Inflation watch


#381

Consumer Price Index, Nov 2014
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2014/

% monthly change -0.3%
% annual change +0.1%

Private Rents (table 7)
% monthly change +0.6%
% annual change +8.4%

Local Authority Rents (table 7)
% monthly change +0.0%
% annual change +1.1%


#382

France in outright deflation. Core CPI now minus 0.2pc, y-on-y.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B4j4_2BCQAEuWlR.png


#383

The recent drop in oil prices will soon filter through and could be very deflationary.


#384

It’s great that petrol is so much cheaper now as a result! :cry:


#385

Yes, especially as I have just changed jobs and must drive further to get to work!


#386

I saw the breakdown of the price recently - 90cent of it is tax! - so the non-tax part has actually dropped a reasonable percent!


#387

Isn’t it funny how oil was “transitory” on the way up but not on the way down…
Not Just Oil: Guess What Happened The Last Time Commodity Prices Crashed Like This

It doesn’t matter if you use cheap credit to fund risky investment when the investment takes a battering.


#388

Interesting article but I’m always weary of spurious correlations. They were linked in 2008 but I’d say to seem more empirical evidence with other recessions


#389

I got the sense commodities led the equity sell off on both of the last two occassions (September and now). FTSE was the first major index to follow (having the miners and oil majors). Eventually, others followed.


#390

Interesting line of thought. Produced in full as it’s allowed.

“Bernanke as the Inverse Volcker”


#391

It is interesting, but like most analyses misses a key inflation component - wages. Like in the 1930s, the world is seeing global wage competition. Unlike the 1930s, this is expressed in service costs, rather than simply in finished goods costs.

Without wage increases, there can be no sustained inflation.


#392

most? Id say most could see the plain obvious apart from the inflationista hard money crew


#393

Consumer Price Index, Dec 2014
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … ember2014/

% monthly change -0.4%
% annual change -0.3%

Private Rents (table 7)
% monthly change +0.7%
% annual change +8.0%

Local Authority Rents (table 7)
% monthly change +0.1%
% annual change +0.7%


#394

So we are back in negative inflation with an annual rate of -0.3% following four consecutive monthly drops

Annual average inflation in 2014 was +0.2%

Indo
independent.ie/business/iris … 12082.html

IT
irishtimes.com/business/econ … -1.2066969

RTE
rte.ie/news/business/2015/01 … -december/


#395

It seems that as stuff made in Ireland goes up in price (rents, services, hotels, education etc) and stuff made outside goes down (fuels, clothing, household equipment) - that should translate to strong positive push for nominal GDP growth and real GDP could be additionally amplified by deflation.


#396

Only a few months before i clear out Paddy Power. Offered odds last year of 8/1 on a uk inflation rate below 2% by June 15. Muppets.


#397

Consumer Price Index, Jan 2015
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … nuary2015/

% monthly change -0.8%
% annual change -0.6%

Private Rents (table 7)
% monthly change +1.4%
% annual change +8.8%

Local Authority Rents (table 7)
% monthly change +0.0%
% annual change +0.7%

EDIT: I make the -0.8% monthly drop the largest fall since July 2009


#398

Could the CPI change have anything to do with the higher rents having an adverse impact on people’s disposable income, manifesting itself in a trade down in goods and services?


#399

Consumer Price Index, Feb 2015
cso.ie/en/releasesandpublica … nuary2015/

% monthly change +0.6%
% annual change -0.5%

Private Rents (table 7)
% monthly change +0.9%
% annual change +8.5%

Local Authority Rents (table 7)
% monthly change +0.0%
% annual change +0.7%


#400

Don’t worry about deflation, just enjoy the fall in prices while it lasts

independent.ie/opinion/comme … 28404.html