IMF delivers tough assessment of Irish economy … ssessment/

Get your grannies in line.

I am, as usual, at an absolute loss in understanding positive sentiment within and without Ireland about our prospects.

Unemployment, sovereign debt, the deficit, non-functioning banks, growth rates, mortgage debt, personal debt, retail and the domestic economy…none of these are heading in the right direction, and yet house prices are rising, the Troika hold us up as an example and continue to fund the hoolie, Dublin is party town on a Saturday night and teachers think they are in a position to refuse modest income cuts.

I am way, way, way behind in understanding any of it.


I think I’m even further behind than you Larry.

As I type I am actively employing professional advice re: where best to park all assets belonging to me and mine (all be they modest) outside of the entire EU. (My financial acumen is very limited) Canada is looking favourable due to some personal connections and ease of access out there.
To be honest don’t especially care so long as I’m keeping no more than a current account on this not-so-fair isle.

Every time I try to envisage how this whole catastrophe will unfold, I end up with the same conclusion.
It is a black hole suddenly appearing in the vicinity of Athlone.

Maybe Ireland IS different and the economic fundamentals can be ignored forever.

Unemployment - nearing EU average. And far lower than the rest of the piigs.
Sovereign debt- deals done on Anglo debt
Deficit- being reduced as planned
Non functioning bank- some of the best capitalized banks in Europe.
Growth rates- better forecasts than Germany
Mortgage/personal debt- apparently being dealt with
Retail/ domestic economy- GNP up last year


Honestly, I think this whole corner of the Internet, Irish blogosphere and all, needs a few Pollyannas. That’s often said derogatively, but in all honesty, I loved her character, and that was a great story. It’s about time the tide turned.

nearing? at what pace gordon???
and far lower than the rest? “I was only 20mph over the speed limit…there were others doing at least 40 over…I can’t believe they stopped me”

ah sure yeah…that debt got written off in those ‘deals done’ right!!!

quote me the exact plan that this is following in real time gordon…

If only we had been able to say that about ourselves in 2007…

Give them til soon after September elections and we’ll see about their growth forecast

In what world or parallel universe is what’s going on right now surrounding this issue anything remotely resembling ‘apparently being dealt with’…(and I even allowing you the use of ‘apparently’…)

And could you compare that to increase in government spending please Gordon? I’m a little hazy…

Either you’re being very tongue in cheek, or a member of young Fine Gael.

Did we only plan to reduce the deficit on an annualised €2.3bn? I thought it was more like €3bn+. It needs to be €8bn+.

Still heading for €14bn in 2013 FFS. That’s 5 years in at this stage and still overspending by €14bn. Something has to give eventually.

Maybe not but my personal metric the number of people directly unemployed in the main families around me has dropped from almost one per familiy in 2008/09 to only one person at present. Also in the 80’s there was also money with certain people and now doesn’t seem much different. Won’t necessarily keep fundamentals at bay for ever but may explain some dissonance. By the time its effects wain completely some of the postive indicators could conceivably improve or we could be hit by any one of the many unexploded nuclear IUDS which surround us. Who knows but I reckon anyone who is clearly predicting the likely failure/recovery mode for Ireland is probably a BS merchant. A wide spectrum of outcomes seem possible to me.

The banks would be in agreement with this for the most part. Now the IMF are stating repos need to accelerate rapidly. The IMF are still running the country right? and holding the purse strings I hear. The banks hold the title deeds yeah?

So I’ll expect the repos to start tout de suite :angry:

well u can kiss your savings and pensions goodbye

I knew I shouldn’t have built that LHC in the back garden. :-GC

But, I’ve already come to the conclusion that by the time I retire in about 15 years or so, this crisis will be history, one way or another!
Whatever way it is, there’ll be little left in the pension pot. XX

… even begun?

The problem is that Central Banks have ensured that fundamentals are being ignored everywhere. So, you can either hold back thinking that eventually economic realities MUST hold sway, or you decide that betting against Central Banks is probably going to be a losing bet, or at least one that could take an awfully long time to come to fruition.

Either way I’m fed up with it all -I just want to buy a house at a ‘fair’ price and get on with life.

Japan gives a clue as to what happens when arrears build up.
A second banking collapse is my prediction.

Does this IMF report mention that unemployment is ~23% when you include the underemployed and that 35% of under-26 are unemployed ?
Anyone have a link to the actual assessment?

Any way of adding emigration to that stat?