Irish banks may need life-support as property prices crash

from everyone’s favourite Telegrph journo

He is like fucking animal farm is that eejit, if it were a similar sized economy …but non eurozone… and with a housing bubble like say Singapore he would have nothing to say

Here are his next 10 or so articles , summarised for the indigent .

non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad
non euro good euro bad

Without wanting to antagonise you anymore 2Pack, isn’t the eurozone issue crucial to how things will ultimately pan out for this country?

Many countries have gone through bubbles and crashes, but with control over fiscal policy to help pull them out. Ireland, without this control, is really in uncharted territory.

I have no idea how this will pan out, but some politicans on the fringe in Italy have been calling to leave the Euro for sometime. It wouldn’t be a surprise to hear that here too, now that the gravy train has left the station.

40 something% of our exports are to the EU. Or were in 2006 according to the CSO:
cso.ie/statistics/botmaintrpartners.htm
(rant - why can’t we have up to date statistics!!!)

As can be seen from Japan’s case, fiscal policy is inadequate to either stop a bubble or to fix it afterwards. The US is starting to discover the same thing in the case of fixing it.

Zimbabwe is still in control of its fiscal policy, as is Hungary and look at the hash the two of them are making of it. (Okay, it’s a little unfair to put the two countries in the same sentence, but one is an extreme case and the other could easily have happened to Ireland - the central bank in Hungary is now tied in knots - on the one hand, they need to raise interest rates to control inflation, on the other, consumer debt is largely denominated in Swiss francs and exports will suffer with a stronger HUF, so they can neither inflate (revalue) nor deflate easily).

From a personal point of view, being in the euro means to me a stable currency with no chance of the gubbernment being able to beggar me to dig out their friends the developers and the banks, oh and the offshore billionaires.

It is, yer man is a little england bigot who is viscerally anti Euro and Eurozone though . Protection of the City of London and all that .

I agree flash, but thats a whole new debate towards which little england will not contribute anything useful . Nor will some of our own bigoted nationalsts for exactly the same reason that bigoted britishness is pretty damn useless .

These are the self same people who inflicted years of abject misery on NI with their blinkered worldview in which Britain is centre and left and right …of the whole universe mind… and in which any other polity or economy is *ceteris parabus *a failure.

I am not as viscerally opposed to a common currency with the UK as yer man evidently is to any form of commonality ( meaning equality, can’ t have that ) with Europe.

Mind you Canny would Crap a Cadence of Crowing Canaries at an overnight 6.5% mortgage rate in that scenario so I cannot see us doing so quite yet, can you Flash ??

We would also lose that teat from which our banks drink much liquidity nowadays, the ECB .

Nor is it feasible for us, in my opinion, to free float . Maybe we should butter up to the Swiss , what what 8)

So yes lets debate it but NO do not let us get dragged into it by the bloody Telegraph, * please*!. If we followed their narrow logic we would probably have about 250k persons interned in Long Kesh to this very day for myriad outrages against decent jolly britishness :frowning:

But most of that article is either quoting Morgan Kelly or a Fitch guy. Forget about the English journo. The remarks from M Kelly are pretty eyebrow raising, albeit that we’ve had them before…

I agree with the general idea that it’s good the govt can’t inflate away my euros as they would love to do.

I think it’s likely however that they will still find a way to make me pay for their friends. I expect a good deal of private construction debt to be transformed indirectly into public debt over the next few years through various schemes. The banks bailout, they will probably not even attempt to hide.

Crikey 2Pack.

While I agree with some of you sentiment, I think you are coming across as very anti British, which is very unfair - the article quotes Irish people in their summation of Irish problems.

Re the City - why exactly would it want to become part of the Euro zone? Given that NY, London and Hong Kong are the financial centres of the World (you may have seen the recent Economist article on the same) why would it want to cede that to a pan European base?

Re economies in general - I don’t believe there is an basis for a “one size fits all” approach. Much as I disagree with the current BOE interest rates policy, I am somewhat comforted by the fact that they can make those decisions for in the interest of the UK alone.

I find your jarring anti Englishness offensive tbh - maybe I should bring up some IRA atrocities in a thread?

Exactly - it’s got nowt to do with nowt.

LOL its not anti english , only anti a certain class of James Goldsmith oid tendency of english politics , John Major called them bastarrds IIRC.

Thats to say any more than condemning the ira would make an english person anti irish per se , we are none of us monolithic societies .

Pure Visceral Bigotry can often sound* frightfully *reasonable, remember Enoch Powell if you will.

pritchard has noticed the consequence of being a noted negativist on the euro, he even blogged about it here

blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/a … 7/euro.htm

He even tried a new phrase there stating ( correctly ) that the eurozone is not an “optimal currency area” , what he forgot to mention is that many of the MOST sub optimal aspects are likely to leave and the LESS sub optimal elements are likely to acquiesce to optimalism …or leave .

but the Uk itself is hardly an optimal currency area either …and should the Scots threaten to bugger off with whats left of their oil 8) ?? 8)

If It’s anti establishment then I’m full square with you, and indeed the rabid anti European-ism of some Brits grates on me well, greatly; in general though I’ve found the Brits a fairly affable bunch.

However on economic surrender to Euroland - “Never, never, never”!

Control over fiscal policy can be more a curse than a blessing.

Think of Zimbabwe, Uruguay and Argentina’s recent history.

Ordinary businessmen and consumers in those regions have had reason to regret that their currency was nationally-controlled rather than international.

Small nations with nationally-controlled currencies will tend towards hyperinflation and great instability periodically.

Periodic currency crises will be the norm if we return to a national currency. The Irish are, unfortunately, considerably better at tennis and ice hockey than we are at currency management.

Sweden have shown remarkable ability at currency management, and most other types of management. Our strengths are cough different.

I have no problem per se giving the Scots back their oil, if in return they give me back my tax money :wink:

They were all where some idiot politician thought he knew better than a central banker or where the president was clinically insane.

The ECB is modelled on the Bundebank which itself was deliberately created partially to stop the likes of Hitler gaining power ever again…by economic means .

And a Scotsman I know would simply tell the English to take all their nuclear waste back with them too or pay to 'host it ’ …mainly with an IOU of course 8)

It hought that was what the Irish Sea was for :frowning:

That should read monetary policy BTW. Although there are limits that the government must observe even with fiscal (budgetary) policy with the Stability and Growth Pact.

We joined the euro because we knew we would get lower interest rates.
Joining the euro only poured oil on a blazing fire.

We joined at exactly the wrong time for the Irish economy, even our Central bank bleated on for years that we joined at the wrong time in the cycle.

Our economy is probably a decent reflection of where the US is at, we have come down alot faster then they have and so have caught them up on the way down - they may be a few months ahead of us but that is all.

Another 6 months of current and the banking system will be creaking.

The Fed expects some banks to fail, clearly todays massive give away means they are getting messages that a major bank may go under.

Is it possible that Pritchard is attempting to talk down even further, the share prices of the Irish banks with a view to making them takeover targets.

I mean its well known that a lot of international investors have been selling and shorting irish financial shares over the last year. Any further price cuts and they could become takeover targets.

Could Pritchard be doing some investors a favour by attempting to lower those share prices with negative talk in his column?

Why would any foreign banks buys Irish banks, what are you getting exposure to ? Irish banks remain expensive by UK standards, look at the PEs of major UK banks.

Hedge funds have been shorting all banks, not just irish ones.

If one excludes like miners and the oil companies the FT 200 have fallen fairly spectacularly…the ISEQ fall is not so dramatic compared to these.

Lots of FT 200 on PEs of 6,7,8