Indo: First Dublin auction odds on to beat AMV [Paddy Power]

House expected to sell for MORE than it’s advised MINIMUM value. Shock! Horror! :angry:

Full odds at
paddypower.com/bet?action=go … e_id=13040

Odds on 2010 house prices at
paddypower.com/bet/novelty-b … use-Prices

What a pointless, contrived exercise. But sur’, lets have a go at it! My guess is that the house will sell for 1.7-1.9 million.

On the overall ESRI/PTSB index (I know, I know), 5/2 for any fall of 15% or higher looks pretty good.

That’s excellent. The index is lagging the market so a fall of that magnitude is on the cards. Might be closer to 10-12% though, particularly with the rate rises being pushed back until early next year.

Says a lot doesn’t it…
If someone was going to buy a house now it’s worth pointing them to the House Price Betting page and ask them would they put the mortgage amount on price increases.

Although if you were to buy it might be an idea to help offset the risk of losses by putting some cash on a decline.

Interesting how the shorter odds are for larger declines!

Of course if you wanted a free house just put a cool million on the highest price… think the returns would be 5.5m
Then by the house for well over it’s value but in effect get it for free based on your PP winnings :slight_smile:

:open_mouth:

PP are offering a book on a specific house auction??? WTF?

Shocking odds from Paddy Power seeing as my NAP doesn’t even return any money:

There are two superior houses available beside this within their favourite range asking the same price. (And presumably accepting a lot less seeing as they’ve both been for sale for ages.) The AMV is delusional.

www.myhome.ie/111327

www.myhome.ie/111293

It’s a novelty bet so there is a cap on how much you can bet, perhaps €100 or something like that.

awww, I was thinking of ways the buyer could use this as a hedge. Or the buyer and seller could collude to sell at €999k and split the 12/1 winnings

Anyone know what happened today?

1.55M

irishtimes.com/newspaper/pro … 65352.html

3 bidders, makes sense …

Bidder I

https://www.ronbohmer.com/images/phantom1.jpg

Bidder II

and Bidder III, the mug who finally ended up with the “parcel bomb” when the music stopped.

Blue Horseshoe

Is there a suggestion that the whole thing was rigged?