Indo: Abolition of stamp duty fails to boost market

[done_amp_dusted]

independent.ie/national-news/abolition-of-stamp-duty-fails-to-boost-market-1038189.html

Some interesting quotes in there:

“At the end of the day, the market is very weak and sales are almost non-existent,” said a source who wished not to be named. “The abolition of stamp duty was helpful to a small number of people. But they were only paying small sums anyway.” He said FTBs were waiting to see what happened, and investors were “not confident”.

Paul Murgatroyd of Douglas Newman Good (DNG) said viewings and sales had picked up recently. But the firm’s figures showed prices have fallen by an average of about 5pc in the first six months of this year.

“We’re expecting soft prices for the rest of the year, probably going down another 2pc to 5pc.”

I like how a 7-10% nominal price drop this year is “soft prices”. But even so, this is unprecedented gloom from an estate agent, if he posted here he’d be one of the more bearish people.

[Eirmail]

That is unbelievably bearish from a VI, the lowest growth/decline I heard mentioned before by a VI for 2007 was -2% from AIB which they somehow claimed as a soft landing. Minus 7-10 percent in a year is at best a correction or at worst a huge chunk of a crash.

[Carnage]

If sales are weak or non-existant, then the real price fall will not be reflected in the likes of the ESRI figures and the daft asking price figures are irrelevant. The housing market is likely to be in worse shape than the mooted 7-10% drop, (this may even be spin). Developers, Estate Agents and Banks know this. I’d like to be a fly on the wall at one of their monday morning sales/target tracking meetings.

[plaudit]

Ronan O’Driscoll of Douglas Newman Good (DNG) said buyers were fearful of further interest rate rises. “The mortgage interest relief is really where the issue is at. To increase it would be a great thing because it goes straight into the buyer’s pocket and would nullify any more interest rate increases.”

So now we will have to wait for the December budget to sort it out!

[A_Random_Walk]

Once tax revenues start to fall, I’d hope (and genuinely expect) that the government will give greater priority to more deserving cases than mortgage interest relief. The VIs have been shown up by the Stamp Duty debacle which they insisted would “solve” the problem - it has made no change by their own admission, so crying wolf is the only description for it.

I think Cowen has this one in hand (and I’m not a FF supporter).

[murrayo]

@done&dusted

independent.ie/national-news/abolition-of-stamp-duty-fails-to-boost-market-1038189.html

Some interesting quotes in there:

“At the end of the day, the market is very weak and sales are almost non-existent,” said a source who wished not to be named. “The abolition of stamp duty was helpful to a small number of people. But they were only paying small sums anyway.” He said FTBs were waiting to see what happened, and investors were “not confident”.

Paul Murgatroyd of Douglas Newman Good (DNG) said viewings and sales had picked up recently. But the firm’s figures showed prices have fallen by an average of about 5pc in the first six months of this year.

“We’re expecting soft prices for the rest of the year, probably going down another 2pc to 5pc.”

I like how a 7-10% nominal price drop this year is “soft prices”. But even so, this is unprecedented gloom from an estate agent, if he posted here he’d be one of the more bearish people.

At least this guy seems to have some integrity - many other EA’s have spouted out ridiculous figures , which will come back to haunt them IMO.

[beattie]

@A Random Walk

Once tax revenues start to fall, I’d hope (and genuinely expect) that the government will give greater priority to more deserving cases than mortgage interest relief.

The problem is that they all but promised it to the unions last week. Micheal Martin said as much afterwards. I doubt the state of the nations finances will prevent them for doing so but I agree there are many more deserving causes.

[Open_Window]

Is that the death knell of the Irish Property market I hear

[2Pack]

@Open Window

Is that the death knell of the Irish Property market I hear

Not from Ken McDonald you didn’t . Ken told us the real inside buzz a few months back

independent.ie/opinion/analy … 23542.html

Property market’s no house of cards
By Ken MacDonald
Sunday March 25 2007

EG

Since the start of this year the hysterical negativity has risen to a crescendo from some quarters, lacking balance and an appreciation of the intricacies of theresidential market. Price moderation is mistaken for weakness, when in fact it represents maturity and long-term sustainability.

10% down is Maturity then and not softness or a crash.

There are bizarre, irresponsible predictions from some quarters that housing completions will be down to 50,000 this year. This reflects a serious misjudgement as well as perhaps an element of wishful thinking. If it were to happen, and it certainly will not, the ensuing shortage of product would cause prices and rents to rise dramatically.

Completions will hardly exceed 60k this year I have now decided, certainly not 65k . Despite the rapidly worsening completion situation prices are still going down and rents plateaued as Ken opened his mouth in March…having risen in the first quarter.

Investors play a vital role in purchasing residential properties and placing them on the rental market. They will obviously be active in the Irish market in the years ahead as they see the attractive returns in areas of short supply, close to good transport. Currently investors account for around 25 per cent of new home purchasers and despitereports to the contrary,this number is not decreasing.

Dream on Ken .

There is no better investment than Irish property at present, and I believe that I will be proved right in this conviction.

LOL . Right on Ken .

In 2006 Ken would have had you shell out €340k for a 1 bed in Bellevue in Islandbridge , see

archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/200 … y14107.asp

When he wrote that article in March it was €317k. Since then Ken has dropped the price to €290k

daft.ie/searchsale.daft?sear … d=146746&s[agent_id]=10&s[p]=upppppss

**Thats down €50k or 14.7% down. **All on Kens watch . Still, we should do what Ken says not what Ken does. Your property would actually have matured had you bought in March .

