Ireland - Real unemployment rate at 53%


#29

Just so the problem is not understated and sorry I don’t have the figures. We need to add number for real unemployment (53% of workforce) + number on pension support + number who are employed as civil servants gives a total number of dependent on state for social welfare / wages / pension.


#30

As I see it this has a decent chance of being the greatest depression the world has faced in 300 years (since the gold standard was popularized). There is worldwide plague, and depression at present. There may be substantial areas of famine in the months to come as well.

We are going to need an FDR style new deal. Relief Reform Recovery.
Government borrowing to build infrastructure that will pay for itself is IMHO key in this.
I see it as killing 2 birds with one stone. Its cheap to hire people to do infrastructure when there’s high unemployment. Cheaper still if your saving paying a social welfare payment.

Some suggestions:-

  • Would it pay to insulate and fit solar panels on homes if the cost was collected back as taxes over time? (Genuinely I am asking this as a question) It could be cost neutral or even save people money in the long run. People could afford the extra taxes from the money they save on gas and electricity bills and as a country we won’t have to pay fines for exceeding CO2 limits. As I see it we will need apprenticeship training programs in the early days of this to ramp up the number of qualified people working in this area to do this.

  • A government program where we built a lot of houses and sell them for what it cost to build them might be of use. Key is can we sell them for what it costs to build.
    We would reduce competition in the rental market. We would have a substantial saving on HAP as a result. Could it pay us to do this? (Again a genuine question).

Obviously this if practical would only amount to a tiny part of the solution.


#31

Good ideas, but borrowing more just leaves more debt for the future generations to pay back, Governments should take back the power to issue currency and spend thir own debt free money instead.


#32

Faith in money is a peculiar thing. I think a huge thing part of encouraging that belief is government willingness to accept it for the payment of taxes.


#33

I wonder would it be legal in the euro zone to allow tax credits to be traded the way money is. Governments issue them without having to borrow and promise to accept them for the payment of taxes.

Explain to people that whatever’s kept in circulation is free money the Government doesn’t have to borrow or pay interest on as long as tax credits are not used to pay taxes. Your doing your bit for your country by keeping these in circulation but you can always pay your taxes with them. At the least you would be giving the government an interest free loan.

Companies that pay taxes in Ireland can take them at no risk. Hence firms that pay taxes in Ireland are supported. You probably couldn’t buy an iPhone with them as Apple don’t pay enough taxes in Ireland.

You’d need a banking system to store these. Lets make banks that take them the safest in the world to encourage their use. Put rules on banks they have to keep a high % reserve of deposits of these tax credits. The idea might catch on if there’s a super stable banking system there could be international demand for Irish tax credits. The collapse of the money side of a bank should not effect the tax credit side of the bank and vice versa. Tax credits loaned by the bank would initially be used to promote economic activity as I could see a plumber who pays taxes in Ireland being willing to accept them but they probably couldn’t be used to pay for a foreign holiday.

I fully expect to be torn apart for how idiotic impractical deluded ridiculous and illegal an idea this is.


#34

At best it would take us up to 4-5 years to go back to pre-Covid-19 unemployment levels, more likely it would take us up to 6-10+ years to achieve that.


#35

Considering its governments that make the laws, they could legislate to legalise this if they wanted to.
Financial institutions (banks) may lobby against it though.


#36

Not sure we can treat the 425,000 on the temporary scheme as unemployed. Many are working away at home, busy as ever. It is the employer who has applied for the scheme because it was opened up so widely, and sure ‘it was going’. Many employees probably never even twigged they were put onto the scheme.
What percentage that is, I don’t know, Might be 1/3, might be a half.


#37

All people receiving any kind of direct or indirect governmental financial support are now de facto unemployed (53%). Yes, it’s highly likely that the government won’t be able to keep these schemes going for a very long time.


#38

Did large operations such as Ryanair apply for the emergency wage subsidisation scheme back in March?

Those who are losing their jobs are a combination of probation/fixed-term contract ends, resignations and redundancies, the company said.

Ryanair has operated less than 1% of their normal flight schedules during April, May and June.


#39

66%

Including people on April’s official unemployment count, the figures mean that 1.26 million, or a new record of 66% of the entire private sector workforce, are receiving some sort of Covid-19 or unemployment payment.

Src: https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/ireland-to-continue-in-acute-emergency-maybe-for-years-1000312.html

Seems you lot need to tone down the optimism in this thread. :icon_neutral:


#40

#41

Looks like the C19 payment is to be extended until August. Shall we end up with 70%+ by the end of it all?


#42

66%??
Thanks for posting that, I had been wondering what they mean by ‘all in this together’


#43

Should we be guiding for 70%, what do ya think?


#44

May 2020 Live Register

The seasonally adjusted Live Register figure in May 2020 was 226,400, up 8,900 monthly.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lr/liveregistermay2020/

A further 543,164 were in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment and 36,344

were in receipt of the Temporary COVID-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme.

This brought the total to 1,140,579 (excluding overlaps).

There were 36,516 casual and part-time workers on the Live Register in May 2020 (was 38,396 in May 2019)

Live Register Activation Programmes:

April 2020 was 56,433. April 2019 was 51,083

Persons on activation programmes are not counted as part of the monthly Live Register.

Figures available go back to Jan 2007. Lowest ever was 37,875 in August 2019; highest was 89,704 in Mar 2015.

Broad Jobless Rate:

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lfs/labourforcesurveylfsquarter12020/

If we add the total Live Register rate + Live Register Activation Programmes, the broad jobless rate stands at 48.5%

[1,140,579 (May 2020) + 56,433 (April 2020)/ 2,467,900 per Labour Force Survey Q1 2020]


#45

My gut feeling on all of this stuff (economically) is sort of pessimistic, partly because things felt a bit phony/inflated even before the C19 asteroid.

However, if that wasn’t the case (i.e. things were solidly “good” before the pandemic) why can things not rebound fairly quickly once stuff reopens and businesses can return to normal?


#46

The main issue will be down to many people (AKA Consumers) having less spending power than before, people will also be wary of unnecessary journeys to the shops. They will be restricted to “logistical shopping”, in other words, get in, find what’s needed, pay, get out.

The “retail therapy” that accounts for much of the impulse buying will be gone for a long time.

Repeat that pattern across all sectors and you will find that the rebound will stop significantly lower than the previous levels.


#47

Employment figures in the States have bounced back in a big way today.

Presumably there will be something similar here in due course?


#48

I’d expect so alright.
Although as dolanbaker alludes, even if you get a tremendous bounce, but it’s only 90% (say) of the drop, you still drop a lot of economic activity.

I suspect the rate of recovery will maybe tend to slow down too? The longer jobs aren’t in the system, the harder it is to restore them, and the first ones restored will also be the industries most obviously going to return as soon as restrictions eased (e.g. to take two small examples, dentists, opticians)