Indo - IAVI: Economic downturn wipes 50pc off value of homes … 11066.html


‘A lot of people my age got sucked in by the hype’


MOD EDIT: Other article discussed at the link above…

Did the IAVI publish a forcast for 2009 a year ago so that we can verify their “expectations”?

Ah well, whatever, the bottoms in folks, time to buy, buy, buy!

Too right BrendanG, I heard it and laughed too.

We reached the bottom from the IAVI :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: :laughing: these ae the same people who complained when future shock said houses could fall in value by 30% :unamused: The same people who have been saying for the last two years that “now is the time to buy” at falls of 10 % 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% and so on and so forth.

Ive news for ya IAVI “YOU AINT SEEN NUTTIN YET” just wait until things really start to bite. :smiling_imp:

They were actually reasonably pessimistic last year

However looking through the news archives there are some amazing discrepancies

January 2006:

April 2006:

January 2007:

“We are now at the bottom!”
rings bell … 11066.html

Economic downturn wipes 50pc off value of homes

notice how they try to spin it near the end

She spoke that line on Morning Ireland this morning too. It was unchallenged, was a very short slot. I don’t recall any IAVI member making that prediction.

I’m sure they all did… in internal reports.

Funny. I don’t ever remember the IAVI saying during the boom years that the ceiling is close, if we haven’t reached it already. I wonder why that is.

To summarise.

aine myler bottom
bottom myler aine
myler bottom aine
more bottoms than aine myler
bottom looks at aine myler
aine myler looks at bottom

It’s becoming an annual event. :stuck_out_tongue:

And while I am at it

Thanks Grumpy for that bit of comic relief.

Can we agree on a new Irish saying that goes
“When the arse falls out of the bottom”
Cause it’s on its way.

“You’ll need more than immodium”

Actually an old man I once knew (god rest him) used to have a great saying that was very apt when times were hard. He used to say “When the heels and soles are off your boots you’ll be on yer feet again” quite appropriate given the amount of repos of cars, houses etc and those still to come.

Hi Simon

Any update for us on the over-correction? Should I buy something tomorrow before prices quickly rebound to May 2009 values?

I’d hate to miss my one and only chance to get on de ladder.

Roysh. Anyaway, here is teh bauld Aine doin her YouTube thang. All interactive and web 2.0 and mixin it up with de yoof like.

I’d suggest leaving some encouraging messages for the IAVI and their mission to arm the public with the truth about the property market, but comments are disabled for some reason.

There was an interview with the lady from IAVI on the 1-news. Three things struck me about what she said.

First, her justification for calling the bottom was that we were now a 40-50% off peak, which was IAVI’s expectation for total falls and so we must be at the bottom now (which seems like an ass-backwards, post-facto, unscientific method of calculation to me). Second, she said she expected a “recovery” in 2010, but didn’t specify what that meant. And third, she said the main threat she saw going forward was that later in the year - “just as the market is recovering” - that IR’s might rise and present a “challenge” to that recovery. [All quotes are as best I can remember them].

So, all in all, the bottom called on the basis of fuzzy maths, a recovery prognosticated on the basis of wishful thinking, and a major threat that’s definitely coming and will almost certainly hammer prices is relegated to a mere coda or afterthought.

I presume the ECB will be taking advice from luminaries like the IAVI, Dr T Parlon and Prof I Morton on any monetary policy adjustments potentially detrimental to Irish commuterland shoeboxes.

Dear Iavi

it’s the empties stoopid