Inflation watch

#501

Consumer Price Index, February 2020

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexfebruary2020/

% monthly change +0.6%

% annual change +1.1%

The most notable changes in the year were increases in Education (+4.1%), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+3.1%), Transport (+3.0%) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+2.9%). There were decreases in Communications (-9.5%), Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-2.5%), Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-1.0%) and Clothing & Footwear (-1.0%).

Consumer Prices in February, as measured by the CPI, increased by 0.6% in the month. During February of last year, prices rose by 0.8% in the month. The most significant monthly price changes were increases in Clothing & Footwear (+4.2%), Transport (+1.6%) and Health (+1.1%). There were decreases in Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (-1.3%), Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (-0.4%) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-0.1%).

Private Rents (table 7)

% monthly change +0.3%

% annual change +3.9%

Local Authority Rents (table 7)

% monthly change +0.0%

% annual change +5.6%

#502

Consumer Price Index, January 2021

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexjanuary2021/

% monthly change +0.1%

% annual change -0.2%

The most notable changes in the year were decreases in Clothing & Footwear (-3.4%), Transport (-2.3%), Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-2.3%) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-2.1%). There were increases in Health (+3.4%), Restaurants & Hotels (+3.2%), Recreation & Culture (+0.8%) and Miscellaneous Goods & Services (+0.3%).

Consumer Prices in January, as measured by the CPI, increased by 0.1% in the month. During January of last year, prices fell by 0.7% in the month. The most significant monthly price changes were increases in Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+3.8%) and Miscellaneous Goods & Services (+0.8%). There were decreases in Clothing & Footwear (-2.5%) and Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-0.7%).

Private Rents (table 7)

% monthly change +0.3%

% annual change -2.5%

Local Authority Rents (table 7)

% monthly change +0.0%

% annual change +1.5%

#503

Cassandra-on-Twitter-It-s-like-the-markets-forget-Jay-Powell-is-Jay-Powell-They-have-to-see-him-or-they-forget-So-we-have-an-Alzheimer-s-POTUS-AND-an-Alzheimer-s-market-We-have-a-barbell-society-AND-government-
Cassandra-on-Twitter-It-s-like-the-markets-forget-Jay-Powell-is-Jay-Powell-They-have-to-see-him-or-they-forget-So-we-have-an-Alzheimer-s-POTUS-AND-an-Alzheimer-s-market-We-have-a-barbell-society-AND-government-.png840x477 58 KB

Burry cleared his twitter

other, now deleted, tweets

The US government is inviting inflation with its MMT-tinged policies. Brisk Debt/GDP, M2 increases while retail sales, PMI stage V recovery. Trillions more stimulus & re-opening to boost demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket. #ParadigmShift https://t.co/kNT4memOVt pic.twitter.com/Bdw1CDn3Yf

— Cassandra (@michaeljburry) February 20, 2021

“Throughout these years the structure was quietly building itself up for the blow. Germany’s #inflationcycle ran not for a year but for nine years, representing eight years of gestation and only one year of #collapse.” Written in 1974 re: 1914-1923. 2010-2021: Gestation.

— Cassandra (@michaeljburry) February 20, 2021

He also linked the folllowing book
https://recision.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/jens-parsson-dying-of-money-24.pdf

Read on WSB here, also says that he and Buffet have repositioned their portfolios to consumer staples and essentials, inflation hedging,

I’ve a hard on for US equities, regardless.

#504

I seen yesterday he tweeted last time I was told I didn’t warn you but I did. This time I’m warning you via twitter so there is a record.

Not exact-quote.

#505

Shit. Here in EU too?

Have most of my (probably never to be used) house deposit in cash right now.

#506

Consumer Price Index, February 2021

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexfebruary2021/

% monthly change +0.4%

% annual change -0.4%

The most notable changes in the year were decreases in Clothing & Footwear (-6.8%), Transport (-2.7%), Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-2.7%) and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (-1.9%). There were increases in Restaurants & Hotels (+3.2%), Health (+2.6%), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+1.0%) and Education (+0.2%).

Consumer Prices in February, as measured by the CPI, increased by 0.4% in the month. During February of last year, prices rose by 0.6% in the month. The most significant monthly price changes were increases in Transport (+1.1%) and Clothing & Footwear (+0.6%). There were decreases in Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (-0.5%) and Miscellaneous Goods & Services (-0.2%).

Private Rents (table 7)

% monthly change +0.2%

% annual change -2.5%

Local Authority Rents (table 7)

% monthly change +0.0%

% annual change +1.5%

#507

Varadkar’s daily missive is about inflation and higher interest rates

Prepare for rise in interest rates and price inflation, Varadkar warns

Tánaiste and Minister for Business Leo Varadkar has said the Republic must be prepared for a rise in interest rates that could make the State’s vast borrowing for the pandemic more expensive.

