Indo - IAVI: Economic downturn wipes 50pc off value of homes

[Codify]

LARGE detached family homes in the capital have halved in value in the downturn.

Estate agents admit four- and five-bedroom detached properties in Dublin are now only fetching 50pc of their 2007 prices. This means upwardly-mobile couples who shelled out an average of €1m at the height of the boom years are now sitting in a house worth just €500,000.

The Irish Auctioneers and Valuers Institute (IAVI), which represents auctioneers around the country, says that houses nationally are now worth 40pc less than at the peak.

Connacht has seen the smallest drop in house prices but even these are dramatic. The average two-bedroom townhouse in the region has fallen in value by 27.7pc. Things are much worse in Dublin for struggling homeowners who are seeing themselves plunged further into negative equity as prices have plummeted by half.** But this is all good news for buyers with cash today. **

“These annual results are in line with our expectations for 2009 and consistent with our belief that the average residential property values would decline 40pc to 50pc from peak to trough,” IAVI president Aine Myler said. “The survey results indicate that the market floor is close, if we have not reached it already.”

independent.ie/national-news … 11066.html

and

‘A lot of people my age got sucked in by the hype’

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=27492

MOD EDIT: Other article discussed at the link above…

[BrendanG]

@Codify

“These annual results are in line with our expectations for 2009 and consistent with our belief that the average residential property values would decline 40pc to 50pc from peak to trough,” IAVI president Aine Myler said. “The survey results indicate that the market floor is close, if we have not reached it already.”

Did the IAVI publish a forcast for 2009 a year ago so that we can verify their “expectations”?

Ah well, whatever, the bottoms in folks, time to buy, buy, buy!

[yoganmahew]

Too right BrendanG, I heard it and laughed too.

[spqr64]

We reached the bottom from the IAVI these ae the same people who complained when future shock said houses could fall in value by 30% The same people who have been saying for the last two years that “now is the time to buy” at falls of 10 % 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% and so on and so forth.

Ive news for ya IAVI “YOU AINT SEEN NUTTIN YET” just wait until things really start to bite.

[sharper]

They were actually reasonably pessimistic last year

irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2009/0114/1231738222350.html

The report states that members feel that “the market has probably not bottomed out” and that further reductions of 10.4 per cent in capital values for residential property may be experienced in 2009.

Just over half of estate agents surveyed predicted a recovery in the overall property market in 2010, with 29 per cent of the members of the IAVI expecting it later. About one in 10 responding to the survey say a return to equilibrium will not happen until 2012 or later.

However looking through the news archives there are some amazing discrepancies

January 2006:
rte.ie/business/2006/0118/iavi.html

‘Demand for housing continues to outstrip supply, with double digit average inflation in all house sectors in 2005,’ said CEO Alan Cooke. But he added that the average rate of increase for apartments was lower, ranging for the second-hand sector from 4.8% for one-bedroom unit in Connacht to 9.4% for a two-bedroom unit in Dublin.

The IAVI report said that a shortage in supply of large Dublin second-hand family homes was pushing prices up further. Three- and four- bedroom houses saw the highest average rate of increase, at over 13%.

April 2006:

business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/article703366.ece

THE Irish Auctioneers & Valuers Institute (IAVI) has sold its Realestate.ie property website to Funda, a Netherlands-based company and one of the biggest online property operators in Europe.

IAVI will receive about €1m initially, with a deal expected to be signed tomorrow. It could receive up to €6m ultimately if certain targets are met over the next 10 years.

January 2007:
rte.ie/business/2007/0123/iavi.html

Chief executive Alan Cooke said the withdrawals were the result of ‘overly optimistic’ price expectations from sellers and uncertainty about stamp duty ahead of the Budget.

[whizzbang]

“We are now at the bottom!”
rings bell
https://img130.imageshack.us/img130/2559/bellrx.png

[yelims]

independent.ie/business/pers … 11066.html

Economic downturn wipes 50pc off value of homes

LARGE detached family homes in the capital have halved in value in the downturn.

Estate agents admit four- and five-bedroom detached properties in Dublin are now only fetching 50pc of their 2007 prices.

