How much will GDP fall in second quarter?

I heard on RTE this morning that the GDP figures for the second quarter are due out on Friday. It seems pretty certain that they will show a fall compared with the first quarter. Any predictions? I’ll go for a fall of minus 1.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter. If there is a fall, will this confirm there is definitely a recession? Anyone know when the next esri quarterly forecast is out? Its usually leaked on the Pin. I thought it would be out by now, but haven’t heard of it.

-2.1

They are actually due out Thursday. Davy’s are of the opinion that the figures will show Q2 growth due to the good export figures (bulk chemicals in the main). However, they do reckon that H2 will be pretty brutal. Whatever about the Q2 figure I reckon we will record a 2-3% contraction this year.

I find it hard to believe there could be growth in the second quarter. surely everything was going down - could an organisation like Davy have advance knowledge of the figures (either oficially or just through knowing someone in the CSO) Or are they closely guarded by the CSO? It would seem a bit risky by Davy to make a forecast thats out of line with everyone else, just a couple of days before the figures are published, if theyre just speculating. Theyll look very silly if there is a fall in GDP. Are there any posters on the Pin who work in the CSO or know aomeone who does? Im surprised the ESRI quartely forecast isn’t out yet. I remember in June it came out about a week before the CSO estimates for the first quarter. Is it possible the government could have told them to stop publishing forecasts if theyre not good.

Judging by the quality of their research Davy’s have advance knowledge of feck-all.