IMF gloomy on recovery predictions from State

[Dreaded_Estate]

independent.ie/business/iris … 79368.html

AN imminent report on Ireland from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is likely to stress the unprecedented nature of the economic challenge the country faces.

Sources say the IMF’s projections on the budget deficit and medium-term recovery in the economy may be somewhat gloomier than those of the Government.

Official figures put the underlying deficit at around 8pc of output (GDP) this year, but budget projections see a return to growth of more than 3pc in 2011.

The IMF is believed to have calculated that the “structural” deficit could be as much as 10pc of GDP, or €18bn, and that correcting this will require very difficult choices on public spending.

It will endorse the widespread view that most of the correction must now come on the spending side, rather than through more tax rises.

This would include serious examination of public sector wages.

The IMF’s report is likely to repeat previous views that Ireland needs to target its welfare benefits more precisely, in view of the pressures on public spending.

Even if it is not spelt out directly, this will be taken to include the universal payment of untaxed child benefit.

Report

The report does not find fault with the Government’s approach to the crisis, or its controversial plans to set up the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) to remove development loans from the banks’ balance sheets.

But the report does emphasise the amount of effort it will take to solve these problems.

The Government’s plans see a return to borrowing of less than 3pc of GDP by 2013, from this year’s level of around 11pc. Such an ambitious plan will require sustained action on the Government’s part, the analysts in Washington say.

On bank rescue, it is likely to emphasise that it is essential that NAMA pays the correct value for the banks’ development loans.

This has been a political bone of contention, with opposition politicians claiming the Government is planning to bail out the banks and developers, by paying too much for the loans.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen has insisted the loans will be valued by experts on an independent basis.

The IMF recognises that the Government has moved quickly on the banking crisis in comparison with some other countries, and that guarantees, re-capitalisation and removal of bad assets must all be part of any re-structuring.

Such is the scale of the twin budgetary and banking challenges that the report is expected to state clearly the risks that the Irish economy still faces and the lack of any certainty that the ambitious recovery targets can be met.

• Brendan Keenan

[ProfJamesMoriarty]

@Dreaded_Estate

This would include serious examination of public sector wages.

The IMF’s report is likely to repeat previous views that Ireland needs to target its welfare benefits more precisely, in view of the pressures on public spending.

That won’t please Ireland’s 2 unelected policymakers - David Begg and Fr Sean Healy.
Every single benchmarking increase and budget giveaway they appeared angry and complained that it was not enough.
Will be fascinating to see how they react to a cutback

[Rick_Flair]

@ProfJamesMoriarty

@Dreaded_Estate

This would include serious examination of public sector wages.

The IMF’s report is likely to repeat previous views that Ireland needs to target its welfare benefits more precisely, in view of the pressures on public spending.

That won’t please Ireland’s 2 unelected policymakers - David Begg and Fr Sean Healy.
Every single benchmarking increase and budget giveaway they appeared angry and complained that it was not enough.
Will be fascinating to see how they react to a cutback

Only two? What about Turlough O’Sullivan?

In any event, excessive pay (at certain levels) of the public sector is not the Unions fault.

The Unions are sent into to bargain on behalf of their members and extract the best deal possible. Bertie signed the cheques.

Besides this “non-elected” point is nonsense. Do you think we should directly elect union leaders?

[bodyofevidence]

@Dreaded_Estate

IMF gloomy on recovery predictions from State - Independent.ie

AN imminent report on Ireland from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is likely to stress the unprecedented nature of the economic challenge the country faces.

Sources say the IMF’s projections on the budget deficit and medium-term recovery in the economy may be somewhat gloomier than those of the Government.

Official figures put the underlying deficit at around 8pc of output (GDP) this year, but budget projections see a return to growth of more than 3pc in 2011.

The IMF is believed to have calculated that the “structural” deficit could be as much as 10pc of GDP, or €18bn, and that correcting this will require very difficult choices on public spending.

It will endorse the widespread view that most of the correction must now come on the spending side, rather than through more tax rises.

This would include serious examination of public sector wages.

The IMF’s report is likely to repeat previous views that Ireland needs to target its welfare benefits more precisely, in view of the pressures on public spending.

Even if it is not spelt out directly, this will be taken to include the universal payment of untaxed child benefit.

Report

The report does not find fault with the Government’s approach to the crisis, or its controversial plans to set up the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) to remove development loans from the banks’ balance sheets.

But the report does emphasise the amount of effort it will take to solve these problems.

The Government’s plans see a return to borrowing of less than 3pc of GDP by 2013, from this year’s level of around 11pc. Such an ambitious plan will require sustained action on the Government’s part, the analysts in Washington say.

**On bank rescue, it is likely to emphasise that it is essential that NAMA pays the correct value for the banks’ development loans.

This has been a political bone of contention, with opposition politicians claiming the Government is planning to bail out the banks and developers, by paying too much for the loans.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen has insisted the loans will be valued by experts on an independent basis.**

The IMF recognises that the Government has moved quickly on the banking crisis in comparison with some other countries, and that guarantees, re-capitalisation and removal of bad assets must all be part of any re-structuring.

Such is the scale of the twin budgetary and banking challenges that the report is expected to state clearly the risks that the Irish economy still faces and the lack of any certainty that the ambitious recovery targets can be met.

• Brendan Keenan

what a pity that the 2 brians have decided on their own that it will be 20%…Were there any others in the room with them?