This means upwardly-mobile couples who shelled out an average of €1m at the height of the boom years are now sitting in a house worth just €500,000.

The Irish Auctioneers and Valuers Institute (IAVI), which represents auctioneers around the country, says that houses nationally are now worth 40pc less than at the peak.

Connacht has seen the smallest drop in house prices but even these are dramatic. The average two-bedroom townhouse in the region has fallen in value by 27.7pc.

Things are much worse in Dublin for struggling homeowners who are seeing themselves plunged further into negative equity as prices have plummeted by half. But this is all good news for buyers with cash today.

The IAVI annual property survey released shows that new two-bedroom townhouses in Dublin are down 36.3pc from their peak. Three-bed townhouses have fallen by 36.9pc and one- and two-bed apartments are down 42.8pc and 42.4pc respectively.

Also in the capital, three- and four-bedroom semis are down 35.3pc and 37.6pc and four- and five-bedroom detached houses are down 42.6pc.

Reductions in the Dublin second-hand homes market are more stark. One- and two-bed apartments are down 46.9pc and 47.8pc; two- and three-bed townhouses have fallen in value by 39.7pc and 41.3pc; and three- and four-bed semis have dropped by 41.4pc and 44.8pc.

The price drops in the rest of the country are also substantial. Three-bed semi-detached homes are down 37.4pc, 31.6pc and 32.8pc from peak prices in Leinster (excluding Dublin), Munster and Connacht respectively.

The IAVI figures, which are based on sale prices achieved, are a more accurate indicator of the market than other surveys, such as the recently released DAFT report which relies on advertised asking prices. The DAFT report put house prices nationally at 30pc lower than peak, pointing to a gap between asking prices and sale prices.

The IAVI survey also reports few sales in 2009 – a year that was described as “perhaps one of the bleakest years the market has ever experienced in this country”.

However, there are signs of recovery with agents reporting an increase in viewings towards the end of last year. Auctioneers in the Dublin area reported enquiries and viewings increased by a quarter and the number of sales closed was up 9pc.

IAVI president Aine Myler called on the Government to fast-track the planned national register of property prices to provide for transparency in the market and to restore consumer confidence, citing a possible bottoming out of the market.

“These annual results are in line with our expectations for 2009 and consistent with our belief that the average residential property values would decline 40pc to 50pc from peak to trough,” she said.

"The survey results indicate that the market floor is close, if we have not reached it already.

notice how they try to spin it near the end

[exiled]

@yelims

“These annual results are in line with our expectations for 2009 and consistent with our belief that the average residential property values would decline 40pc to 50pc from peak to trough,” she said.

"The survey results indicate that the market floor is close, if we have not reached it already.

notice how they try to spin it near the end

She spoke that line on Morning Ireland this morning too. It was unchallenged, was a very short slot. I don’t recall any IAVI member making that prediction.

[whizzbang]

@exiled

@yelims

“These annual results are in line with our expectations for 2009 and consistent with our belief that the average residential property values would decline 40pc to 50pc from peak to trough,” she said.

"The survey results indicate that the market floor is close, if we have not reached it already.

notice how they try to spin it near the end

She spoke that line on Morning Ireland this morning too. It was unchallenged, was a very short slot. I don’t recall any IAVI member making that prediction.

I’m sure they all did… in internal reports.

[jcsmith]

Funny. I don’t ever remember the IAVI saying during the boom years that the ceiling is close, if we haven’t reached it already. I wonder why that is.

[2Pack]

To summarise.

aine myler bottom
bottom myler aine
myler bottom aine
more bottoms than aine myler
bottom looks at aine myler
aine myler looks at bottom

[grumpy]

Auctioneers report 9% fall in house values for Q1 2009
05-May-2009
5th May 2009 – A member survey by the Irish Auctioneers & Valuers Institute (IAVI) has confirmed that value of residential property has dropped by an average of 8.7% nationwide in the first three months of the year.

Conducted amongst IAVI members nationwide, this survey shows that the values of residential property in Dublin declined by an average of 5.6%. In Munster, values dropped sharply by an average of 12%. Meanwhile, in Leinster and Connaught/Donegal, values decreased on average 8.5% and 7.5% respectively.

