How many new builds in Dublin to affect prices/rents?


#1

How many units in Dublin to change prices/rents?

  • Less than 2000
  • 5000
  • 10000
  • 20000
  • 40000
  • More than 40000

0 voters

This is just a thought based on a conversation I had with a tradesman who was round at the mansion a couple of weeks ago. In the last boom he expanded with a couple of East European lads and started to do work on office buildings - he downsized after the boom (with quite a few people owing him money apparently). He started the office contracts up again when things took off but he said the margins were really tight this time around so he hunted around and now has a pretty lucrative contract with an apartment builder doing higher value work. He said he reckons there are around 800 apartments coming on stream in D2,4 and 6 this year. He reckoned that there will be twice as many houses and apartments built in Dublin this year as compared to last year - I asked how many he thought were built last year and he said around 2000 so that would suggest 4000 this year.

I was curious so looked to see how many new sales there were in Dublin last year- from the PPR there were 3993 new houses in the 17674 houses sold in Dublin last year - that’s 22.6% of sales. The previous year there were 2473 new houses in the 15719 sold the previous year - 15.7%. That kind of fits with the view that there is more new housing being built (and sold). The most interesting thing was that the number of second hand sales barely shifted over the two years - 13246 in 2016 and 13681 in 2017 (a 1% increase) - almost all of the increase in sales between 2016 and 2017 (which rose by 12% overall) was in new sales.

Looking around I can see the tradesmans apartment figures make sense. Between Marianella, Lansdowne Place(?) and the blocks in the docks I can see 500 in D2,4,6 pretty much straight away that are all claiming to be on the market (or are already on the market) this year. If he’s right about doubling then that would suggest 8000 coming on this year - if he’s only right about the number (i.e. 4000 - twice his 2000 estimate for 2016) it would mean the same as last year.

So far this year there have been 2517 sales and 532 have been new dwellings - roughly 21% so the trend is pretty similar. It looks like January and February will be higher than last year - though not by much - too early to say for March.

There are also large numbers of student accomodation blocks being built as well.

So my question is - how many new residential units would have to come on the market to affect prices and /or rents?


#2

The other question, irrespective of the number of builds, is what impact REITS will have on the market, supply, price etc … And that may be impossible to quantify.


#3

Can’t answer the question but I was out and about in South Dublin earlier today and everywhere I drove - there were new-builds under construction. Some are infill - like that development of fifty or so houses on the N11 just after Dunnes in Cornelscourt. Others are larger in scale - those apartments opposite Tesco’s on the old Dun Laoghaire golf club. There seems to be several developments on the Glenamuck Road in Carrickmines as well as on Ballyogan Rd.

Plenty of choice in the area in terms of new builds - and that’s before even a single house has been built in Cherrywood.

When was the last time there were new houses in Killiney? There are now several schemes - on Ballinclea Rd and further up towards Killiney Castle. Not cheap of course but seem to be selling.

In addition, I note in my strolls around the place that there are a lot of “side garden” developments. At least four under way in my own estate.


#4

According to the just-published National Planning Framework,

That sounds a very conservative estimate but it’s probably the most we’ll get.
There’s been very little construction in Dublin since the bust. And social housing construction is abysmal

cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … cp1hii/od/

Whatever else, don’t expect construction in Dublin to push prices down or to solve the homelessness crisis.