IMF Downgrades Global Economic Outlook Again October 2015


#1

IMF Downgrades Global Economic Outlook Again
wsj.com/articles/imf-downgra … 1444140016

According to IMF reports, in October 2014, global growth for 2015 was projected to be 3.8%
It has been revised several times throughout this year.

Currently, it stands at 3.1% which is 0.1% off what is classified by economists as a global recession.

“Downside risks to the world economy appear more pronounced than they did just a few months ago.”

Could we be heading into another Global Recession?


#2

How big a threat is this to the Irish economy

A lot of commentators put the improved Irish economic data largely down to

  • US and UK economies outperforming the Eurozone
  • weakness of euro

or put it another way - not thanks to how great the current government is. Positive news is always good of course, but not if you base policy on assuming this will continue ad infinitum

Seeing as we framed an election budget based on the usual Disco Stu school of economics could this turn the milk sour in Ireland?


#3

If EURUSD hits parity then Ireland will be ok.
Watch the sectoral balances and ignore the other nonsense…
Trade Balance and Govt Deficit helping the Private Surplus for Ireland at the moment.

Almost impossible for Yellen to hike rates now — the German 5Yr is negative 13bps today!! the US 5Yr is positive 135bps; if she hikes she’ll blow that out to 175bps+ … and that would push EURUSD inside parity.


#4

Low interest rates threaten solvency of pension funds and insurers - -> oecd.org/economy/low-interes … surers.htm
24/06/2015

Low interest rates have intended, unintended consequences - -> crainsdetroit.com/article/20 … nsequences

Low interest rates are the problem, not the solution - -> ft.com/cms/s/0/9ef4ab62-4d7a … 77189.html

Eventually the Fed and others will have to follow the market and raise or become irrelevant, in the meantime they are sowing chaos.


#5

Low interest rates deflationary? Sheesh, hoocudanode…


#6

People slowly realising the cult of the central banker is just that: a cult.
Fiscal, not monetary, is the lever which best adjusts an economies demand.


#7

How can 3% growth be called a recession. Sounds a bit implausible to me


#8

two consecutive quarters of lower rate growth
so it’s essentially a second derivative measure


#9

Does anyone here think ZIRP will end without a bang ?


#10

You mean that it can’t end without some shock, such as a war, to drive inflation?

I’m not sure, but it’s not looking good. Looking back, the failure of high oil prices to drive inflation (wage demands) should have been a warning sign. High housing prices (e.g. in London/SE England) aren’t working either. Even the wage demands of the successful economies (e.g. Germany) are pretty muted.