Indo: The property market: It's game on as good omens abound

It’s up, up and away! Let the good times roll…
independent.ie/national-news … 23694.html

Marie Hunt, a spokesperson for estate agents CBRE, is quoted. This is the same “expert” who in 2007 said:
“There has been a definite slowdown in the residential sector and that was to be expected. We were never going to have a sitaution where property prices would continue to grow by up to 20 per cent per annum. Property will continue to appreciate but it will be at far more moderate levels…” :angry:
[quotesfromthebubble.blogspot.ie/ … chard.html]
(https://quotesfromthebubble.blogspot.ie/2009/07/marie-hunt-head-of-research-cb-richard.html)

We got a flyer in yesterday asking if we wanted our house valued…“as house prices are increasing significantly”…

I was really hoping that wouldn’t happen until at least my salary increased by 50% to take me back to my 2008 paypacket and we could have snapped up a bargain at the bottom… :angry:

Rise in stamp duty payment points to property pick-up - Louise McBride -> independent.ie/business/iris … 23674.html

We have the Autumn “sales drive” in Dublin dominating the 'Sindo today.
Whatever happened to the 2011 stamp duty figures are not most comparisons year on year?

I guess people should also be hoping that their house value does not increase before a new value based property tax is introduced!

Erm, doesn’t stamp duty not apply to all transactions? Compared with 2010 when FTBs were exempt?

Lol

Pity there isn’t a stamp duty on spin.

The bottom sensers are picking up some interesting emanations as well:

independent.ie/national-news … 23565.html

So we’ve a load of loaded thirty-something ex-pats pouring back, eager to plonk down 2 mill or so to save a bit on school fees.

I can not find any 2012 stamp duty transaction numbers.

The stamp duty figures for 2010 relating to returns in respect of property transactions are 45,387 - see revenue.ie/en/about/publicat … p-duty.pdf.

In 2010 the IBF state there were 27,666 property-related mortgages of which 18,313 related to direct property purchase - see IBF/PwC Mortgage Market Profile ibf.ie/gns/publications/rese … arket.aspx.

In Q1 and Q2 2012 the IBF state there were 5,855 property-related mortgages of which 5,050 related to direct property purchase.

So unless there were nearly 28,000 mortages issued in the last two months or there were a total of 28,000 commercial properties bought in the first eight months of 2012 or this article is nonsensical disgraceful propaganda. Where are the editors to question this material or are the editors pushing its publication?

Stamp duty applies to lots of transactions: property transfers, non-residential purchase, etc.

Of course one way to find out if the property omens are good is to sacrifice an Independent hack and check their entrails.

Hardly the point though, is it?

The point is to sell the idea of a market on the up.
Here in…Luxembourg(?)… I read about the UK market and how it bottomed out after a vociferous and unrelenting media campaign.
This, by and large, has worked with nominal average UK prices falling far, far less than many imagined.
Of course that doesnt tell the whole story, but its the part of the story the media tells and its effect is amplified.

To paraphrase PT Barnum, “Never, ever underestimate the stupidity of the general public.”

Don’t want to speak for jxbr but I think this exactly the point

Make up random stats that no one else can find in the public domain to talk up the market

Good old Marie in 2007. Dispensing little chicken nuggets of her wisdom. Dear oh dear. She has a right pair of brass balls on her fair play.

So the pin will continue to have relevance as long as little gasps of desperation bubble forth.

[quotesfromthebubble.blogspot.com … rie%20Hunt]
(Quotes from the Irish Property Bubble: Marie Hunt)

01/06/05

31/07/06

17/04/07

10/10/07

Rock on Marie XX

Well, yes, but the point I was trying to make is that this is what people believe and what they want to believe.
Remember, 99.99% of the public dont read the Pin.

I think that increased coverage will continue to bolster the market.
People will begin to think that the market is ‘coming back’.
We’ve already had a thread about 92% mortgages where many Pinsters thought that was madness.
Nonetheless, theres appetite for, and apparently availability of, this sort of finance.

These arent gasps of desperation.
These are purposeful (and in the UK so far, successful) attempts to rinse the crash from memory.
One anecdote in the Indo is worth a thousand commonsense analyses on the Pin.

Personally, if I were advising anyone in Ireland about buying, I’d say the ‘sentiment bottom’ will come this year.
There is crash fatigue out in the real world that number crunching Pinsters dont seem to parse.
Finance may be sticky for a few years yet but dont ever, ever, ever underestimate sentiment.

Money talks. Bullshit walks.

Sentiment can be whatever the property shills engender - but it don’t get the deal done.

No funding - no deal.

NWL rubbishes the article here

namawinelake.wordpress.com/2012/ … y-puffery/

I think one poster on here posted an excellent reply not long back chronicling the Indo’s bottom picking since around 2008

You really shouldn’t be so down on the (S)Indo. The new editor of the Indo has today issued a personal message to you all

“The readers of the Independent don’t just buy a newspaper, they tap in to a reliable and trusted news source. Every day, you, our reader, join a community of people who require the highest standards and demand quality journalism.”

So wmight Stephen Rae offer a refund to the c 10,000 home buyers since January this year when the Sindo and Indo went on an all-out “buy now with confidence, we’re at the bottom”. With prices down an average of 6% across the country and the loss on an average €150,000 home being €9,000 or €90m in total which might sound like a lot but it is just half the loss that Independent News and Media declared for the first half of 2012.

The new editor also says “My commitment to you, our reader, is that our overriding emphasis will always be on quality content, insight and fearless opinion.”

So does that mean that Sam Smyth whose last article in the Indo was on 25th May 2012, who has been “ostracised” according to Vincent Browne. Does that mean that after a 3.5 month gap, we might see a new article from Sam?

independent.ie/national-news … 25654.html

Somehow, I think the answer to both is in the immortal words attributed to Ray Burke “will we f**k”

Don’t underestimate the amount of empties too, plus the increase of multi bedroom homes in desirable locations as more siblings sell off the familial homestead once their old dears have passed on.