Impact of Brexit on Irish Property Prices

I’m close to buying my first house after many years of procrastination. Had planned to put offer in this morning.

Brexit result has shocked me. Obviously this has had an immediate negative effect on stock markets worldwide. It could also turn out to be the start of a steady decline in those markets in the medium term.

If I remember correctly, the housing price decline in Ireland and in other western economies in 2007, was precipitated by the stock market correction. Will the same happen again?

Anyone got a view on this please? Buying outside of Dublin.

I don’t foresee a massive impact on the majority of the housing stock (particularly ex-Dublin) as I don’t think we’re currently in a bubble.

Demand may reduce at the Dublin high-end. Madelyn Lyons in the IT yesterday mentioned a glut of Dublin properties at the 700-1m level where vendors would need to adjust down their expectations, and that was pre-Brexit.

God knows what will happen to the super-high end, but who cares anyway, zeroth world problem. It’s possible that demand from repatriated cash will be replaced by other sources as people bail from the UK property market. Or not.

Off-topic, I think it’s quite possible that the UK housing market will crash. That would be very bad - they’d have the Irish problem of bailing out banks whilst simultaneously fighting increasing govt debt servicing costs. The difference is that they can print money.

Brexit is a strong positive for the higher end of the Irish market.

Irish REITs look undervalued

If your thinking is that UK banks are going to move en masse to Ireland I’d have to say youre completely fucking deluded.

Your biggest market has just given you 2 fingers and you may yet have the additional costs of an extra 6 counties to carry.
Youre already one of the most indebted nations in the history of humanity.
Youd have to be standing on your head to see an upside to this.

I can’t see them moving to Ireland - who will they get to work for them? The talent isn’t here, we have had to import people en masse just to fill basic telesales jobs in the likes of Google and Twitter, nevermind finding the creme of the crop to work in high finance, investment banking, etc., which has never existed here. As far as I know all of the major international investment banks/finance houses who are here are purely involved in bank end support functions. Maybe they will increase the amount of support workers here and reduce them in the UK, but can’t see the brains of the operations coming here.

Many multinationals have operations in both the UK & Ireland.
All that happens is teams and divisions are relocated to their Dublin branch.
And with any of their new business set-ups, the UK is simply no longer considered.
Whole companies don’t just up and leave overnight.
It’s a slow, but inextricable process.
How do you eat an elephant ?

The more immediate impact will come from US FDI into Europe.
The UK is no longer an option.
Ireland is now the only english-speaking country in Europe.
For many US companies looking for a European base, there is simply no alternative.

Friend of mine works for an American bank in Ireland, mentioned they have been on a massive recruitment and promotion drive over the past year - noted it was a lot to do with the potential Brexit.

Completely agree, but delusion is something the Irish excel at, especially when it comes to house prices.

Got to second the US in Ireland growth, a friend told me his american bosses were up early making calls, talking about Irish expansion plans. They set up in Ireland last year in anticipation of a possible Brexit! Money talks, bullshit walks.

What might seem insignificant to a large market like the UK will be huge in a small market like Ireland. What one man discards can be another mans opportunity.

At least in the medium term, will this impact banks’ mortgage lending? i.e. will they be more cautious to see how this will play out, or would they have already factored a Brexit into their lending strategy for 2016?

If banks pull back on lending or start creating extra hoops for existing mortgage applicants to jump through, this would presumably have some downward effect on house prices, even assuming half of all house purchases are cash.

People missing the big picture in here again.

Man, thepropertypin used to be intelligent.

This is the beginning of the end of the EU as we know it. One of it’s strongest members has elected to leave. Others will follow in time. If the UK manages to get by, it will embolden others to give Germany the finger. If the UK falls apart, well, we’re in for the next global financial crisis and Ireland is right in the firing line.

We’re a “small open economy”, remember.

Keep talking about your 700k semi-D refurb job in the south side.

Have been warning long enough about the next stage.
Fuck sake.

For starters UK banks and banks located in the UK are two very different things. Those financial services companies and banks that sell into the European market will no longer be based in London. And you know what, Dublin with its English speaking population and low tax rate is a natural home for some of these jobs.

For the record I have been delusional for several years now :slight_smile:

And there was me thinking Dublin didn’t do homes very well at all.

At least Morgan Stanley is denying “that it is moving 2,000 jobs to Dublin and Frankfurt following the vote for the UK to leave the EU” :slight_smile:

independent.co.uk/news/busin … 00911.html

As of now, the major publicly traded house building companies are down over 25%.

From the article:

That’s a very positive way to put “your role has been eliminated”…

They will relocate some jobs here - but it won’t be the highly paid ‘City’ jobs. Dublin has an English speaking population, yes, but it doesn’t have the right kind of people and talent for these huge banks. Looking even at the largest 10 investment banks in the world:

1 - JPMorgan Chase
2 - Goldman Sachs
3 - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
4 - Morgan Stanley
5 - Citigroup
6 - Deutsche Bank
7 - Credit Suisse
8 - Barclays Capital
9 - UBS
10 - Wells Fargo

They all have huge London operations and some of them have existing smaller Irish operations. Of those with a presence in Ireland, e.g. Morgan Stanley, they basically just have fund administration operations here. Compare the description of their Ireland operation to some of their other European offices:

That’s just one of the banks, but the same applies for the others too. If they move jobs here, it will be all their lower end jobs - which isn’t to say we shouldn’t be happy to get them, just that we won’t be getting the big money, highly remunerated jobs that these banks are known for. Those jobs will be moved to more attractive European countries where they already provide these services.

Just because we speak English doesn’t make us the default option. The highly educated and intelligent people these banks hire will most likely already speak English irrespective of the country they’re in, be it Switzerland, Germany, France, or wherever. We don’t hold a monopoly on the english language.

The working class and old middle class in England with a good chunk of debt to service should be very alarmed by what has happened. A political vacuum has formed where Cameron and Osbourne previously shored up/stored up the problems Britain faced down in the last 3 years following the Blair splurge. House prices are astronomical in most of England. The cost of living is high. They have been printing money for years now. and they run very significant deficits they’ve barely addressed.

Yes they have devalued the pound overnight. That helps their exports. But only makes their imports more expensive and the leave side were boasting this morning about how much they import from Europe compared to what they export. They have limited tools to play with to deal with what is coming. Maybe someone can explain why Britain is in a better place right now, than Ireland was in 2011, and let’s recall living that.

I keep thinking this will need to be revisited in the next 5/10 years. The young will revolt to make it happen when they see the whip hand coming their way and the real agenda standing behind the jolly japes of Boris and Co. without EU employment rights there to be slagged off.

My own assessment on the OP’s question is nothing. That is, nothing will happen house prices in Ireland (except depression at the high end where fueled by expats / those with serious money who are, in the manner of safe sex, careful as to where they put it).

Someone made the point about eating an elephant earlier. The effects of Brexit will roll out relatively slowly due to the sheer inertia involved in a seismic change. The news agenda will move on and Paddy will proceed with his love affair with property as he has always done: short sightedly and unrestrained … until staring disaster in the face.

Heck, people flock into forever homes in Sandymount ignoring the fact it’s a flood risk that is only likely to disimprove

Go easy on the drama there. We are probably on a way into a new recession now (fecking great :frowning:) along with the UK

BUT

this opens up a whole load of opportunities, which Ireland is uniquely positioned to take advantage of

As to the subject of the thread, prices will go up, especially if people move here from UK or instead of getting a job there endup in a job here.

This Brexit business has already earned me a few grand this morning :smiley: so maybe my judgment is clouded…

Frexit next. At what stage in the exit stampede will Ireland realize everyone has left the party?