IL&P - Investors Conference Call

Excerpts from the Preliminary 2006 Irish Life and Permanent Plc Earnings Conference Call - Final. Full version @ insurancenewsnet.com/article.asp … afde34de70 if you fancy it.

David Went (outgoing CEO IL&P), in response to a question from Scott Rankin (Davys);

Peter Fitzpatrick (Group FD, IL&P) in response to a follow up question from Sebastian Orsi (Merrion) attempting to quantify the “Distortion”

Another participant Eamonn Hughes (Goodbodys) cuts across the change the topic

Blue Horseshoe

Did none of these well paid analysts point out that even if a person paid 90k stamp duty on buying now , if it is removed in a years time house prices will rise to reflect this and no one would be able to capitalise on it! Maybe Went does’nt beleive people stretch their budget as much as they can afford/borrow. This was clearly demonstrated when the bands for stamp duty were messed with in 2004. And anyway if people feel property is such a good bet in medium to long run then why worry about 6/9% stamp duty when prices of property rose 12% on average last year! Plus new builds don’t have stamp duty and they are’nt selling well either.

90000 people aged 25*, lets say 2.5 per house, thats only 36000 houses lads!

*Assume everybody buys when they are 25 just as an average

I’m 25! Make that 35,999 houses required!

David Went is oft to suggest that all’s OK in the market due to the total numbers in the FTB demographic, conveniently ignoring

Not everyone buys alone
Not eveyone is staying here
Not everyone will qualify for a loan
Not everyone wants to own a property here
Not everyone is at liberty (some are kept at the States discression)

and I’m sure there are a few other good reasons (answers on the back of a 50 to …)

Blue Horseshoe

90,000 people reaching 25?
There were only **70,843 **Irish people born in 1982 - where is he getting the extra 19,000 from … immigrants?

coe.int/t/e/social_cohesion/ … RLTAB5.xls

Interestingly, the number of Irish people turning 25 drops to 48,000 per year over the next ten years.

Of course a lot of people will inherit their grandmothers house or extend their parents house etc. so that will weaken demand further.

From;
cso.ie/statistics/bthsdthsmarriages.htm

2005: 61,042 births 27,441 deaths

If the 90k figure is right and every 2 ppl buy a house (unrealistic I know) and 27k ppl err are no longer with us and again every two leave a house say 13k homes thats a demand level of 33k new houses per year.

Yes there is demand out there it’s one third the build rate!!!

This seems to tie back to the amount of property on the market being bought by first time buyers - yet surely demand must be in excess of this given that the population in the private rented sector would seem to be rising via inward migration? :confused:

Or the amount being taken up by speculators/invesors!

Blue Horseshoe

Would it be unreasonable to ‘speculate’ that the supply of housing now comfortably exceeds demand by a considerable margin?