[flying_dutchman]

This whole Indo Article is stomach turning…haven’t they been yelling for months to abolish it and now…(yes and I’m not a big fan of this current government)

The Government’s bid to kickstart the property market has failed.

It’s more and more reminding me of a spoiled child…they got what they wanted and now it doesn’t work…oh, boohoo

Did anybody happen to see the article in the Sunday Times about buying your house in a ‘worse’ area?..According to that, if there’s a high crime rate you can easily save yourself a fancy 20%…I read that and threw it away. But it’s the next solution to the property debacle. Move into Moyross and buy a bullet proof vest.

[Green_Bear]

@2Pack

Not from Ken McDonald you didn’t . Ken told us the real inside buzz a few months back

Indeed he did …

@2Pack

There are bizarre, irresponsible predictions from some quarters that housing completions will be down to 50,000 this year. This reflects a serious misjudgement as well as perhaps an element of wishful thinking. If it were to happen, and it certainly will not, the ensuing shortage of product would cause prices and rents to rise dramatically.

Completions will hardly exceed 60k this year I have now decided, certainly not 65k . Despite the rapidly worsening completion situation prices are still going down and rents plateaued as Ken opened his mouth in March…having risen in the first quarter.

The 65K figure could well be right if the rumour on the number of upcoming layoffs I heard is true. The other thread about job losses is looking really optimistic.

@2Pack

There is no better investment than Irish property at present, and I believe that I will be proved right in this conviction.

LOL . Right on Ken .

I wonder if he ever did offload his "investment" in Blackrock, 'twas still advertised on the Sherry Fitzgerald site last time I looked.

[Pill]

@2Pack

@Open Window

Is that the death knell of the Irish Property market I hear

Not from Ken McDonald you didn’t . Ken told us the real inside buzz a few months back

independent.ie/opinion/analy … 23542.html

Property market’s no house of cards
By Ken MacDonald
Sunday March 25 2007

EG

Since the start of this year the hysterical negativity has risen to a crescendo from some quarters, lacking balance and an appreciation of the intricacies of theresidential market. Price moderation is mistaken for weakness, when in fact it represents maturity and long-term sustainability.

10% down is Maturity then and not softness or a crash.

There are bizarre, irresponsible predictions from some quarters that housing completions will be down to 50,000 this year. This reflects a serious misjudgement as well as perhaps an element of wishful thinking. If it were to happen, and it certainly will not, the ensuing shortage of product would cause prices and rents to rise dramatically.

Completions will hardly exceed 60k this year I have now decided, certainly not 65k . Despite the rapidly worsening completion situation prices are still going down and rents plateaued as Ken opened his mouth in March…having risen in the first quarter.

Investors play a vital role in purchasing residential properties and placing them on the rental market. They will obviously be active in the Irish market in the years ahead as they see the attractive returns in areas of short supply, close to good transport. Currently investors account for around 25 per cent of new home purchasers and despitereports to the contrary,this number is not decreasing.

Dream on Ken .

There is no better investment than Irish property at present, and I believe that I will be proved right in this conviction.

LOL . Right on Ken .

In 2006 Ken would have had you shell out €340k for a 1 bed in Bellevue in Islandbridge , see

archives.tcm.ie/businesspost/200 … y14107.asp

When he wrote that article in March it was €317k. Since then Ken has dropped the price to €290k

daft.ie/searchsale.daft?sear … d=146746&s[agent_id]=10&s[p]=upppppss

**Thats down €50k or 14.7% down. **All on Kens watch . Still, we should do what Ken says not what Ken does. Your property would actually have matured had you bought in March .

Good post 2pack. How I’d love discuss this with Ronald with a few FTBs from early 2007 as participants…

[flying_dutchman]

Straws! Straws!, grasp them now!
oh, darn!

I think Ken is going to need the 'ol Reality Check…and a lot of people with him…maybe they could get a group discount?

[Tyrannosaurus]

@2Pack

Your property would actually have matured had you bought in March .

You see most people just wouldnt appreciate that. Ah!, the finer things in life

[Poacher]

@Green Bear

The 65K figure could well be right if the rumour on the number of upcoming layoffs I heard is true. The other thread about job losses is looking really optimistic.

Hi Green Bear, can you elaborate on the detail of the rumour you are referring to, and its source (if permissable) - I’ve heard a few things myself anecdotally but havent been able to pin anything concrete down - might be more appropriate to the other thread by the way - if you prefer maybe post your reply over there
Cheers

[bearishbull]

Dont forget to factor in inflation/appropriate discount rate for an individual to any nominal drops.

If Sales are non-existant then only best properties in every region/area/house type are selling hiding the true extent of falls across less attractive properties nearby aand wider market.

Oh the hangover, damn you four day drinking sessions!

[Tyrannosaurus]

Irish Examiner

TANAISTE arid Finance Minister Brian Cowen has ruled out backdating to the December budget, the abolition of stamp duty for first-time buyers.

It means home-buyers who took Mr Cowen at his word on budget day, when he indicated there would be no changes to the stamp duty regime and who subsequently purchased houses, will not get their levies refunded.

Stamp duty for first-time buyers was abolished by Mr Cowen following the election.

First-time purchasers who presented their home deeds to the Revenue Commissioners on of after April 30 this year will be exempt from the duty.