Will we see a Northern Rock style Bank run here?
- Yes
- No
0 voters
I have brazenly pinched this link from AN Other forum. It is an excellent article from Morgan Kelly at UCD.
I fail to see any way out of this mess 
Bubbles in Real Estate Markets the correlation between real estate busts and banking crisis; the role of lax regulation and disaster myopia. Well documented, thoroughly recorded, fact based and completely ignored. Because the lesson of history is that we ignore the lessons of history.
I wonder why?
realestate.wharton.upenn.edu/newsletter/bubbles.pdf
landecon.cam.ac.uk/research/reuag/maastricht/pdf/3_Koha-Marianoa-Pavlov-Phanga-Tana-Wachter.pdf
bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap21e.pdf
A very sobering read indeed.
Goes a long way toward explaining Comical’s and Desperate Dan’s desperate attempts at continually talking up the market.
There is a hugh amount at stake here and we now find ourselves in a very serious situation.
Who is the Central Bank official mentioned? (I want to find his papers)
OH MY GOOD GOD!!! SO THATS WHY THE JOBS LOSSES HAVENT BEEN AS SIGNIFICANT AS PREDICTED!!
Ladies and Gentlemem
We are all gonna pay for this one
serious serious serious *****!!!
If I had to guess it would be Gerard O’Reilly at the IEA Conference here during the Irish Housing Market session:
“We can only hope that this insane logic is correct, and that the refusal on ideological
principle of bank regulators to regulate banks does not lead to the same debacle here that
occurred with Savings and Loan Institutions in Reagan-era America.”
I think that Mr Developer should be made finance NDP part2 out of his own money.
It looks more and more like Finland in 1992 doesn’t it?
Either you’re joking and I just don’t get it (always a possibility) or you’re serious and I simply can’t see what the connection is. Why has the over-indebtedness of these people been described as the reason they haven’t axed many jobs?
Because the builders are borrowing more money in order to keep their staff on until the soft landing ends and they start making money again. 
That article is scary and depressing. If the state ever does have to bail out an Irish bank to that extent, then we can forget about ever having the funds to build the Dublin metro train lines, the national motorway system and all the other infrastructure we really need.
The celtic tiger era will then be over and we’ll be back to being the basket case of northern europe. Thanks Fianna Fail.
Now as it stands, according to that paper, The builders and property developers have our money.
Run…to your nearest ATM
Yes at least those sensible Scandinavians managed to build themselves a decent public transport system before they were forced to bailed out their banks.
I won’t have you say that!! We will still be left with wonderful legacies of the Celtic Tiger such as…uhhmmm…the Port Tunnel…and…er…the Spire…no ok, forget it … 
I’d wish they’d name those banks with a slice of that €100bn pie, we the bank customers need to know how exposed which banks are to all this
Don’t forget about the square trees on O’Connell St.
Dunno where you been Truthseeker but the vast bulk of the Motorway system is either 1) Built or 2) Being Built now and with a few jobs out to tender right now to start digging next year , mainly Dublin-Waterford.
When all of those contracts under way or starting in the next 6 months or so are finished out in 2010 the main cities will all have a motorway to Dublin, as will Wickila and Navan . Limerick - Galway will largely be done too.
The only large city with no motorway to Dublin will be Derry.
Dublin-Belfast is already finished, completely, to the border.
Therefore we will have a motorway network …if nothing else 
we will have one of them lads
I think with a figure like the one mentioned you can assume that pretty much all of them are possibilties. If this situation goes pear shaped as most here believe will be the case then where might someone find a safe place to put their money at present. Must be tax compliant!
Any suggestions?
Yep - what’s scarier than the headline 100bn (though it was 96bn at the end of June, which is the last report i can find), is the 41% rate of increase - it’s gone from 68bn to 96bn in a year.
I’m guessing / hoping that most of the big international banks will be safe enough once they clear out the damage from the US sub-prime debacle. Hopefully, that will be accounted for (if not fully sorted out) in the next few month, allowing a timely retreat from the tsunami about to hit the irish banks.