Indo: ESRI forecasts house prices will grow by 3%+ from 2009

jost · May 23, 2008, 4:02pm

This was reported a while ago, but the Indo likes to remind us…

However, the Government think-tank is less sure about when the recovery in property prices is likely to start. Economist Alan Barrett says that he believes that previous expectations of a recovery in the second half of this year now seem less likely.

“We are sticking to our forecast that average house prices will fall by between 15pc and 20pc from their 2006 peaks. We had expected that most of these falls would have been seen last year and that this year prices might show a slight 0.7pc increase.”

However, only 10pc of the fall has been recorded and the pace of correction has been slower than expected. Consequently, the 0.7pc rise now seems less likely this year.

As a result of the recent bank moves on mortgage lending, ESRI is now re-evaluating its forecast of a 3.6pc increase for 2009.

Nevertheless Alan Barrett’s colleague David Duffy is still sticking to a forecast of 3pc price growth a year between 2010 and 2015 which is based on Irish-based businesses benefiting from an upturn in the global economy. He forecasts that demand for new homes is likely to average 53,500 a year between now and 2011 and at 48,600 a year between 2012 and 2016. While such demand levels are below the 80,000 levels seen in the period 2003-2006, they are almost double those seen in the period 1991-1996.

Article Link

StoppedClock · May 23, 2008, 4:06pm

ERSI are pointless people in pointless jobs spouting pointless arse.

Even if the above was true what is the point in even saying it.

Shut 'em down.

Blue_Horseshoe · May 23, 2008, 4:08pm

Nice headline, but as the ESRI said themselves, it can only have a chance of happening of a lot of international factors kick in first and very, very soon.

Blue Horseshoe

A_Random_Walk · May 23, 2008, 4:18pm

Are they implying that the ESRI did not notice we were in a credit crunch?

InForADime · May 23, 2008, 4:27pm

Upturn in Europe > Inflationary pressures > Higher ECB rates?

Those bullish nominal price increases would still be below inflation. The ERSI must actually make stuff up - 0.7% increase this year??? When did they think that?

Also they’ve stated a 15-20% drop and effectively say they’ve only dropped c10% so far, leaving them with 5-10% drop yet to happen.

Still though, criticising the ERSI is a bit like a politician accepting the premise of a question, it gives credence; there’s already enough hot-air out there as it is.