From The Guardian, 18th Aug 2014
[
Iceland’s meteorological office has raised its risk level to the aviation industry for an eruption at its Bardarbunga volcano to orange, which is the fourth level on a five-grade scale. Ash from the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano in 2010 shut down much of Europe’s airspace for six days, affecting more than 10 million people and costing $1.7 billion.
](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/18/iceland-volcano-risk-raised-to-orange )
From an historical perspective, Bardarbunga is the largest volcano/volcanic system in Iceland. A smaller one Laki which erupted in 1783 is suspected to have led to a period of climate change across Europe, causing crop failures which some have suggested may have been a factor in the lead up to the French Revolution.
Blue Horseshoe
I understand Bardarbunga parties are quite memorable.
https://s23.postimg.org/een23rxuj/Bunga.jpg
Current wind conditions mean it would be straight here if it happens this week.
https://i59.tinypic.com/igexbq.png
earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi … ,29.86,293
twitter.com/hashtag/bardarbunga
Is Iceland’s next volcanic eruption about to happen? - -> theconversation.com/is-icelands … ppen-30642
Could this be another Eyjafjallajökull?
The Eyjafjallajökull eruption caused a lot of disruption to flights in Europe. However, it is important to note that, all things being equal, if an Eyjafjallajökull-like eruption happened tomorrow then there would be far less disruption to air traffic – something less than half the flight cancellations of 2010.
There are two main reasons for this. First is that the old flight rules – avoid all ash – have been relaxed so aircraft can now fly when there is some (but not too much) ash in the sky. Second is that the Met Office revised its model that estimated ash concentrations in the atmosphere, so we now have more certainty about how much ash there is and where it is.
source
CdeB
August 19, 2014, 7:16am
#6
Just take your iodine tablets; you should be grand.
Tinfoil hats are very effective against ash. At least it will stop the chemtrials for a while
Punter
August 19, 2014, 11:30am
#8
If this happens, maybe its time to go short on airlines…
Short? I’ll be trying to go as far away on them as possible!
Wikipedia claims:
What made this volcanic activity so disruptive to air travel was the combination of these four factors:[citation needed]
The volcano was directly under the jet stream.
so I would not hold my breath.
Not so darn tootin’ fast …
None of that is especially unusual. Many of Iceland’s volcanoes are under thick glaciers. The jet stream may have been unusually stable historically , but the jet gets “stuck” and produces stable patterns far more often in recent years (e.g. most of last winter), with an upward kink over Iceland not being uncommon. The rest of the points follow from the first two or three.
Really nice interactive page to describe the sisemic activity
baering.github.io/
ps200306:
September:
Wikipedia claims:
What made this volcanic activity so disruptive to air travel was the combination of these four factors:[citation needed]
The volcano was directly under the jet stream.
so I would not hold my breath.
Not so darn tootin’ fast …
None of that is especially unusual. Many of Iceland’s volcanoes are under thick glaciers. The jet stream may have been unusually stable historically , but the jet gets “stuck” and produces stable patterns far more often in recent years (e.g. most of last winter), with an upward kink over Iceland not being uncommon. The rest of the points follow from the first two or three.
Not to mention that Katla is well overdue and orders of magnitude larger in it’s eruptions that Eyjafjallajokull
The day we can predict eruptions give or take a year or so will be a fine day. From any original sources the magma is not moving to the surface. Orange alert. Not exactly imminent. More chinken licken stuff from mass media.
en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2945
There is no way to predict when the eruption may happen, but we should get a few hours notice. The good news for air travel is that both clusters are away from the heart of the main volcano which makes it less likely that an eruption will produce the fine ash that causes disruption.
,
I emphasise that we don’t know yet whether this is an isolated event or the start of a more prolonged and larger volcano-tectonic episode. It may be years before we know for certain. But at some time in the future there will be a major fissure eruption to the southwest of Bárðarbunga – we just don’t know when.theconversation.com/is-icelands … ppen-30642
Iceland volcano: Bardarbunga eruption sparks red alert - -> bbc.com/news/world-europe-28913165
Note: Presently there are no signs of ongoing volcanic activity. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano remains red as an imminent eruption can not be excluded. - > en.vedur.is/
Or indeed, it is
Whether it is a major eruption remains to be seen (it’s probably unlikely), but magma is on the surface, beneath the ice sheet which is 400m thick.
PS the jetstream forecast after monday looks okay… netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti … ream;sess=
Air alert level back down to orange as it looks like the current eruption is going to stay sub-glacial.
Yeah, hard to worry too much when its under 400m of ice. Hard to prodcue much fine ash there.
The article i linked explained even if it blows there needs to be a specific combination of events.
Could this be another Eyjafjallajökull?
The Eyjafjallajökull eruption caused a lot of disruption to flights in Europe. However, it is important to note that, all things being equal, if an Eyjafjallajökull-like eruption happened tomorrow then there would be far less disruption to air traffic – something less than half the flight cancellations of 2010.
There are two main reasons for this. First is that the old flight rules – avoid all ash – have been relaxed so aircraft can now fly when there is some (but not too much) ash in the sky. Second is that the Met Office revised its model that estimated ash concentrations in the atmosphere, so we now have more certainty about how much ash there is and where it is.
If something unusual were to happen and a substantial amount of magma started rising within the heart of Bárðarbunga, then there could be a large explosive ash-producing eruption. The good news is that we have a better idea of what to expect from such an explosive basalt eruption because we had one in 2011 at Grímsvötn.
To provide context, Grímsvötn was Iceland’s most powerful explosive eruption since Katla 1918, and was about 100 times more powerful than Eyjafjallajökull. Compared to Eyjafjallajökull 2010, Grímsvötn 2011 produced twice as much ash in a tenth of the time.
We were lucky with Grímsvötn 2011, because a combination of wind direction and the new flight rules meant far less disruption to air travel. Over Europe only about 900 out of 90,000 of flights were cancelled in 2011. In comparison, about 94,000 flights were cancelled during Eyjafjallajökull’s 2010 eruption.
Why was Eyjafjallajökull so bad?
Eyjafjallajökull 2010 was a “perfect volcanic storm”. It was unusually long-lived, about 39 days, whereas most explosive eruptions in Iceland last just a few days to a week. It produced an unusually high proportion of the type of fine ash that is most easily transported long distances. Dry weather meant that the ash was not “washed” out of the atmosphere, and prevailing winds carried the ash almost directly to the UK and western Europe. We had the old “ash in the sky so you don’t fly” flight rules which grounded everything. Finally, the old Met Office model slightly overestimated the concentration of ash in the sky.
theconversation.com/is-icelands … ppen-30642
This time, they’ll wait until the paint-job gets scuffed before declaring a no fly zone!
