Ireland: Saved by the euro


#1

themalaysianinsider.com/inde … y-the-euro


#2

WTF ??? :open_mouth:

Where is Bank of Ireland economist Dan McLaughlin in our hour of need …or Austin Hughes . Are they not our foul weather friends too ??


#3

Dr Dan is more of a domestic economist. Even BOI knew the world just wasn’t ready for Dan’s economics 101.


#4

But surely the lowly Malaysians would be truly impressed at the opinions of a CHIEF Economist rather than one of his minions . They deserve to be treated properly by BoI who seem to have sent the receptionist out to talk to them .

Michael is a Senior Economist ( for domestic consumption anyway) and not an Economist .


#5

It’s true though.

The € is the reason the liquidator has not been appointed. I’m happy with that, and will vote accordingly. And so will the Nation.

In a generation, Ireland will be a case study in how not to run an economy. The lessons in economics and politics will be well understood for another generation. The process will begin again then, and asset price bubbles will re-emerge to a new willing populace. Education is our only hope and defence.

Germany will also be a study in economics, and if you substitute the word ‘export’ for ‘property’ they’ll read similarly.

The debate may, after all, have nothing to do with Capitalism, Socialism, Communism, Fascism, Bolloxism, LaissezFaireism, Gombeenism. It’s about human behaviour, and how we regulate / control same. Which is badly. That’s where we need to focus our attention.

Answers on a postcard …


#6

I’ve noticed that the insane chatter about leaving the Euro that was floating in the ether a few months ago has largely disappeared.


#7

No, I’m still here…

Just waiting for the end of 3Q 2009…that is when the real fun will start if anything is going to happen this time around. Still think that there is a 30% probability that there will be a major ERM style meltdown of the Euro before all the rubble has settled.

Not that the other 70% scenarios are any more palatable…

Hello ushinawareta jūnen, euro style…

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble


#8

one could argue that we wouldnt be in this mess if we stayed out of the euro, mainly because we had super low interest rates for so long XD

who knows what could have happened if we stayed out of the euro. with the punt, we had high interest rates, therefore we could have become ‘Iceland’ if we became the deposit account of choice in the carry trade dealings. no doubt our esteemed banks would have facilitated this very move.

While I dont agree with the Malasyian article because we could only have pulled the finacial chicanery by being in the euro, the political will (enforced regulation) was not there to have stopped the banks from participating in the potential ‘carry trade’ .

needless to say, our ‘competetivness’ would have gone up with a devaluation of the currency.


#9

You beat me to it thingfish,I would argue the Euro destroyed Ireland,as without it the property bubble would never have happened,perhaps someone can help list the benefits of having the euro - apart from the bubble and the bankruptcy of the banking system and its government?


#10

Like it didn’t happen in the UK or Iceland with their independent currencies? Gimme a break! :unamused:

The western world was sloshing with cheap credit - being outside the euro we’d have had a similar bubble, maybe not as high, but we’d be in even bigger doo-dah right now.


#11

FF used every means at their disposal to overprime the economy and make for a feel-good factor in advance of the last elections.
increasing old age pensions, medical cards for all, increasing social welfare. adding thousands of jobs in the public sector.
The Regulator has been shown to have been working toward the wishes of the builder’s party. Enforce salary multiples for mortgages, query book-keeping in Anglo - not on your nelly.
Imagine if FF had an “at arms length” total control of monetary policy courtesy of the no so independent Central Bank/Financial Regulator.


#12

Am I the only one who read that and had a flashback to those naked Clowen pictures.

-Rd


#13

Indeed.

Anyone that argues that the irish government would have calmed the boom if they had more control seems to miss the obvious fact that they used every tool available to stoke it. Keynesian counter-cyclical policies anyone - not FF, that’s for sure.

Back when the celtic paper tiger looked real (i.e markets were stupid), irish interest rates would have tracked euro rates, now they’d be another factor killing the economy (as would the unavoidable currency collapse).


#14

FT’s Brussels bureau chief links to the pin (this topic) in the 1st paragraph of his recent blog article…

blogs.ft.com/brusselsblog/