Irish bonds ‘great bargain’ - Somers

bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= … refer=home

Well he is the chap in charge of selling them, he’d be a shite salesman if he said anything else.

“Wouldn’t touch 'em with a barge pole mate, just tryin to shift them for a bloke I know”

There a verse of a well lnown song comes to mind when I hear stuff like that from Somers.

You gotta know when to hold em
Know when to fold em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run.

Never quite figured out why tho. :angry:

I’m in the Iron and Steel business, wife does the ironin’ I do the stealin’… Anyway take a look inside me suitcase, I’ve got these triple A rated Irish Government Bonds off a friend of a friend of Biffo you know yourself. Get a few bob off the Government, buy a few offa meself, put them in the ECB as collateral borrow loads more dosh and the jobs oxo. Is that the filth? Only buzzin’ this is all legit’, but if you see an angry mob let me know.

Buying Irish Bonds is alot like making love to a beautiful woman, you hand over large wads of cash to be taken for a ride…

Looks like the interest bill last year was the lowest ever achieved.

https://www.ntma.ie/ButtonGIF/2009/GIF/interest_cost_trend.gif

ntma.ie/NationalDebt/interestCost.php

https://www.ntma.ie/ButtonGIF/2009/GIF/ggd_gdp.gif

ntma.ie/NationalDebt/debtGDP.php

Iirsh govvie bonds are a good buy…

I’ve put some into my basket of joy, and will watch the NII roll in along with some nice and pretty cap appreication.

Sweet spreads over 3’s.

I just bought some CRH bonds (USD denominated) 2013 maturity and, at yesterday’s price, yielding about 12% p.a. to maturity.

Great deal, you’re basically getting a premium for CRH being tainted by the “Irish” angle. Reality is that Ireland hasn’t got a whole lot to do with CRH anymore and they look very healthy balance sheet wise… certainly healthier than 12% would imply anyway!

Sounds interesting, Daniel. How do you buy these bonds?

The Cusip is: 12626PAE3 which is all your broker should need.

I just bought them through my US bond broker, but my old man bought some through NCB (who are generally hopeless) so it can’t be too difficult!
They’re not massively liquid, you’ll just have to put a bid in and hope you get some. The ASK that I see at the moment is about 81 (11% yield) but I reckon you’ll get them eventually at 78’ish. As I said, IMO, it’s a fantastic deal, certainly makes the equity look very expensive in comparison. Obviously you have Dollar exposure too, which you might or might not like and you might or might not have the ability to hedge off.

cxa.marketwatch.com/finra/BondCe … I2MjZQQUUz

12% is a tad misleading is it not … unless you have found a way to avoid paying any tax federal/state/irish on the coupopn and also your assuming your reinvesting your coupon at the same rate.
but it does look worthy of further investigation

its all about opinions…
12% on CRH with dollar exp in my opinion isn’t amazing…not bad, not to be sniffed at, but not amazing.

You can tax free Muni bonds yielding 8% net of tax. Add in the Captial req and you’ll find that these give a better ROE…

My tuppence worth…

From a trading book prespective, 12% yield on 100% risk weigthing can’t compare to 5.8% yield on a soverign with a 0% risk weighting…

some of us don’t have to pay for it,

Tax – for me: complicated, involves islands, I’ll leave the rest to your imagination/innovation :wink: - fair point though - perhaps I should have pointed out that you may have to pay tax… seems a bit obvious to me though.

Reinvesting coupons - yes, absolutely, I’m just trying to keep it reasonably simple, most people struggle with bond parlance for some reason. It doesn’t make a huge difference to the returns tbf.

Dollar exp is not a problem for me. I pointed out that it may be for others. Some Munis look great value absolutely, but again some certainly don’t… Also, the board (and discussion) is Irish focussed which is why I pointed out the CRH issue, most readers are familiar with the company and particularly its equity, I’m sure you’d agree that the debt looks significantly better value than the equity. I’m obviously not saying PILE IN to CRH and leverage up while you’re at it, just pointing out a good investment opportunity for a well-diversified portfolio.
Oh, and “… a sovereign with a 0% risk weighting” … if you say so:wink:
Appreciate the thoughts & discussion though.

OOOOhhhhhh SHIT I thought it said ICELAND on the bonds,now i’ll never get my money back.

81/78 are cheap prices for CRH.

You have to ask, why is it being priced so cheaply? AAA-rated corporates are yielding about 8%, while junk-rated about 20%, I believe.