Ireland - Real unemployment rate at 53%


#1

The current hidden unemployment is already around 40%, it might improve slightly over the next 6-12 months, however it would take years and years to go back to pre-Covid-19 levels.


Unemployment rises to 14.9%
Unemployment rises to 14.9%
#2

Are you counting emergency wage subsidisation scheme recipients as de-facto unemployed to get to 40% figure and/or maybe some other less than clear figures?


Unemployment rises to 14.9%
#3

Yes, I count all the governmental support schemes, since de-facto all these people are now unemployed, and the government won’t be able to support them indefinitely.


#4

December 2019 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in December 2019 was 185,300, down -1,100 monthly.

This is the lowest rate since Jan 2008 when it was 179,700.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregisterdecember2019/

There were 36,816 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in December 2019 which represents 20.2% of the total Live Register (was 41,751 in December 2018 or 20.9%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:

November 2019 was 48,737. November 2018 was 54,104

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.

Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 37,875 in August 2019; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:

If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 9.5%

[185,300 (December 2019) + 48,737 (November 2019)/ 2,454,900 per Labour Force Survey Q3 2019]


Unemployment rises to 14.9%
#5

January 2020 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in December 2019 was 183,900, down -1,300 monthly.

This is the lowest rate since Jan 2008 when it was 179,700.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregisterjanuary2020/

There were 36,355 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in January 2020 which represents 19.8% of the total Live Register (was 41,240 in January 2019 or 20.97)

Live Register Activation Programmes:

December 2019 was 48,555. December 2018 was 53,550

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.

Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 37,875 in August 2019; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:

If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 9.5%

[183,900 (January 2020) + 48,555 (December 2019)/ 2,454,900 per Labour Force Survey Q3 2019]


#6

February 2020 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in February 2020 was 182,500, down -1,400 monthly.

This is the lowest rate since Jan 2008 when it was 179,700.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregisterfebruary2020/

There were 36,606 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in February 2020 which represents 20.0% of the total Live Register (was 41,264 in February 2019 or 21.0%)

Live Register Activation Programmes:

January 2020 was 48,329. January 2019 was 52,361

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.

Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 37,875 in August 2019; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:

If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 9.4%

[182,500 (February 2020) + 48,329 (January 2020)/ 2,454,900 per Labour Force Survey Q3 2019]


#7

#8

March 2020 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in March 2020 was 207,200, up 24,400 monthly.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregistermarch2020/

A further 283,037 were in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and 25,104 were in receipt of the Temporary COVID-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme.

This brought the total to 513,350.

There were 36,607 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in March 2020 (was 40,759 in March 2019)

Live Register Activation Programmes:

February 2020 was 48,462. February 2019 was 51,648

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.

Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 37,875 in August 2019; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:

If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 22.9%

[513,350 (March 2020) + 48,462 (February 2020)/ 2,454,900 per Labour Force Survey Q3 2019]


#9

I wondered would your broad jobless figure come in over 20% and it has - I think we have found the economic “surge”.


#10

I know this story is 3 days old, which I guess classifies it as a Friday Forget.

¿ 25%! ?


#12

April live register figures are out Friday so we’ll see how close to 25% we are then


#13

Coronavirus payments unsustainable, warns Doherty, as over-70s advised to avoid shops

Almost 600,000 people are now receiving the special Covid-19 unemployment payment

he current level of payments for people who have lost all or part of their income due to the coronavirus restrictions are unsustainable in the long-term, Minister for Protection Regina Doherty has said.

There now 598,000 people receiving the special Covid-19 unemployment payment - an increase of about 7,000 in the last week. The department said this was on top of about 205,000 on the live register in receipt of job seeker benefit.

In addition, workers in 52,000 companies or businesses are having their pay funded in full or in part under the Government’s temporary Covid-19 wage subsidy scheme.

It is understood that about 427,000 workers who have received at least one subsidised payment.

This means there are about 1.23 million workers relying on State support for all or part of their income.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-payments-unsustainable-warns-doherty-as-over-70s-advised-to-avoid-shops-1.4245289?mode=amp


#14

April 2020 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in April 2020 was 216,900, up 7,500 monthly.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregisterapril2020/

A further 602,107 were in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and 425,204 were in receipt of the Temporary COVID-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme.

This brought the total to 1,244,211.

There were 36,297 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in April 2020 (was 39,683 in April 2019)

Live Register Activation Programmes:

March 2020 was 51,433. March 2019 was 51,349

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.

Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 37,875 in August 2019; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:

If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 52.8%

[1,244,211 (April 2020) + 51,433 (March 2020)/ 2,454,900 per Labour Force Survey Q3 2019]


#15

Wow 52.8% of labour force either unemployed, on job activation schemes, temporarily unemployed, or wages being subsidised


#16

Wow indeed. And that’s just what you have counted so far. There are thousands more at risk and similar that will not have qualified from many of the measures so far announced.

We are killing a lot with this lock-down. So scary.


#17

{gulp} Topic title updated. :ninja:


#18

What do we call this, unemployment does not seem right, what about super-extra-broad joblessness or just simply Toast?


#19

Limbonomics.


#20

The massive unknown is how many of the 1m people on Pandemic Unemployment Payment and Temporary COVID-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme will return to normality?


#21

There is Toast and there is Burnt Toast.