who left a voicemail to tell me that the sale had fallen through. I did not call back.

  3. Another place about 16 miles from Tralee was offered at 180,000. I offered 90,000. I was told that I would be called back by the auctioneer with further developments. I have as yet received no call back.

But here is where there is enjoyment. I do enjoy watching the auctioneers react, either as if insulted, either as if I’m crazy, either as if I’m joking etc. They seem to have it into their heads as much as so many others who are VIs in this industry that I must offer within 10% of their asking prices.
Currently I will not make these types of unrealistic offers. I use a two part valuation system which I’m not going into here but it currently suggest to me that most of the properties that are on the market still have a further 30-40% fall (in nominal terms) to go before they become to a realistic value.

To be clear, what I’m suggesting is that, if the OP does like a place then, he/she should go ahead and depending on what the value that she/he is believing to be appropriate to the place, in my personal case generally 40% below asking (though not always could be up to 90% or 10% lower, depends on the other factors of the particular property and initial asking price) then go ahead and make that offer.
If it works then you’ve ended up with a house at a value that you were prepared to pay and that is probably a good place to be against future price drops.
If not, then enjoy the ride and observe the reaction of the auctioneers. Some of the reactions are comical and I sometimes burst out laughing in their face with their totally non-professional responses. e.g. for the place where I offered 230,000, I was informed by the auctioneer that he would not tell the vendor of my offer! He told me that he would “put it under his hat”…
There is good genuine value from this in another way too.
If gives one a chance to see how the auctioneer treats the buyer in the negotiation. At the very least, I expect my name, phone number and offer to be recorded by the auctioneer and that my offer is communicated to the vendor.
If not then it’s all good and fair entertainment. And from the experiences that I’ve had so far probably better value than a couple of pints in the pub.

I think other statements above explain that I’m not doing this for fun but that I am enjoying the ride.
What’s distasteful really is that both the EAs are not willing to at least record and pass my offer to the seller. I’ve made good decent offers which have not been passed on because they were considered to be too low by the auctioneers.

Yes, there are genuinely distresed selles out there in bad situations.
I have limited feelings for them however as most of them were adults who signed themselves up for this.

Again, briefly. I am not reveling in the distress.
I am making genuine real offers.
But instead of becoming distressed, or by making an higher offer to satisfy the EAs or vendors, I do enjoy myself as I’m entitled to, when I see their outrageous reactionary behaviours to when I make a good fair offer for what they are selling.
I didn’t cause the distress of these EAs or vendors, and I’m not responsible for keeping them happy now especially when faced by unprofessional actions of many EAs (though not all) that I encounter.

Edited to correct quotation mistake…

#16

I believe Cavan will see some of the the gratest percentage falls of all the counties as the council allowed the unrestricted devolopment of individual properties,whereas many councils restricted development of new properties to zoned land in towns and villages to prevent “bungalow blight”,many other councils folowed the same policy.Many councils that previously allowed uncontrolled development moved to the zoned policy towards the end of the bubble but someone correct me if I am wrong,Cavan never changed. If you look at Daft,there does seem to be a huge preponderance of McMansion type 4/5/6 bed detached “executive” properties,so if that is what you are after,keep your eye on Cavan!

#17

Thanks everybody for the replies.

I am now more determined than ever to wait for a year or so before buying again. Im only living in Cavan for a little while so I definatly need more time to get a feel for the area and where the best places are to live. Though as I said in my original post my partner is from Cavan so that helps in knowing what areas to pick. We lived in a really bad part of Dublin 15 for a number of years so definatly dont want to move into an area like that again.

We are very lucky in that we have no kids, both working in the Civil Service (we decentralised to Cavan) so we have time on our sides and I am determined to sit it out and wait until that perfect house comes about. Our rent is only 800 a month for a 4 bedroom detached house and is only a 30 minute walk from Cavan town (or 5 minute drive if I am lazy) so I know we would be mad to start looking to buy at the moment.

When I can find a house where the mortgage is the same amount as our rent (hopefully that is possible in time) then will be the time to look to buy imo.

Thanks again.

#18

another plus to renting is figuring out how close to your in-laws will you want to live in the long run. i know a few people who jumped in too quick and now regret not having a bit of a distance from well meaning but intrusive relatives.
best of luck