Instead of European Bailout, Some Call Default Better Option

NY Times
nytimes.com/2010/11/23/busin … .html?_r=1

newstalk.ie/news/8german-pm- … tors-sh31/

newstalk.ie/news/2uk-mep-say … endence26/

bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-2 … -lynn.html

Unfortunately we know the answer to that…

what did morgan keely Lenny asnd cowen like being tickled and praised by their Europeam masters?

Lenny always says our European partners say this is the way to go so obviously we must then do what they say

the 2 brians without a brain appear more and more like stupid puppets with all the strings being pulled by the ECB and the irish banks

Does anyone have access to the ‘CMA Market Data’ table showing the probability of default? It used to be free but is now password protected.

Last time I checked, the chances of Greece defaulting was north of 50%, Ireland was above 30% - but that was in late September *which is a lifetime ago! *

Interesting point in the NYT article about how the bigger European shareholders in the IMF include countries who are most exposed if we were to default. They want to inflict the pain on the Irish taxpayer rather than see a default that would disrupt their own banks and pension funds. Nobody has our interests at heart.

Still, it does reinforce the point Sommerville/Lucey/others have been making: the EU/ECB/IMF have reason to be terrified of us so, weird as it may seem, we have a lot of power right now. If we take their ‘bailout’ at high interest rates we are bunched. If we don’t take it, we are bunched - but so are they.

So: ECB takes on the banks and we’ll deal with the sovereign debt. Deal?

~Delete.

Permission refused.

Sorry, can’t resist!

Looks like it’s about 38% chance of default, if I’m reading Constantin Gurdgiev’s blog post correctly
trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/11/economics-231110-how-much-will.html

39.73

Thanks - watching Vincent Browne’s programme last night, it’s a wonder it’s not well above 50%