According to Simon Ensor from the Residential Panel of the IAVI National Council, “These results are based on the experience of our members on the ground are consistent with the findings of our 2008 annual survey.

"It is true that the speed of the depreciation has taken some of our members by surprise, but anecdotal evidence suggests that there is a strong belief that prices have reached, or are very close to the bottom. If there is further depreciation, it is likely to result in an over-correction, which would quickly cause prices to rebound to current values.

It’s becoming an annual event.

iavi.ie/NewsDetail.aspx?rowid=241087

[grumpy]

And while I am at it

IAVI Property Survey 2007
22-Jan-2008
The Irish Auctioneers and Valuers Institute (IAVI) has seen a dramatic fall in property prices in its annual property survey, it announced today.

The worst affected area of the country was Dublin, where residential property prices fell by an average of 10%, with some sectors such as second hand apartments fairing much worse, with falls of up to 17%. Second-hand urban homes saw falls up around 14%, completely wiping out gains made in 2006.

The rest of the country was less badly affected, but still saw price falls sufficient to wipe out most of the gains made in 2006.

The IAVI is predicting further average price falls of around 4.1% in Dublin in 2008, with falls of around 3% in the rest of the country.

IAVI President Robert Ganly was upbeat on the results of the survey, saying that while they made for tough reading, they did show that the worst of the current difficulties in the market had passed:

iavi.ie/NewsDetail.aspx?rowid=130794

[flying_dutchman]

Thanks Grumpy for that bit of comic relief.

Can we agree on a new Irish saying that goes
“When the arse falls out of the bottom”
?
Cause it’s on its way.

[spqr64]

@flying dutchman

Thanks Grumpy for that bit of comic relief.

Can we agree on a new Irish saying that goes
“When the arse falls out of the bottom”
?
Cause it’s on its way.

“You’ll need more than immodium”

Actually an old man I once knew (god rest him) used to have a great saying that was very apt when times were hard. He used to say “When the heels and soles are off your boots you’ll be on yer feet again” quite appropriate given the amount of repos of cars, houses etc and those still to come.

[xman]

anecdotal evidence suggests that there is a strong belief that prices have reached, or are very close to the bottom. If there is further depreciation, it is likely to result in an over-correction, which would quickly cause prices to rebound to current values.

Hi Simon

Any update for us on the over-correction? Should I buy something tomorrow before prices quickly rebound to May 2009 values?

I’d hate to miss my one and only chance to get on de ladder.

[xman]

These annual results are in line with our expectations for 2009 and consistent with our belief that the average residential property values would decline 40pc to 50pc from peak to trough," IAVI president Aine Myler said.

Roysh. Anyaway, here is teh bauld Aine doin her YouTube thang. All interactive and web 2.0 and mixin it up with de yoof like.

I’d suggest leaving some encouraging messages for the IAVI and their mission to arm the public with the truth about the property market, but comments are disabled for some reason.

[Larry]

There was an interview with the lady from IAVI on the 1-news. Three things struck me about what she said.

First, her justification for calling the bottom was that we were now a 40-50% off peak, which was IAVI’s expectation for total falls and so we must be at the bottom now (which seems like an ass-backwards, post-facto, unscientific method of calculation to me). Second, she said she expected a “recovery” in 2010, but didn’t specify what that meant. And third, she said the main threat she saw going forward was that later in the year - “just as the market is recovering” - that IR’s might rise and present a “challenge” to that recovery. [All quotes are as best I can remember them].

So, all in all, the bottom called on the basis of fuzzy maths, a recovery prognosticated on the basis of wishful thinking, and a major threat that’s definitely coming and will almost certainly hammer prices is relegated to a mere coda or afterthought.

[xman]

I presume the ECB will be taking advice from luminaries like the IAVI, Dr T Parlon and Prof I Morton on any monetary policy adjustments potentially detrimental to Irish commuterland shoeboxes.

[ewd3]

Dear Iavi

it’s the empties stoopid

ewd3