He said the State is “overdue” a period of price inflation, which could be followed by higher interest rates. In an interview with The Irish Times, Mr Varadkar said he “fears” the impact of inflation on the Irish economy, especially if it pushes up the cost of borrowing.

“It’s been so long since we’ve experienced it that we are overdue. We need to prepare for this possibility and interest rates going up as a consequence. I don’t think enough economists are talking about this. With so much quantitative easing, Government borrowing and low interest rates for so long, it has to be on our risk register,” he said.

Inflation worries

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe recently issued a similar warning.

Prepare for rise in interest rates and price inflation, Varadkar warns (irishtimes.com)

Paddy's Day 2021
#508

Remember I kept tellin’ yis to all PREPARE… remember? Ah, them were the days.

In line with the Canadian leak too.

#509

Dublin has climbed seven places from 46th to 39th in a list of the world’s most expensive cities to live in, according to a new cost of living report.

The annual report compiled by Mercer ranks 209 cities worldwide based on the cost of housing, transportation, food and entertainment among others criteria, with New York City used as a baseline comparison.

Dublin’s expensive rental prices have led to the cost of living in the city increasing relative to the rest of the world’s cities. Many Western European cities have also seen a cost of living increase due to the strength of the Euro against the US Dollar.

#510

I nipped into M&S to grab a tomato and basil chicken pasta for lunch the other day-it appears to be about half the size of when I first started eating them but still costs €4.80. One does wonder about the seemingly over-generous PUP rate of €350, its possible transition to UBI, and the likely extremely high, if not hyper, inflation on the way. Is this conditioning people to believe they’re doing alright when their future payment is worth less than €100 in real terms? One certainty is that the €350 won’t be rising for many years come what may…
https://seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3706492-kyle-bass-actual-inflation-rate-is-around-12?

#511
#512
#513

“Overall, Bank staff now expect inflation to rise materially further in the near term, temporarily reaching 4% in 2021 Q4 and 2022 Q1, 1½ percentage points higher than in the May projection,” the bank said in its monetary policy report.

The Bank’s Monetary Policy Report said the temporary rise in the consumer price index is primarily due to rising energy and other goods prices, which are set to moderate in the medium term to bring inflation back toward its 2% target.

Building materials, tradesmen, oil, petrol/diesel prices, impacts of the container price rises. All of these can be seen to impact day to day living costs in 2021.

#514

Every empire and great power ends with hyperinflation. The US and the West will be no different. The question is how far down the path are we. It could be that the U.K. will be the canary in the coal mine. I can’t see them balancing their budget any time soon. They sold all their gold reserves too at, I may add, the lowest price in world history.

#515

Paddy did the same thing at the same time.

2011

#516

Consumer Price Index, July 2021

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexjuly2021/

% monthly change +0.4%

% annual change +2.2%

The most notable changes in the year were increases in Transport (+7.9%), Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (+5.3%), Restaurants & Hotels (+3.1%) and Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+1.3%). There were decreases in Clothing & Footwear (-7.1%), Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-0.9%) and Miscellaneous Goods & Services (-0.4%).

Consumer Prices in July, as measured by the CPI, increased by 0.4% in the month. During July of last year, prices fell by 0.2% in the month. The most significant monthly price changes were increases in Transport (+2.6%) and Restaurants & Hotels (+0.8%). There were decreases in Clothing & Footwear (-6.8%) and Health (-0.8%).

Private Rents (table 7)

% monthly change +0.3%

% annual change +3.1%

Local Authority Rents (table 7)

% monthly change +0.0%

% annual change -4.2%

#517
#518

The sad reality is this is good for Ireland, and bad for the likes for those countries such as Germany, that were sensible and ran a trade surplus.
All about timing. Lets hope there isnt another credit crunch.

#519

It follows on from data released earlier this summer by Eurostat in relation to housing costs. Ireland is massively above the entire bloc of member states, at 77.7% higher than the EU average.

Eurostat includes the likes of rent, maintenance, utility bills and repairs in its list of housing costs, and Ireland is only behind Switzerland, a non-EU member that the statistics body included for comparison purposes, along with the Nordic countries.

There’s that ‘cheap money’ at work again

#520

Cheap Money Makes Things Expensive.

CMMTE Theory, with the competing and less refined CMMSE Theory (Cheap Money Makes Shit expensive) - research funded by the Life Is Cheap Trust.

Where do I co-collect my noble prize as one of a team of leading economists? :icon_beer: