Indo - Odds shorten on house price rises this year

Paddy Power odds:
paddypower.com/bet/novelty-b … use-prices

Any opinions on where the betting value is?
11/2 on any decrease in Dublin house prices at end of 2013?

Just put €20 on each of Dublin and National house price decreases for the year. Putting my money where my mouth is so to speak :slight_smile:

(Also remembered to do it on Credit not Debit so it won’t be on my bank statement :slight_smile: )

Ireland house prices

Any decrease 4/1. That’s pretty good odds

By way of reference, here is the thread we had for Paddy Power 2012 Housing Market

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=44756&hilit=paddy+power

Latest CSO index
cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releas … ov2012.pdf

page 5 for Ireland House Prices
Change Nov 11 to Nov 12 = -5.2%

Even a slight improvement in Dec will not put it into positive figures for 2012.

Might put a bet of the 2013 any decrease

If one is holding off on buying a house, should one put a (substantial) bet on a house price increase as a hedge?
Or if buying a house, bet on a decrease? :smiley:

Tempted to stick a larger than usual bet on that.

CSO house price index is used, yes?

July 22nd is the closing date for bets. Is it Dec YoY that they use as the comparison?

Now 3/1! Got my €20 bet in earlier.

Says “Applies to annual figure as provided by CSO”

Closing date may be July but their odds can change at any time til then

Balls, I was waiting for someone to reply. Was going to place €100 on at 4/1.

Tempted to ‘go large’ on this…

He who hesitates

My bets would be on a decrease, why?

The only good evidence I have is the Property Price Register. Compare the volume of sales between Dec 21st 2011 to 16th Jan and Dec 21st 2012 to 16th Jan.

Sales have collapsed, probably due to the expiry of MIR.

Dam…getting this now on the PP site! Bloody Pinsters!

House Prices Betting Unavailable

Sorry, we currently do not offer betting on House Prices

Got in there with a ton at 3/1. Prices bloody better well drop now. If they do, thanks, pinsters! I bought too late for this site to save me money, but this another fifty times or so would make up for it. 8DD

The Paddy Power cheap advertising model works for them yet again. They just take a few small bets at the prices mentioned in the article then close their book. Fair play to anyone who got on a decrease at 4 and 3 to 1-I hate to use the phrase ‘free money’ when it comes to gambling but this was definitely an odds-on bet badly mispriced.

I bloody hope you’re right!

I also can’t see how you’re wrong though.

So I’m guessing The Indo will be running another story tomorrow saying that there was a rush of money to back a decrease :angry:

Heard them advertising during the week that they would have the latest Paddy Powers odds in either the Saturdays or Sundays editions. I’m sure they checked the odds Friday morning and forget to check them again :astonished:

New Headline for the Indo, I wonder if they’ll use it: Odds shorten on house price decreases this year

Odds are back up. Now giving 7/4. I had a punt anyway.

I feel like I missed the bottom of the betting ladder last week but thought I’d better get on now as odds only ever go down :smiling_imp:

7/4 is still great odds, I think. MIR gone, negative equity, property tax, PRSI increase, pay cuts for new public workers, retail closures, end of bail-out chaos - it can surely only go down?

I might double up actually.