I’ve create a demographic Xmas tree so that it’s possible to try and get a picture of what is happening with the demographics. I’ll try and develop this a bit in the future, but basically there are a number of waves moving through the demographics (birth booms, historic emmigration waves, immigration, changes in death rate etc…)
But here’s a snapshot of the changes that are currently happening.
Certainly quite a bit of pressure on household formations… (20-40 year-olds)
It’s not houses we need to build, but nursing homes.
Ah woud you look at that OW caught in the cross during campaign bulge. Is it any wonder!
What you have posted is what I liken to the conveyor belt. The negative swings or as I say gaps in demographic conveyor belt is the killer blow to the economy and it’s baked in with decisions made by those in the building older demographics, i.e. highly unwise elders.
7,000 homes a year is more than adequate for the net change in population of 10.5k in the year to April 2012. It is also adequate for population growth in 2011 and 2010… in fact, given that many of the 7,000 are one-offs and so will have a higher household size than the standard 2.4 (or whatever it is deemed to be these days), 7,000 is probably still excessive build levels for current population growth.
I have a clue for the ‘experts’. If there was more demand for new housing and credit available to fund its purchase, there would be more new housing being built…
On a serious note, the clueless incompetence of those who reckon the way forward is to go back to building houses - which we’ve plenty of - and sure that’ll bring in the families of those who are building the houses so we’ll need to build houses for them, which will bring in the families of those, etc, etc, etc, genuinely makes me really angry.
The country’s simply screwed if that’s all we can come up with. May as well get it out of the way - go bankrupt, start again and stop pissing around like we are doing.
That might throw up some possibilities. At least for a new wave of commuter exurbs/towns served by fast bus and rail? Realistically, there’s Dublin and there’s Belfast and there’s a bit of Cork (though I think the last census showed near zero population growth in Cork? Or was that Galway?).