[ProfJamesMoriarty]

@Rick Flair

Only two? What about Turlough O’Sullivan?

In any event, excessive pay (at certain levels) of the public sector is not the Unions fault.

The Unions are sent into to bargain on behalf of their members and extract the best deal possible. Bertie signed the cheques.

Besides this “non-elected” point is nonsense. Do you think we should directly elect union leaders?

I don’t care how they are elected - they should not have been in there in the first place.
Bertie’s whole “social partnership” model that foreigners were exhorted to follow has been exposed as a scam.
As soon as sacrifices were required the “partners” told him to f*ck off and called strikes and protests.
As soon as the ATM machine loaded by private sector workers ran dry the lobby groups showed absolutely NO PARTNERSHIP.
Bertie is a spineless populist.

[verbatim]

IMF to Recommend Flexibility for Ireland’s Bad Bank, Times Says

By Louisa Nesbitt
June 19 (Bloomberg) – The International Monetary Fund will
advise Ireland to include loans such as residential mortgages in
its so-called “bad bank” should unemployment continue to rise,
the Irish Times reported, without citing anyone.
The IMF will say the Irish government shouldn’t restrict
the National Asset Management Agency to development real-estate
loans, the newspaper said. It will recommend in a report on
Ireland that the agency have an option to acquire other loans,
the Times said.

[conor_mc]

@Rick Flair

Besides this “non-elected” point is nonsense. Do you think we should directly elect union leaders?

No, union leaders and priests shouldn’t be anywhere near national policy decisions though.

Nor should IBEC leaders for that matter.

[2Pack]

so called ‘partnership’ is a dead parrot , it is also undemocratic with too many deals done under ‘partnership’ and no oversight allowed in the Dáil . Should Begg have more power than Gilmore ??? I think not

best cremate the thing for now.

[spqr64]

Rick Flair said

In any event, excessive pay (at certain levels) of the public sector is not the Unions fault.

The Unions are sent into to bargain on behalf of their members and extract the best deal possible. Bertie signed the cheques.

That is the equivalent of saying " I took the sweets from the clhild and its not my fault the child couldnt defend itself" and its utterly fing proposterous that unions went into bargain (if they did) without giving a thought to the rest of society. Because if its true then they are nothing short of being a shower of greedy me fein mongrel bas*s and shows they are as much to blame for the economic position the country is in today as any politician or banker, developer, VI.

[Dom_K_Morgan]

@ProfJamesMoriarty

That won’t please Ireland’s 2 unelected policymakers - David Begg and Fr Sean Healy.

An excellent point!! I have been against this process ever since for the very reason that it undermines democratic governance. Even in the good days when everyone seemed pleased with the results, it was obvious that the very principle of this process is flawed. The policy should be made in the Dail by the elected representatives. Whether union leaders are elected by their members is utterly irrelevant - they are not elected by the voters and the same goes for Fr. Sean Healy. In fact they represent minority of population and workforce and should not have had the gravity to influence the policy decisions to the extent that they had.

[soc]

@ProfJamesMoriarty

Bertie’s whole “social partnership” model that foreigners were exhorted to follow has been exposed as a scam.
As soon as sacrifices were required the “partners” told him to f*ck off and called strikes and protests.
As soon as the ATM machine loaded by private sector workers ran dry the lobby groups showed absolutely NO PARTNERSHIP.
Bertie is a spineless populist.

Nail, hammer, head - social partnership has always been a one way bet and over time developped into a vessel for PS unions to easily milk the system. Bertie would agree to anything to keep his little cabal together - he’s a poxy little rat AFAIC

[Mossy_Heneberry]

If union leaders or priests or anyone else for that matter want to change government policy let them set up their own political parties and let the voters decide on whether they want to accept or reject those policies.

[EireClare]

@2Pack

so called ‘partnership’ is a dead parrot , it is also undemocratic with too many deals done under ‘partnership’ and no oversight allowed in the Dáil . Should Begg have more power than Gilmore ??? I think not

best cremate the thing for now.

You think the dail is an instrument for oversight???

There is no democracy in this country. Its a dictatorship of ‘the party’ who only have to buy an election once every 5 years

[EireClare]

@Dom K. Morgan

@ProfJamesMoriarty

That won’t please Ireland’s 2 unelected policymakers - David Begg and Fr Sean Healy.

An excellent point!! I have been against this process ever since for the very reason that it undermines democratic governance. Even in the good days when everyone seemed pleased with the results, it was obvious that the very principle of this process is flawed. The policy should be made in the Dail by the elected representatives. Whether union leaders are elected by their members is utterly irrelevant - they are not elected by the voters and the same goes for Fr. Sean Healy. In fact they represent minority of population and workforce and should not have had the gravity to influence the policy decisions to the extent that they had.

Begg and Healy are one thing, but for as long as I can remember, almost all of our policy making has been farmed out to ‘consultants’ who are even less accountable than Healy and Begg (considering the fact that we dont even know their names most of the time other than that they work for KPMG or some such agency

[yoganmahew]

Back on topic please.

[MadPad]

Has the IMF changed to IMFTBO the International Ministry For The Bleeding Obvious?

Not surprising these banksters are advocating that their fellow banksters continue to be bailed out by the state… Or that they see it clearly that its one or the other… dole/wages/services vs banksters.